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George BM

January Banter 2020

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2 hours ago, 87storms said:

never know what people are going through and she could be telling white lies for you all know to cover up something she didn't want to share.  i would ack the email and say it's not a big deal, move on, and chalk it up as strike one.  let her make the next move, though.

Good point. I did not reply. Letting it go. Thanks for your thoughts :)

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve been “trying” to analyze each mostly lottery ticket level “threat” independently and not be too annoying with constant negativity but once the base state pattern showed itself around New Years I put any expectations for snow to bed.   There were a few exceptions where things suddenly flipped late, and most of those years lucked into at least 1-2 snows somewhere...but the fact was what we were facing was the worst base state we could possibly get. In every way. I even told my wife around New Years we might not get much if any snow even up here and that in that case I would take the family on a weekend trip somewhere to let the kids play in the snow.  Then we did luck our way into that one nice event up here..but even that took so much luck and was barely cold enough during the coldest week of the year even up here.  But while I continue to track in the hope of a fluke or a pattern change I haven’t expected anything. And I’ve kind of expected the long range looks to degrade because the fact is something is consistently feeding that ridge in the pac and that sets off a chain reaction of suck downstream in the high and mid latitudes. Until that forcing chances and I am skeptical it does, were in trouble. Our best chance remains late Feb into March when changing wavelengths, weakening PV and volatility change the reactions to that forcing and open the possibility of a better result. 

Yeah, this has been a very frustrating year with regard to anything that can fail for us, found a way to fail.  We've seen a handful of good looks, sure, but they quickly disappeared.  Or a couple of models would show it, but others would indicate an unfavorable scenario.  That's different from last year, when (as I recall?) most every model and ensemble was pointing toward a very good pattern but it just never really occurred (I'm thinking of last part of Dec and into Jan, there about).

I've said this before, I know, but you've been spot-on with the warnings that if certain things lined up like some of the guidance was definitely showing, we might be in serious trouble.  Those warnings were correct, not so much because we're witnessing it real-time now, but even if we didn't, the hypothetical idea was right (if that makes sense).  Unfortunately, we've seen what seems to be just about everything (or at least too many things) work out wrong.  Perfect 988 coastal location off Hatteras and then Ocean City?  Holy cow, the entire eastern seaboard should get bombed!  Oh, wait...sorry, the antecedent airmass sucks, and we've got too much southerly flow beforehand, so it's rain all the way to the NY state line!  Nice, solid, cold-air damming situation even with a storm to our west?  We should get a decent thump to ice to drizzle!  Nope...the precip is too light as the low went way too far west, resulting in the moisture trajectory going elsewhere.  So we get 2 flakes and then light rain.

I'm not giving up hope for...something!...quite yet.  And by something, I mean not just an inch or two of slush that barely stays on the sidewalks.  No, I'm not talking about a HECS or even a near-HECS.  But I hold out hope for a general warning-level event sometime Feb/Mar, with some good cold air, that everyone will like.  I know there are some here who don't care for late-season snows (like in March), but personally, I'd be fine with a storm in the first part of March even if it's not something that will be on the ground for a long time.  Hell, we had enough times in that month within recent memory that actually were below freezing during the day, even a couple of days, around a storm.

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15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I was out during the 12z model runs...can someone call 911 for Bob and PSU...man those two had a rough afternoon...Ji being positive lol

Ji being positive?

Dogs and cats, living together!

Mass hysteria!!

(Just for the Reaper, I should probably add "The dead rising from the grave!" line from Ghostbusters, as well!!)

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Ji being positive?

Dogs and cats, living together!

Mass hysteria!!

(Just for the Reaper, I should probably add "The dead rising from the grave!" line from Ghostbusters, as well!!)

 

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JFC. Ji needs to dial back the posting. He’s doing his manic act now. The meltdown is coming

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43 minutes ago, GATECH said:

This Winter Sucks!  Even Canaan Valley, WV is brown!  

I had a few good bursts of snow showers here this afternoon...0.1” before it melted.  It just started snowing again.  NWS Pitt forecasting 1-2” for Canaan & Deep Creek...hopefully we boom so you’re able to get some good snows.  

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I had a few good bursts of snow showers here this afternoon...0.1” before it melted.  It just started snowing again.  NWS Pitt forecasting 1-2” for Canaan & Deep Creek...hopefully we boom so you’re able to get some good snows.  

LOL it’s been a terrible winter out there too. No way to sugar coat it. There has almost no reason for me to chase snow out there. 

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL it’s been a terrible winter out there too. No way to sugar coat it. There has almost no reason for me to chase snow out there. 

It’s been shitty relatively speaking, no other way to describe it.  We haven’t even hit 30” when the annual is 110”.  Lake has yet to actually freeze...it came close this week though.  

However, I’m at less than 1” back at home so coming out here and getting 1-3” feels like a blizzard.  I’ll come back here next weekend if the 18z GFS plays out that way.

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3 hours ago, mappy said:

Good point. I did not reply. Letting it go. Thanks for your thoughts :)

no probs.  not replying is completely valid in that case.  unfortunately, i'm not as good with that as i should be. lol

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4 hours ago, RDM said:

The other comment about the frustration in this year's models constantly teasing us in the med to LR to just go poof a few days later pretty much sums up this entire season dating back to Oct.  There were hints of an early start mid-Nov only to go poof, indications Dec would start off well - same - poof - then hints of a white Christmas, ditto...  Then we were looking at a rocking Jan, only to....   SSDD (Same Sh*t Different Day).

Maybe I just missed it, but with one exception, I really don't feel we got too teased.  Early December looked "meh" on the LR models, and it turned out to be exactly "meh".  I even remember people commenting on how "meh" it was. 

Then somewhere around the 10th or so, the EPS caught the Pac puke.  The GEFS fought for a few days but it still had it figured out 10+ days ahead.  And Lo it came to pass. 

Then the LR guidance foresaw there would be a brief improvement in early Jan, and Lo it came to pass.  Some of you guys got some snow.

Then the guidance saw the coming of the Pacific Doom Blob 10 - 15 days out, and Lo, it came to pass.

The one exception of course was two weeks ago where everybody was seeing a nice pattern flip into a cold EPO-based trough with maybe even a nice STJ undercutting, and we started to salivate.  Then, apparently demotiviated by the Raven's loss, the models decided to change tack and call for a Canadian ridge cutting all cold air off from us.  And Lo it came to pass (or is in the process of coming to pass).

Other than that, the models have just tended to correctly foresee a parade of failures and disappointments. 

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I still to this day get bummed that I missed 93&96. Especially 96. It was't like I was suffering living in the Rockies but for whatever weird reason big east coast storms are really important to me. It's an affliction that we all share here. Those that don't get it will never get it. Those that are afflicted can never get enough....

You’re not kidding. Grew up near Scranton, PA. Was 7 for 1993 and 10 for 1996. In high school for PD2. Then I decided to go to school in San Antonio and love there for a year after school (2004-2009), it was a great time, but dang did I miss big east coast snow storms. Got a job and moved to DC in August 2009, wow what a year to move to DC. Lived in Philly for 12/2010 and 1/2011. And now I find my self outside Fredericksburg. 2016 was great, but man oh man, I cannot wait for the next one. That’s what keeps me going, knowing eventually everything will line up and we will get buried again. You’re absolutely right, you can never get enough!

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27 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

You’re not kidding. Grew up near Scranton, PA. Was 7 for 1993 and 10 for 1996. In high school for PD2. Then I decided to go to school in San Antonio and love there for a year after school (2004-2009), it was a great time, but dang did I miss big east coast snow storms. Got a job and moved to DC in August 2009, wow what a year to move to DC. Lived in Philly for 12/2010 and 1/2011. And now I find my self outside Fredericksburg. 2016 was great, but man oh man, I cannot wait for the next one. That’s what keeps me going, knowing eventually everything will line up and we will get buried again. You’re absolutely right, you can never get enough!

I was home from college for winter break in 1996 - in Central NJ.  We got 30” from that storm.  Still the most I have ever seen from one storm.  My dad and I were up to our waists shoveling.  

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3 hours ago, nj2va said:

I had a few good bursts of snow showers here this afternoon...0.1” before it melted.  It just started snowing again.  NWS Pitt forecasting 1-2” for Canaan & Deep Creek...hopefully we boom so you’re able to get some good snows.  

Hoping for the best.  I would be happy with  1-2 at this point.  

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March 93 was the strongest storm I ever lived through.  I was in southern PA at the time.  Whiteout conditions.  50 mph sustained winds throughout.  I honestly felt like I was atop Mount Washington with those crazy weather conditions.

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The sounding is crap though. This is for up around Hanover and temps are above freezing from just under the 850's all the way down to the surface. Awful deep warm layer to try to overcome even with very good rates. And the soundings get even worse as you move down towards DC. Only finally see improvement as the surface and lower level winds shift from the north as the low is pulling away. 

sounding.gif.b69fcbe9ce58283d33ed140f4b83dfa8.gif

 

Good to see you posting again.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Good to see you posting again.

Been too depressing in here for awhile now with the model disco almost unreadable most times. Hard to enjoy that. Add in the fact I really didn't have much in the way of positive vibes to add to the discussion equals me taking a timeout for awhile excepting some casual lurking. And no, I don't need a Reaper call. :lol:

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26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Been too depressing in here for awhile now with the model disco almost unreadable most times. Hard to enjoy that. Add in the fact I really didn't have much in the way of positive vibes to add to the discussion equals me taking a timeout for awhile excepting some casual lurking. And no, I don't need a Reaper call. :lol:

653-03843137en_Masterfile.jpg

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

653-03843137en_Masterfile.jpg

If this were a painting or photo in an art museum, the caption would read:

"The Distraught Reaper:  How he almost got @showmethesnow's soul, but was denied a call yet again.  The astute observer will note the extreme disappointment in the skull-like face as he looks down at the table, while drowning his sorrows in bourbon.  Oil on canvas, circa January 2020."

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