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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the MJO comes out this amplified into 4-5, then maybe we could see a start warming event in February. But there is no  guarantee that such a start warming event will follow. 

01F84887-109B-4361-95BD-CC1EBEF6FADE.gif.ef54d36c8c1ecc887acc3a985cbbc285.gif
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0044.1

The teleconnection time scale is another factor considered here. Garfinkel et al. (2012a, 2014) find that MJO phase 7 occurs 1–12 days before SSW events, and MJO phase 4 occurs 13–24 days before SSW events. While this seems to suggest a 3-week teleconnection time scale, they also find correlation between the MJO and the polar cap at lags exceeding 40 days. Our idealized model, with its perfectly periodic prescribed MJO forcing, allows us to identify the propagating signal in a Hovmöller plot of pseudomomentum flux with some confidence. While this analysis cannot determine the teleconnection time scale with certainty, it suggests a horizontal propagation time scale between 10 and 20 days, and we point out uncertainties in this estimate. This horizontal propagation is followed by additional time for vertical propagation within the stratosphere.


 

 

we have already started warming

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Some people are canceling winter which is foolish this early. 

No one is canceling winter-the pattern is bad for several weeks.   Beyond that who knows.  But wasting January really sucks.   

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3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

in addition as mentioned by JB last Saturday Summary - the Blizzards in late January 1978 - Early February occurred when the MJO was in phase 4 -5 ……...

During theJanuary storm, the MJO was moving from Phase 3 into Phase 4 at a super high amplitude. During the February blizzard, it was in Phase 7 and headed for Phase 8 with an exceptional AO block.

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45 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Some people are canceling winter which is foolish this early. 

Probably because a cold snowy Dec ( which this is not ) is usually a good indicator or more goods ahead, but not always, and it would be foolhardy to bet against some kind of snow before winter ends. But, we do get those winters with paltry amounts, and they usually look wet and mild. 2002 was dry IIRC.

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1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

But what is your average? And what did you get in 2017-18? 16-17? I dont think youre below average most of the past few years. In fact id be willing to bet youve been above average at least 6 or 7 of the previous 10 winters.

Over the past five winters, I've been above average twice and below average three times. One of those below average winters was less than half the average. Of the two above average, one was saved by a historic March which gave me about 3/4 of my average by itself.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Some people are canceling winter which is foolish this early. 

Yeah February and March could be big months.  January I would say is tossed at this stage but subject to change.  The MJO looks to go into 4-5 and maybe 6 starting 1/7.  That means probably no major effect from it til 1/12-1/14.  Thereafter it’s at least 15 days til it either goes into the COD or into 7 so I would toss the remaining 2 weeks of the month and then see what happens thereafter.  It remains possible that from 1/6 til the 12th or 14th some type of snow event could occur 

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57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

During theJanuary storm, the MJO was moving from Phase 3 into Phase 4 at a super high amplitude. During the February blizzard, it was in Phase 7 and headed for Phase 8 with an exceptional AO block.

why would the amplitude help in 3/4 with the blizzard?

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

why would the amplitude help in 3/4 with the blizzard?

 

January 1978 featured a much more atmospherically engaged Nino signal than is extant presently. Pre-existing blocking over the high latitudes, in concert with a fairly coherent GWO circuit 7/8 enabled sufficient momentum induction to produce a conducive downstream synoptic. 

So, the MJO-4 and concomitant NPAC decay didn't totally extirpate the set-up.

Finally, the southern stream/STJ was quite/more active than normal, again, reflective of much improved Nino engagement.

 

Blocking already in place across the AO domain:

image.png.47bdef1647eade31196f6ad079d74932.png

 

 

STJ active:

 

image.png.ecf8dd59a2fc4be3adb7c46d2d258fa0.png

 

 

 

Auspicious GWO circuit:

 

image.png.2c8c757679050e4cc38a814b35d5bc3b.png

 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

January 1978 featured a much more atmospherically engaged Nino signal than is extant presently. Pre-existing blocking over the high latitudes, in concert with a fairly coherent GWO circuit 7/8 enabled sufficient momentum induction to produce a conducive downstream synoptic. 

So, the MJO-4 and concomitant NPAC decay didn't totally extirpate the set-up.

Finally, the southern stream/STJ was quite/more active than normal, again, reflective of much improved Nino engagement.

 

Blocking already in place across the AO domain:

image.png.47bdef1647eade31196f6ad079d74932.png

 

 

STJ active:

 

image.png.ecf8dd59a2fc4be3adb7c46d2d258fa0.png

 

 

 

Auspicious GWO circuit:

 

image.png.2c8c757679050e4cc38a814b35d5bc3b.png

 

 

 

 

different weather  climate more sea ice back then...

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

why would the amplitude help in 3/4 with the blizzard?

That was merely an observation. The main point is that one should not use 1978 as an analogy for the forecast Phases 4-5 MJO in the extended range.

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We will have to see if after the MJO comes back out in 4 if it rotates back around to 8 by mid month like the EPS 200 VPA`s suggest then the last 10 days " may " offer another window.

 

So after a slight 5 day window open between day 5 -10 that window closes again for about 10 to 15 days. 

 

 

ENCuPjoW4AAVVZ0  MJO WAVE.jpg

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3 hours ago, PB-99 said:

We will have to see if after the MJO comes back out in 4 if it rotates back around to 8 by mid month like the EPS 200 VPA`s suggest then the last 10 days " may " offer another window.

 

So after a slight 5 day window open between day 5 -10 that window closes again for about 10 to 15 days. 

 

 

ENCuPjoW4AAVVZ0  MJO WAVE.jpg

MJO is just 1 part of the equation

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12 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

MJO is just 1 part of the equation

 

When you rotate this strongly into 4 /5 / 6 you are going to blowtorch the east.

 

You don`t have any other overwhelming signal to counter this.

 

Unfortunately this is where we are going. 

 

ENG1vTTWsAI9S5G.jpg

 

 

ENG1vWEXYAI1Ys_.png

 

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Some quick morning thoughts on January:

1. The AO is now rising sharply. It has increased by more than 5 sigma over the past 4 days. It is forecast to remain strongly positive into mid-month.

2. The EPO is currently positive and rising. It could go neutral during the second week of the month. EPO+/AO+ patterns are typically the warmest in January. Such warmth is often amplified when the SOI is negative.

3. There is strong consensus on the guidance that the MJO will move into the Maritime Continent phases at high amplitude.

All said, the first week of January could have a mean temperature at or above 40 degrees in NYC and the first half of the month, could be much warmer than normal. Any snowfall during the brief window as a trough swings across the region from late in the first week of January to the middle of the second week will likely be light. No significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely for the Middle Atlantic region. Central and upstate New York and New England would have a better chance at significant snowfall. Ridging with above to occasionally much above normal temperatures should redevelop around January 10 +/- a few days and could predominate for at least a week and possibly longer.

My final guess is that NYC will probably have a January temperature anomaly of 2.4 degrees above normal.

 

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36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some quick morning thoughts on January:

1. The AO is now rising sharply. It has increased by more than 5 sigma over the past 4 days. It is forecast to remain strongly positive into mid-month.

2. The EPO is currently positive and rising. It could go neutral during the second week of the month. EPO+/AO+ patterns are typically the warmest in January. Such warmth is often amplified when the SOI is negative.

3. There is strong consensus on the guidance that the MJO will move into the Maritime Continent phases at high amplitude.

All said, the first week of January could have a mean temperature at or above 40 degrees in NYC and the first half of the month, could be much warmer than normal. Any snowfall during the brief window as a trough swings across the region from late in the first week of January to the middle of the second week will likely be light. No significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely for the Middle Atlantic region. Central and upstate New York and New England would have a better chance at significant snowfall. Ridging with above to occasionally much above normal temperatures should redevelop around January 10 +/- a few days and could predominate for at least a week and possibly longer.

My final guess is that NYC will probably have a January temperature anomaly of 2.4 degrees above normal.

 

Do you have a list of January snowfall totals when the avg temp was around 2.4 above normal ?

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1 hour ago, PB-99 said:

 

When you rotate this strongly into 4 /5 / 6 you are going to blowtorch the east.

 

You don`t have any other overwhelming signal to counter this.

 

Unfortunately this is where we are going. 

 

ENG1vTTWsAI9S5G.jpg

 

 

ENG1vWEXYAI1Ys_.png

 

And yet this very morning I had friends complaining about the freakin cold, as it was 38 degrees....this is an alternative universe compared to the rest of the world, which hates cold and hates snow even more. I don't know if it was 38 but I can say that I have been tossing the ball to the dog outside for a few days without a jacket on....

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Looks like warmest January is 1932 43.2F

Looking at first 15 days...we have to be making a run at it, no?

I certainly cant remember such a forecast of sustained warmth even in recent warm winters

and these winter time ridges in recent years tend to over perform on warmth.   I'm thinking we see some big time positive departures by 1/15-1/20

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15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

and these winter time ridges in recent years tend to over perform on warmth.   I'm thinking we see some big time positive departures by 1/15-1/20

Nice, just in time for our ski trip

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I'm throwing the indices on the back burner this winter. Uncharted territory with regards to the Sun, and sst's are part and parcel to the problem. MJO is nullified to a certain extent, as any move into warmer phases ( for the east) is in a null phase- not an amplified one- despite what the modeling is currently saying. Time will tell, but I feel this winter will turn the modeling on its heels. Its already started

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18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

and these winter time ridges in recent years tend to over perform on warmth.   I'm thinking we see some big time positive departures by 1/15-1/20

Honestly +4 wouldn’t shock me, pattern is as bad as it gets around here

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Honestly +4 wouldn’t shock me, pattern is as bad as it gets around here

remember January 2006?   That was a crazy warm snowless month.     I think it could be like that barring some dramatic turnaround late

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16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

remember January 2006?   That was a crazy warm snowless month.     I think it could be like that barring some dramatic turnaround late

Very well...I remember being at the Philly zoo and people were wearing shorts....

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32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Honestly +4 wouldn’t shock me, pattern is as bad as it gets around here

I'd go even higher.

In fact it wouldn't surprise me if March ended up colder than January. 

Every teleconnection screams record warmth especially after Jan 10. 

One thing to note is that our source region, Canada, will be getting very cold as we torch. In fact the cold is on our side of the globe so if the tables turn, which I think will happen sometime in Feb, we could see some bitter cold. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd go even higher.

In fact it wouldn't surprise me if March ended up colder than January. 

Every teleconnection screams record warmth especially after Jan 10. 

even if it was colder it won't feel as cold due to the higher sun angle in march..

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd go even higher.

In fact it wouldn't surprise me if March ended up colder than January. 

Every teleconnection screams record warmth especially after Jan 10. 

One thing to note is that our source region, Canada, will be getting very cold as we torch. In fact the cold is on our side of the globe so if the tables turn, which I think will happen sometime in Feb, we could see some bitter cold. 

Frequent cutters could allow for brief cool downs, only reason which could prevent record warmth

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