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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Really good growth right now below the beam.

Over 4 yet?  My Friday forecast. As usual my southern extent was too high.

 Brian 4 to 8 Gene to Jeffafafa 8 to 12 then Hunchie Ray 3 to 6 Hippy to ORH 2 to 4 with sleet ice snow. Jerry  Boston South of Pike to 84 1 to 3, a period of snow sleet ice south of that maybe an inch with NCT Mass border 2 with maybe .2 ice

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33 minutes ago, White Rain said:

30.9, Everything glazed over still. We were 28.4 at midnight. 

 

Lost power at 5 AM and white pines losing branches like crazy. Down here in FIT though not much ice at all and temps above freezing. 

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44 minutes ago, White Rain said:

30.9, Everything glazed over still. We were 28.4 at midnight. 

568E68F4-E52D-49F3-9522-79044FB8DECE.thumb.jpeg.5307087bc4dc872d700c5e60ed27d1cc.jpeg

Yup.. echo that visage over here in Ayer.

Looks like we did end up with ~ .2" of accretion from this thing after all, and 2 .. maybe 3" of cement on the ground. Icing was having difficulty taking place prior to last evening.  We were either IP, or wet snow much of the day, then got interesting.  We had a couple of thunderstorm around supper time - of all things ... Nary a peep re thunder in any forecast efforts that I saw prior to the event. Nonetheless, flash-boom-ba, with very large sleet pellets - probably stuck together... We then settled back into moderate sleet and ZR, in a fog of pixie dust, with temperature sliding into the upper 20s... Worse part of the storm for us over here was definitely between 5pm and midnight last evening, with anything prior to quite forgettable.  It was tough getting around and just nasty out of doors last night.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup.. echo that visage over here in Ayer.

Looks like we did end up with ~ .2" of accretion from this thing after all, and 2 .. maybe 3" of cement on the ground. Icing was having difficulty taking place prior to last evening.  We were either IP, or wet snow much of the day, then got interesting.  We had a couple of thunderstorm around supper time - of all things ... Nary a peep in any forecast efforts that I saw prior to the event, but flash-boom-ba, with heavy fall rates... We then had moderate sleet and ZR and pixie dust, with temperature sliding into the upper 20s... Worse part of the storm for us over hear was definitely between 5pm and midnight last evening, with anything prior to quite forgettable.  It was tough getting around and just nasty out of doors last night.

Ditto, tough we never dipped below 30*.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup.. echo that visage over here in Ayer.

Looks like we did end up with ~ .2" of accretion from this thing after all.  That aspect was having difficulty taking place.  We were either IP, or wet snow much of the day yesterday and then last night go interesting.  We had a couple of thunderstorm - of all things ... Nary a peep in any forecast efforts that I saw prior to the event, but flash-boom-ba, with heavy fall rates... We then had moderate sleet and ZR and pixie dust, with temperature sliding into the upper 20s... Worse part of the storm for us over hear was definitely between 5pm and midnight last evening, with anything prior to quite forgettable.  It was tough getting around and just nasty out of doors last night.

Yeah the sfc cold drain finally happened in more earnest late yesterday into the evening when model guidance said temps should have been rising. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the sfc cold drain finally happened in more earnest late yesterday into the evening when model guidance said temps should have been rising. 

Lol, message received loud and clear... That was the one thing we danced around before this thing, and that is that the models would f that up one way or the other. 

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6 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

3.8" total. A little glazing, but the trees are caked with snow from the wetter stuff yesterday during the day

Really an impressive melange event.   Our glaze is the 'gray' type, because it's 90/10 water and pixie crystals mixed, which just means there a bit of air trapped in the ice.  

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the sfc cold drain finally happened in more earnest late yesterday into the evening when model guidance said temps should have been rising. 

I looked back at mos and it was by far the best in the MHT-ASH corridor. Far better than 2mt. I guess it should be, but it was more pronounced than most events. 

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11 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I looked back at mos and it was by far the best in the MHT-ASH corridor. Far better than 2mt. I guess it should be, but it was more pronounced than most events. 

Yeah, Will and I were musing about the cold thrust possibilities... We figured - climo and experience - that the models wouldn't really see that discrete of a detailed behavior because it is still outside their resolution wheel-house.  Something about the planetary/atmospheric interface ... the geo-physics are missing? It needs furthering science and evolution, because it's an area of modeling that as far as I can tell, is invisible to them.  So, they set up but don't do the push, or that tornado ... you know?  ... But it's up to human interpretation and experience to then modulate/fill in for those disadvantages. The art is not going overboard with buns and ketchup, heh 

And to your point, .. MOS is a climate sloped product as we know, so it performing better intuitively fits there.

 

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11 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I looked back at mos and it was by far the best in the MHT-ASH corridor. Far better than 2mt. I guess it should be, but it was more pronounced than most events. 

Guidance was really bad with furnacing to Winni last night. It actually warmed a bit inside 495 up to Ray, but the drain was certainly in the interior. I thought we did well calling that out. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

12.3" as of this morning, and still snowing.

Time to dig into where guidance whiffed on this since I wasn't on shift and looking at the trends.

Without really looking hard, I think the narrow area where the warming halted or did not come as far north as predicted combined with the secondary and extended snows was an excellent combo. Guidance was warming past Lewiston. I remember thinking that would be hard. I’m curious as to what you find. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

12.3" as of this morning, and still snowing.

Time to dig into where guidance whiffed on this since I wasn't on shift and looking at the trends.

Nice.  Shawnee reporting 11" as of 5:30AM.  Probably tacked on a couple more since then.

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

12.3" as of this morning, and still snowing.

Time to dig into where guidance whiffed on this since I wasn't on shift and looking at the trends.

Heard Local met say the cold air to the north kept feeding south, producing precip.

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

12.3" as of this morning, and still snowing.

Time to dig into where guidance whiffed on this since I wasn't on shift and looking at the trends.

Congrats Leggy

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Without really looking hard, I think the narrow area where the warming halted or did not come as far north as predicted combined with the secondary and extended snows was an excellent combo. Guidance was warming past Lewiston. I remember thinking that would be hard. I’m curious as to what you find. 

 

Just now, Lava Rock said:

Heard Local met say the cold air to the north kept feeding south, producing precip.

I know that the models overplayed the dry air eating away the northern edge of the precip. That was forecast to basically push precip back into NH for the day yesterday. Never happened and stayed predominantly snow around here.

But also I want to look into why were models so warm initially only to flip to a very wintry system. Ensemble sensitivity is archived for at least a month, so I want to look into it from that perspective.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

 

I know that the models overplayed the dry air eating away the northern edge of the precip. That was forecast to basically push precip back into NH for the day yesterday. Never happened and stayed predominantly snow around here.

But also I want to look into why were models so warm initially only to flip to a very wintry system. Ensemble sensitivity is archived for at least a month, so I want to look into it from that perspective.

Regardless, your 8-12" call early yesterday was solid for our area.

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1.3”/0.16” overnight

5.6”/1.74” total

Needless to say the snowbanks look impressive for under a half foot of frozen. There’s basically no additional compaction when you move it. It’s equivalent to a 2ft fluff bomb.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

I know that the models overplayed the dry air eating away the northern edge of the precip. That was forecast to basically push precip back into NH for the day yesterday. Never happened and stayed predominantly snow around here.

But also I want to look into why were models so warm initially only to flip to a very wintry system. Ensemble sensitivity is archived for at least a month, so I want to look into it from that perspective.

I’m pretty sure you stole my snow from the euro. That strip the clowns kept painting in the double digits verified just a bit east of here. You had some good low level salt aided snows coming from offshore last evening too. You could see the cells moving E to W on GYX below the midlevel echoes.

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Normally I don't lay things out like this, but last nights events over the course of about 60 minutes were too crazy not to document.
I left Manchester at about 5:00pm and the sleet was just starting out.  Not just sleet, but rumbles of thunder, and flashes of lightning.  The temp was about 35F.  By the time I got on to 84 east the sleet had picked up in intensity, as did the thunder and lightning.  By the time I got to the STRIP CLUB and Tolland exits sh*t was starting to get real.  The sleet was pouring down, visibility sucked, and the thunder was so loud that it shook the car.  

[My normal route to Brooklyn is route 6, which, after Bolton Notch (junctions of 384/44/6) only has moderate, graduate elevation changes... until I get to Chaplin and Brooklyn. But when I go to Melina's place in Dayville I take 84 East to route 74.  This route is much different.  As you can somewhat see with the topo map there are some decent hills and valleys.  Some of them have a pretty decent incline.  This is the roller coaster trip so to speak.]   

...Once I got to the rte 74 exit all hell broke loose.  There is an incline not to far after the ramp, and from there it was quite the treacherous ride.  The temp was 32 by then and snow was now mixing in.  Overall I passed 4 accidents, all of them ending with someone in a ditch, or hitting a pole or tree.  The sleet was so sudden that people did not have much time to react.  One accident had me arriving just after it happened.  I got out to help the guy but he was fine.  It has been a long time since I have driven in something like this, and with a 2 wheel drive I had to be real careful, and drive slow.  ...Except at the inclines.  I was pulling over to give the people enough time to get ahead of me so I could get enough speed and momentum to make it over the crests.  A few times I thought I was going to be a chump and have to back down the hill, but luckily that was never the case.  Sure, it was only about .75" of sleet , but that is all it takes for chaos to take over.  

sleet storm 3.jpg

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