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Jan 8th, 2020 Coastal - little critter


Baroclinic Zone
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Just now, CT Rain said:

I mean the 12km NAM looks pretty good 

It really does...if all the other guidance looked like that, you'd prob have to forecast advisory snows for BOS back to like E half of CT.

But it's a red flag to me that none of the weenie short term models that always show weenie solutions aren't biting. It's possible they are struggling with the complex interaction between the offshore redevelopment/convection and the main shortwave a bit west of that....but you'd think at least one of them would go wild if we were going to be getting advisory snows over a decent area.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It really does...if all the other guidance looked like that, you'd prob have to forecast advisory snows for BOS back to like E half of CT.

But it's a red flag to me that none of the weenie short term models that always show weenie solutions aren't biting. It's possible they are struggling with the complex interaction between the offshore redevelopment/convection and the main shortwave a bit west of that....but you'd think at least one of them would go wild if we were going to be getting advisory snows over a decent area.

I agree. None of the HREF members are biting so clearly the mesoscale/CAM guidance isn't biting. Wouldn't be shocked to see the globals like GFS and Euro tick NW some based on that 12km NAM depiction. 

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Heh, take away from this NAM solution is its behavior, not what it is showing on this run ... 

I realize "NAM still shows a crushing here " gets one to that excitement they're looking for ... but, these runs could end up being phantoms as others are also pointing out - might help protect one from disappointment if they focus on that. 

Historically the NAM does this in short term sort of 24 to 36 hour lead windows with these NW hiccups thing.  We've seen countless times... Then it settles back - the bump E even by a subtle margin is exposing that instability.   Yeah, it's just not a good model really ... particularly for gauging impacts because it does these synoptic two-steps too frequently. 

I think at this range if it isn't getting support from the other meso tools and/or the higher resolution/reputable G-scale numerical model types, one should put it's odds at success as very low confidence.  

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS looks very slightly more NW...we're talking very slim changes. But that's better than worse....keeps SE folks in the game.

Interesting that it looks a hair worse at 24h for Maine...but it was def a little better further south down near S coast of CT and LI.

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man I hope we could pull a Jan 30th 2018 surprise 

I remember we had that weenie band out ahead and NW of the man precip shield late that night....it went from you to me...we were the only ones snowing for several hours on the forum....this little narrow band. Everyone else was virga or nothing. I had about 2" of fluff from that band....I think the stuff early the next morning I got another couple to 3 inches. SE MA got like 8".

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting that it looks a hair worse at 24h for Maine...but it was def a little better further south down near S coast of CT and LI.

The kick east has been the demise up here for this and that has not changed, Basically, Were left with some snow from the trough overhead but god only knows where that will end up, I favor the mountains for this.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember we had that weenie band out ahead and NW of the man precip shield late that night....it went from you to me...we were the only ones snowing for several hours on the forum....this little narrow band. Everyone else was virga or nothing. I had about 2" of fluff from that band....I think the stuff early the next morning I got another couple to 3 inches. SE MA got like 8".

8" ain't happening James on this one though.

 

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21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You want to see how fickle things can be Look back at this. Lol Scott and Kevin threw in the towel, 18 hrs prior

 

Screenshot_20200107-103913_Chrome.jpg

 

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Similarities in how it could play out... I think we ended up 6+ here. Didn’t look good very close in either 

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't remember that one. Probably was a POS. 

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You must've done ok...I had like 4" here. BOS had like 3" maybe?

 

My Snow Record for that one.:D

01/30/2018 8.00 Busted Raviolis all over
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