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Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave

 

 

That’s really extreme. This experimental forecast that came out in November may be onto something. 

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/early-warning-physicists-from-giessen-potsdam-and-tel-aviv-forecast-el-nino-for-2020

Early warning: Physicists from Giessen, Potsdam and Tel Aviv forecast "El Niño" for 2020 

 
04/11/2019 -The serious weather phenomenon "El Niño" could soon occur again in the Pacific region. Researchers at Justus Liebig University Giessen (JLU), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, Israel, find that there will probably be another "El Niño" by the end of 2020. The prediction models commonly used do not yet see any signs of this.
Early warning: Physicists from Giessen, Potsdam and Tel Aviv forecast "El Niño" for 2020

Schematic figure of the pacific. The red rectangle denotes the area where the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is measured. 

The groundbreaking early forecast is based on a novel algorithm developed by the researchers, which is relies on a network analysis of air temperatures in the Pacific region and which correctly predicted the last two "El Niño" events more than a year in advance. Such long-term predictions can, for example, help farmers in Brazil, Australia or India to prepare themselves and adjust their sowing accordingly.

A probability of around 80 percent

"Conventional methods are unable to make a reliable 'El Niño' forecast more than six months in advance. With our method, we have roughly doubled the previous warning time," stresses JLU physicist Armin Bunde, who initiated the development of the algorithm together with his former PhD student Josef Ludescher. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director Emeritus of PIK, explains: "This clever combination of measured data and mathematics gives us unique insights - and we make these available to the people affected.” He points out that, of course, the prediction method does not offer one hundred percent certainty: "The probability of 'El Niño' coming in 2020 is around 80 percent. But that's pretty significant."

Josef Ludescher, who now works at PIK, emphasizes: "We also predicted the absence of another 'El Niño' in 2019 at the end of last year. Only since July have the official forecasts agreed with our forecast." The team is currently expanding the algorithm in order to be able to forecast also the strength and length of the weather phenomenon in the future.

Empty fishing nets, torrential rainfall, extended droughts

With a conventional early warning period of at most half a year so far, people in the tropics and subtropics are poorly prepared for the often devastating consequences of "El Niño" (Spanish for "the Godly Child") at irregular intervals around Christmas - empty fishing nets and torrential rainfall in Peru as well as extended droughts in parts of South America, Indonesia, Australia and Africa. In addition, the Indian subcontinent may experience a change in monsoon patterns and California may experience more precipitation.

For their investigations, the researchers use a network of atmospheric temperature data in the tropical Pacific consisting of 14 grid points in the equatorial "El Niño" core area, and 193 points in the Pacific outside this core area. The physicists had discovered that already in the year before the eruption of an "El Niño", the teleconnection effect between the air temperatures inside and outside of the core area becomes considerably stronger. In particular, they used this effect to optimize their prediction algorithm.

The discovery of the new method was first published in summer 2013 in an article in the renowned "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences". Reliable data from the period between the beginning of 1950 and the end of 2011 were available to the researchers for the investigations. The period between 1950 and 1980 served them as a learning phase for determining the alarm thresholds. With the help of this algorithm, the "El Niño" events could then be predicted and compared with the actual events. In 80 percent of the cases, the alarm was correct and the "El Niño" event could be accurately predicted the year before.

 

Article: Josef Ludescher, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2019): Very early warning signal for El Niño in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood. arXiv:1910.14642

Weblink to the article: https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.14642

Support: This work was supported by the East Africa Peru India Climate Capacities (EPICC) project. This project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag. Please find more information on the project here: https://www.international-climate-initiative.com/en/nc/details/project/climate-capacity-building-risk-anticipation-and-minimization-18_II_149-3007

For further information please contact: 
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: [email protected]
Twitter: @PIK_Climate

www.pik-potsdam.de

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FWIW the weeklies Flip the Pattern by February 8th. Huge -epo/+pna with some higher hgts near Greenland. It’s basically the end of the eps rolled forward off my previous post. It keeps that look into March. 

 

Is this correct? Idk. I think the kelvin wave will weaken in p5 as the mjo heads towards cod. As for the strat looks like activity picks up there towards mid month. 

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

FWIW the weeklies Flip the Pattern by February 8th. Huge -epo/+pna with some higher hgts near Greenland. It’s basically the end of the eps rolled forward off my previous post. It keeps that look into March. 

 

Is this correct? Idk. I think the kelvin wave will weaken in p5 as the mjo heads towards cod. As for the strat looks like activity picks up there towards mid month. 

Seems like that will fit the pattern where March is really cold and active. 

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6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

What does this translate locally? 

It had a big hand in Why the models went away from the cold stormy look in the long range. Look back a bit for @bluewave posts. He had some great information on it. 

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40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

After a morning low temperature of 20°, the temperature remained mainly in the 20s this afternoon before topping out at 31°.

Some photos of ice are below:

Simply terrific abstract and macro shots. Ice is always a great subject... it has been a dream of mine for a while to photograph the methane bubbles on Alberta's Abraham Lake in the winter.

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24 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Simply terrific abstract and macro shots. Ice is always a great subject... it has been a dream of mine for a while to photograph the methane bubbles on Alberta's Abraham Lake in the winter.

Thanks for the kind words. I hope you get the chance to photograph the methane bubbles at some point in the future.

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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s really extreme. This experimental forecast that came out in November may be onto something. 

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/early-warning-physicists-from-giessen-potsdam-and-tel-aviv-forecast-el-nino-for-2020

Early warning: Physicists from Giessen, Potsdam and Tel Aviv forecast "El Niño" for 2020 

 
04/11/2019 -The serious weather phenomenon "El Niño" could soon occur again in the Pacific region. Researchers at Justus Liebig University Giessen (JLU), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, Israel, find that there will probably be another "El Niño" by the end of 2020. The prediction models commonly used do not yet see any signs of this.
Early warning: Physicists from Giessen, Potsdam and Tel Aviv forecast "El Niño" for 2020

Schematic figure of the pacific. The red rectangle denotes the area where the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is measured. 

The groundbreaking early forecast is based on a novel algorithm developed by the researchers, which is relies on a network analysis of air temperatures in the Pacific region and which correctly predicted the last two "El Niño" events more than a year in advance. Such long-term predictions can, for example, help farmers in Brazil, Australia or India to prepare themselves and adjust their sowing accordingly.

A probability of around 80 percent

"Conventional methods are unable to make a reliable 'El Niño' forecast more than six months in advance. With our method, we have roughly doubled the previous warning time," stresses JLU physicist Armin Bunde, who initiated the development of the algorithm together with his former PhD student Josef Ludescher. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director Emeritus of PIK, explains: "This clever combination of measured data and mathematics gives us unique insights - and we make these available to the people affected.” He points out that, of course, the prediction method does not offer one hundred percent certainty: "The probability of 'El Niño' coming in 2020 is around 80 percent. But that's pretty significant."

Josef Ludescher, who now works at PIK, emphasizes: "We also predicted the absence of another 'El Niño' in 2019 at the end of last year. Only since July have the official forecasts agreed with our forecast." The team is currently expanding the algorithm in order to be able to forecast also the strength and length of the weather phenomenon in the future.

Empty fishing nets, torrential rainfall, extended droughts

With a conventional early warning period of at most half a year so far, people in the tropics and subtropics are poorly prepared for the often devastating consequences of "El Niño" (Spanish for "the Godly Child") at irregular intervals around Christmas - empty fishing nets and torrential rainfall in Peru as well as extended droughts in parts of South America, Indonesia, Australia and Africa. In addition, the Indian subcontinent may experience a change in monsoon patterns and California may experience more precipitation.

For their investigations, the researchers use a network of atmospheric temperature data in the tropical Pacific consisting of 14 grid points in the equatorial "El Niño" core area, and 193 points in the Pacific outside this core area. The physicists had discovered that already in the year before the eruption of an "El Niño", the teleconnection effect between the air temperatures inside and outside of the core area becomes considerably stronger. In particular, they used this effect to optimize their prediction algorithm.

The discovery of the new method was first published in summer 2013 in an article in the renowned "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences". Reliable data from the period between the beginning of 1950 and the end of 2011 were available to the researchers for the investigations. The period between 1950 and 1980 served them as a learning phase for determining the alarm thresholds. With the help of this algorithm, the "El Niño" events could then be predicted and compared with the actual events. In 80 percent of the cases, the alarm was correct and the "El Niño" event could be accurately predicted the year before.

 

Article: Josef Ludescher, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2019): Very early warning signal for El Niño in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood. arXiv:1910.14642

Weblink to the article: https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.14642

Support: This work was supported by the East Africa Peru India Climate Capacities (EPICC) project. This project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag. Please find more information on the project here: https://www.international-climate-initiative.com/en/nc/details/project/climate-capacity-building-risk-anticipation-and-minimization-18_II_149-3007

For further information please contact: 
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: [email protected]
Twitter: @PIK_Climate

www.pik-potsdam.de

Thanks for sharing this interesting research.

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For the second time this month, the temperature fell to 20° in New York City. Tonight, readings approach and possibly fall just below 20° in Central Park. Following another chilly day tomorrow, warmer conditions will likely develop.

Somewhat colder air could return during the closing days of January, but the risk that January could end on a mild note has increased. A mild finish to a very warm January does not mean that February will likely be warmer than normal. The coefficient of determination for New York City between the January and February temperatures is just 0.07.

Colder air could return during or just after the first week in February.

In addition, so long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall would likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates)
ENSO R1+2 < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates)
ENSO R1+2 > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was +2.93 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.687.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 28. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 19, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.646 (RMM). The January 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.909.

The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 99% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 38.0° in New York City. The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased to just over 40%.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

FWIW the weeklies Flip the Pattern by February 8th. Huge -epo/+pna with some higher hgts near Greenland. It’s basically the end of the eps rolled forward off my previous post. It keeps that look into March. 

 

Is this correct? Idk. I think the kelvin wave will weaken in p5 as the mjo heads towards cod. As for the strat looks like activity picks up there towards mid month. 

Weeklies showed this all last winter and the big pattern never materialized. Color me skeptical 

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Weeklies showed this all last winter and the big pattern never materialized. Color me skeptical 

I agree. Until I see it inside day 7 color me skeptical as well. It takes the cold pool from Ak and moves it into the conus. 

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43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Weeklies showed this all last winter and the big pattern never materialized. Color me skeptical 

Beyond two weeks, they typically don't fare better than climatology.

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52 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I agree. Until I see it inside day 7 color me skeptical as well. It takes the cold pool from Ak and moves it into the conus. 

Same here. I won’t believe a pattern change until it shows up inside 7 days. These +EPO /+NAO patterns  can be very difficult to dislodge.

 

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1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

What does an El Niño typically mean for the northeast? 

In general, an El Niño leads to a more active subtropical jet stream and a northward displacement of the polar jet stream.  That's the general idea, but differences exist, because differences in anomalies in each of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO Regions) have an impact. Major ENSO Regions, from East to West, are Region 1+2, Region 3, Region 3.4, and Region 4. Often, when the El Niño is Central Pacific-based (Region 3.4 anomaly > Region 1+2 anomaly), the subtropical jet is active, but the polar jet is not displaced as far to the north as would be the case in an East-based or basin-wide El Niño event. Therefore, one often sees above average snowfall in the Northeast. 

Here's a useful link that explains El Niño: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-niño-and-la-niña-frequently-asked-questions

Here's a good link to take a look at El Niño impacts: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climategovs-most-requested-el-niño-and-la-niña-images

One should keep in mind, other variables can interact with El Niño producing different outcomes. For example, extreme Atlantic blocking during a strong El Niño during winter 2009-10 led to a colder than normal winter overall with very high seasonal snowfall.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, an El Niño leads to a more active subtropical jet stream and a northward displacement of the polar jet stream.  That's the general idea, but differences exist, because differences in anomalies in each of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO Regions) have an impact. Major ENSO Regions, from East to West, are Region 1+2, Region 3, Region 3.4, and Region 4. Often, when the El Niño is Central Pacific-based (Region 3.4 anomaly > Region 1+2 anomaly), the subtropical jet is active, but the polar jet is not displaced as far to the north as would be the case in an East-based or basin-wide El Niño event. Therefore, one often sees above average snowfall in the Northeast. 

Here's a useful link that explains El Niño: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-niño-and-la-niña-frequently-asked-questions

Here's a good link to take a look at El Niño impacts: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climategovs-most-requested-el-niño-and-la-niña-images

One should keep in mind, other variables can interact with El Niño producing different outcomes. For example, extreme Atlantic blocking during a strong El Niño during winter 2009-10 led to a colder than normal winter overall with very high seasonal snowfall.

Thank you 

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same here. I won’t believe a pattern change until it shows up inside 7 days. These +EPO /+NAO patterns  can be very difficult to dislodge.

 

If I had to guess I think any change will be more towards mid February. Basically in line with @Isotherm thinking. Probably more of a pattern for sustained cold.

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28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, an El Niño leads to a more active subtropical jet stream and a northward displacement of the polar jet stream.  That's the general idea, but differences exist, because differences in anomalies in each of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO Regions) have an impact. Major ENSO Regions, from East to West, are Region 1+2, Region 3, Region 3.4, and Region 4. Often, when the El Niño is Central Pacific-based (Region 3.4 anomaly > Region 1+2 anomaly), the subtropical jet is active, but the polar jet is not displaced as far to the north as would be the case in an East-based or basin-wide El Niño event. Therefore, one often sees above average snowfall in the Northeast. 

Here's a useful link that explains El Niño: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-niño-and-la-niña-frequently-asked-questions

Here's a good link to take a look at El Niño impacts: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climategovs-most-requested-el-niño-and-la-niña-images

One should keep in mind, other variables can interact with El Niño producing different outcomes. For example, extreme Atlantic blocking during a strong El Niño during winter 2009-10 led to a colder than normal winter overall with very high seasonal snowfall.

I always thought El Niño led to warmer winter with less snow. 

 

well I guess we have good news for next winter if it is developing. 

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4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I always thought El Niño led to warmer winter with less snow. 

 

well I guess we have good news for next winter if it is developing. 

It depends on the kind of ENSO event. A strong basin-wide event would likely lead to warmth absent strong blocking.

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, an El Niño leads to a more active subtropical jet stream and a northward displacement of the polar jet stream.  That's the general idea, but differences exist, because differences in anomalies in each of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO Regions) have an impact. Major ENSO Regions, from East to West, are Region 1+2, Region 3, Region 3.4, and Region 4. Often, when the El Niño is Central Pacific-based (Region 3.4 anomaly > Region 1+2 anomaly), the subtropical jet is active, but the polar jet is not displaced as far to the north as would be the case in an East-based or basin-wide El Niño event. Therefore, one often sees above average snowfall in the Northeast. 

Here's a useful link that explains El Niño: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-niño-and-la-niña-frequently-asked-questions

Here's a good link to take a look at El Niño impacts: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climategovs-most-requested-el-niño-and-la-niña-images

One should keep in mind, other variables can interact with El Niño producing different outcomes. For example, extreme Atlantic blocking during a strong El Niño during winter 2009-10 led to a colder than normal winter overall with very high seasonal snowfall.

I'll take another 9/10. Thanks :) 

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50 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Very cold morning out there.

Current temp 19

Same here...this may be our coldest reading for the month, which is pretty feeble for January.

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5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

It sounds like DT (WxRisk) is about to throw in the towel on winter is his new "This Week in Weather" video

 

 

It has been 4 years since nyc saw  snowfall over 10 inches from a storm. 

I haven't pulled an  all nighter since that storm.

This winter is another failure and might me the worst ever.

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21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It has been 4 years since nyc saw  snowfall over 6 inches from a storm. 

I haven't pulled an  all nighter since that storm.

This winter is another failure and might me the worst ever.

You know winter's a failure when you hope for a KU event just to achieve average annual snowfall.

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