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January 7th-8th Threat

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow absolutely nothing here

 

I lost alot of sleep this week tracking this.

Why you continue to do this every storm is beyond me. This was always a minor to nothing event for most.

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow absolutely nothing here

 

I lost alot of sleep this week tracking this.

Join the glass half empty crowd, doesn't look good at first glance but we gots some high octane liquor in our glass

 

 

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29 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Why you continue to do this every storm is beyond me. This was always a minor to nothing event for most.

Yup.  But still something to track. 

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Wow absolutely nothing here

 

I lost alot of sleep this week tracking this.

Sleep is very important for health. I can understand losing sleep during the rare occasions when we're looking at a major snowstorm, but it's not worth it losing sleep over a potential snow event that would be minor at best. I hope you can stop doing this, for your health's sake.

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Verification

Atlantic City: Initial: 1" or less; Final: 1" or less; Actual: Trace (within range)
Baltimore: Initial: 1"-2"; Final: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.5" (within range)
Harrisburg: Initial: 1" or less; Final: 1" or less; Actual: 3.9"
Islip: Initial: 0.5" or less; Final: 1" or less; Actual: 0.4" (within range)
New York City: Initial: 0.5" or less; Final: 0.5" or less; Actual: 0.0" (within range)
Newark: Initial: 0.5" or less; Final: 0.5" or less; Actual: Trace (within range)
Philadelphia: Initial: 1" or less; Final: 1" or less; Actual: Trace (within range)
Sterling: Initial: 1"-3"; Final: 1"-3"; Actual: 2.0" (within range)
Washington, DC: Initial: 1"-2"; Final: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace
Wilmington, DE: Initial: 1"-2"; Final: 1"-2"; Actual: Trace

Note: Since January 1, 1950, Washington, DC (DCA) has never recorded measurable snowfall in January when the AO was +3.500 or above.

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Interesting at 7:30PM the NEXRAD radar was showing the precipitation shield "leap-frog" northeast NJ about 50-100 miles northeast.  This would seem that there was an energy transfer just as the storm approached our area?  Quite a tease, as we watched the precipitation move in a uniform manner from West Virginia, and then all of a sudden, skipped over our area.  Then again, precipitation doesn't actually act (or move) as a vehicle driving along a highway.  Rather, the low pressure system is continually propagating itself, as if the low pressure system is actually continually building the road out ahead of the vehicle. 

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So much for that one, sorry. This winter just keeps finding ways to suck. 
 

Heavy snow squall currently here in Syracuse, visibility under a quarter mile. We’re under a WWA today for 3-5” from snow squalls/lake effect. Believe it or not there was practically no snow on the ground until this morning. This winter blows even up here. 

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Good afternoon this Wednesday January 8th.

So,  I'd like to add my own view on this minor or nonexistent event for most of us. 

Just to let you know how difficult the unusual results. Scranton had ~2.5" in 5 hours 5-10P, Baltimore ~1.5" 3P-7P yesterday but the snow evaporated once you got into Sussex and parts of Warren County NJ with only flurries from there into n CT/Ma Pike. The probabilistic guidance graphic yesterday showed no chance of 1" in Scranton. It's imperfect. Ensemble graphics are objective and serve as a check against what the forecaster is otherwise considering in the modeling. 

EC and NAM/HRRR were worst offenders 00z-12z/7 runs...  RGEM/GGEM/GFS generally better and clearly noting the subsidence-evaporation far NNJ newd.  I thought the hrrrX was pretty decent. No matter, it's done.  

(One thing I saw in the NAM 00z-06z/7 runs was an attempt to form an 850 low s of LI.  I've seen that model attempt before, and fail with resultant qpf enhancement drained away.  

With regard to event specific threads...  I recommend them to keep things organized and it might actually help a few readers, especially if there is interest to expand. 

I've added water equiv graphic to show the unusual reality for the 7th.  I didn't have a decent snow map to add...but I do know that Carbon County high terrain had ~3" and also Dingmans in Pike County PA 0.9" 

Walt 08/1803z

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-08 at 12.50.39 PM.png

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0.8" snow total here, liquid 0.17"

The initial snow melted for a while and I think the ratio once it started accumulating was likely close to the traditional 10:1

I was expecting no more than a few hundredths liquid out of this event with no more than a dusting of snow, so in the glass half full category, for me this was an over performer.

Total seasonal snowfall in Smithtown is 6.4".  This puts us ahead of 1997-98 and 2011-2012, but we still have an inch to go to move ahead of 2001-2002 in the least snowfall category.

2001-2002 would have been even worse but we had one unusual local event to add a little interest during the brief wintry spell in January 2002:

http://www.northshorewx.com/LES20020107Case.html

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

0.8" snow total here, liquid 0.17"

The initial snow melted for a while and I think the ratio once it started accumulating was likely close to the traditional 10:1

I was expecting no more than a few hundredths liquid out of this event with no more than a dusting of snow, so in the glass half full category, for me this was an over performer.

Total seasonal snowfall in Smithtown is 6.4".  This puts us ahead of 1997-98 and 2011-2012, but we still have an inch to go to move ahead of 2001-2002 in the least snowfall category.

2001-2002 would have been even worse but we had one unusual local event to add a little interest during the brief wintry spell in January 2002:

http://www.northshorewx.com/LES20020107Case.html

 

 

 

Our numbers are in lockstep for this winter. We really can't complain. Looking for the first snow which needs to be shoveled. Still havent had to break out the snow shovel.

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3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Our numbers are in lockstep for this winter. We really can't complain. Looking for the first snow which needs to be shoveled. Still havent had to break out the snow shovel.

There's actually still a pretty good pile of snow in a parking lot of an office building on main street in Smithtown.  I go by it about once a week and it always surprises me.  I had to go poke at it the other day just to confirm it really is snow.  I have no idea where they found enough snow on pavement to plow into that pile or how it has survived this long.

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