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Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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The next 8 days are averaging 29.5degs., or about 2.5degs. BN.

Month to date is   +10.2[42.7].     Should be about +6.1[38.1] by the 24th.

Just a T to 2" of Snow for Saturday does it.

47* here at 6am.    46* at 7am.     48* at 8am.     50* and windy, drizzle at 9am.     48* windy, at Noon.     45* windy, by 2pm.

06Z GFS IS SUPER COLD!!!!!     It wants to try to equal feat of Jan. 19-Feb. 05 1961, with NO 32 HIGHS starting Jan 20.    Leaving out today and Feb. 01, it averages 20.1 for 15 days!       A Reverse Full Nelson for sure.

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The warmth for the 1st half of February was more impressive to the north of NYC. It was the 2nd warmest on record at Albany and 6th warmest in NYC. That’s +14.6 in Albany and +10.2 in NYC.

Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2007-01-15 37.6 0
2 2020-01-15 37.2 0
3 1932-01-15 36.8 0
4 1937-01-15 35.1 0
5 1889-01-15 35.0 0
6 1930-01-15 34.8 0
7 1874-01-15 34.0 0
8 1907-01-15 33.6 0
9 1928-01-15 33.3 0
10 1936-01-15 33.2 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2007-01-15 46.4 0
2 1932-01-15 44.0 0
3 1950-01-15 43.6 0
4 1907-01-15 43.5 0
5 1998-01-15 43.3 0
6 2020-01-15 42.7 0
7 2005-01-15 42.2 0
8 1937-01-15 42.1 0
9 1930-01-15 41.7 0
10 1890-01-15 41.4 0
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55 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

6z GFS says break out the yardsticks as it shows a day 10 snow bomb. In this winter to forget why do I keep torturing myself?:ee:

 

870344C0-C121-4E71-A845-885188A7AE1F.png

F01A71F3-4FE9-4A73-A81E-6AC343AB49DE.png

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10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

We can laugh at this for sure but if the MJO goes into more favorable stages along with Atlantic and Pacific tweaks... Who knows?? 

Exactly

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5 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Lol at the gradient: 24” blob in Manhattan next to 0” in Brooklyn

That's just the poor product TT HAS. 

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better.

 

Interesting post ,but what are your thoughts here in regards to using Februaries  with AAM > 2.0 per as BAMWX just did as means to forecast warmth in the East for this coming Feb. Would you say unreliable because they are focusing on just one thing? 

 

 

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meanwhile JB says ice age:

Been banging the drum since the holidays about the big reversal coming , the transition Jan 16-20 then rest of winter cold and stormy . Here are the last 30 days, and the JMA starting the 19th for the next 28 days, cfsv2 for the next 30. Analogs said it, models agreeing

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

meanwhile JB says ice age:

Been banging the drum since the holidays about the big reversal coming , the transition Jan 16-20 then rest of winter cold and stormy . Here are the last 30 days, and the JMA starting the 19th for the next 28 days, cfsv2 for the next 30. Analogs said it, models agreeing

They both suck for different reasons. 

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5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

He is right - need the -AO and also a -NAO to have a better chance of more cold and snow - have to get lucky with timing of any cold injections and storms following as soon as possible.

Agree partly-but a good -EPO would make the AO and NAO less important

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

meanwhile JB says ice age:

Been banging the drum since the holidays about the big reversal coming , the transition Jan 16-20 then rest of winter cold and stormy . Here are the last 30 days, and the JMA starting the 19th for the next 28 days, cfsv2 for the next 30. Analogs said it, models agreeing

when I was growing up in the 90s I looked up to JB

I loved reading him on accuweather

turns out I only loved him because the guy ALWAYS predicts cold and stormy east coast, like he is doing now lol

seems around these parts you get jumped on for mentioning him. I don't care about his political views but it seems people wont read him because of that, sad political climate these days, disagree with someone on something then disregard everything they say seems to be the way of it

hes the one that taught me about using analogs way back when

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17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Judah Cohen says it's about over:

To further elaborate completion of this troposphere-stratosphere coupling favors multiple weeks of positive #Arctic Oscillaton and overall mild weather and relatively light #snowfall. At this point hard for #winter to recover.

He has been saying this all winter. He is a fraud.

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

He has been saying this all winter. He is a fraud.

and you were saying to ignore the +AO charts for early January - looks like there is a chance of the AO going negative soon - or should we ignore that ?

ao.sprd2.gif

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3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

So much has happened in the guidance in regards to the 20th, the MJO progression and the overall idea over the last week since I told you what was going to happen this that is stunningly stupid , even for you.

The MJO is now unlikely to enter phase 8-1 like you said. The pattern is still changing but in a different way than forecast. 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

again, the pattern has not happened yet.   You arrogantly yell at people here, but let the pattern verify before you do that. And I'l l remind you that you did this last year only for nothing to verify.

 

Yes I am arrogantly telling posters who said the SE ridge would be there on the 20th that they were wrong.

I am telling posters who said the MJO would fade after p6 that they are wrong.

I am telling people that denied the pattern would change on Jan 20th posted in here 15 day away , they were wrong.

 

Do you not see where the guidance has come too, do you think continuing to play the def dumb and blind card in here is a good look.

Because making believe the guidance isn`t a complete flip after Jan 20th is just silly. 

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On 1/10/2020 at 10:29 AM, PB-99 said:

This is where I corrected the EURO to 6 days ago, in it`s last fake loop back. 

 

20200104_1045261.jpg

Where do I begin

CFSO_phase_full.gif

 

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1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

 

Yes I am arrogantly telling posters who said the SE ridge would be there on the 20th that they were wrong.

I am telling posters who said the MJO would fade after p6 that they are wrong.

I am telling people that denied the pattern would change on Jan 20th posted in here 15 day away , they were wrong.

 

Do you not see where the guidance has come too, do you think continuing to play the def dumb and blind card in here is a good look.

Because making believe the guidance isn`t a complete flip after Jan 20th is just silly. 

sometimes persistence forecasting is the way to go-maybe we do change, but many times, breaking a bad pattern is tough to do.

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