SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Frequent cutters could allow for brief cool downs, only reason which could prevent record warmth Perhaps but it's a lot easier to get warmer departures in the coldest month annually. Also don't fear a record warm Jan either as December 2015 has taught us. I'm pretty confident we score 2nd half with at least one good storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Snow chance around the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 I'm not really sure what happened with my point-and-click, was expecting a gusty day but there's no wind outside. I guess once this front moves through we'll see that transition. Any chance of PA snow squalls making it through to NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Looks like a lot of meteorologists are on board for a big patern change at the end of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks like a lot of meteorologists are on board for a big patern change at the end of this month. just 30 short days away.... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Perhaps but it's a lot easier to get warmer departures in the coldest month annually. Also don't fear a record warm Jan either as December 2015 has taught us. I'm pretty confident we score 2nd half with at least one good storm. I'd tend to agree. But a big winter with snowcover is starting to look like it's going down the tubes quick.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: I'd tend to agree. But a big winter with snowcover is starting to look like it's going down the tubes quick.... Lol Tomorrow is spring? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd go even higher. In fact it wouldn't surprise me if March ended up colder than January. Every teleconnection screams record warmth especially after Jan 10. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Do you have a list of January snowfall totals when the avg temp was around 2.4 above normal ? Using the base normal figure skews things, as 2.4 degrees above normal was once around freezing, meaning a greater tendency of snowfall. Using temperature averages is more meaningful. January Mean: 34.0-34.9: Mean: 7.5"; Most: 27.9", 2016 January Mean: 35.0-35.9: Mean: 4.5"; Most: 13.3", 1964 January Mean: 36.0-39.9: Mean: 2.8"; Most: 7.9", 2017 January Mean: 40.0 or above: Mean: 1.5"; Most: 6.5", 1937 That data is from Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 30 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Lol Tomorrow is spring? nope but snowcover gets harder and harder to maintain as we head through Feb and beyond. That's why winter '10-11 was special-the goods came during prime low sun angle and coldest temps. Minimal melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: nope but snowcover gets harder and harder to maintain as we head through Feb and beyond. That's why winter '10-11 was special-the goods came during prime low sun angle and coldest temps. Minimal melting Again, going with the theme that most people hate snow, my late father once complained to me after a Jan storm sometime in the 70's that, oh no, it will be on the ground till spring now....it used to be cold enough for a snow pack to last awhile at that time of year. Now we get 27 inchers that melt in a few days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: nope but snowcover gets harder and harder to maintain as we head through Feb and beyond. That's why winter '10-11 was special-the goods came during prime low sun angle and coldest temps. Minimal melting Worry about that in March. It's the same discussion every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 The only thing I know is that I don't know. We can take our best shots at forecasting patterns and possibilities, which makes this hobby interesting and fun, but I have low confidence on any long range forecast coming to fruition as stated. We have seen time and time again models switching, adjusting, etc. Mother nature usually throws us surprises, so even if we have good model consensus today about larger pattern evolution, I still try to avoid definitive conclusions about what will eventually transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Looks like a lot of meteorologists are on board for a big patern change at the end of this month. I know it's just a random run of the GFS, but towards the end of the run it shows a 968 cutter. That might just do the trick to snap us back into a more wintry regime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 28 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I know it's just a random run of the GFS, but towards the end of the run it shows a 968 cutter. That might just do the trick to snap us back into a more wintry regime. Sometimes that's what we need. Euro is interesting for this weekend. Low transferred further south and east. Probably a long shot but still worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 31 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I know it's just a random run of the GFS, but towards the end of the run it shows a 968 cutter. That might just do the trick to snap us back into a more wintry regime. Agreed my thinking looking at all the model runs going through mid January and the indicies - its going to be a January filled with transient shots of cold enough air for snow - BUT the trough position is key because it does look like a pattern with storms cutting to our west with milder air before dragging in the next cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Buds on the Forsythia bush 10 miles north of the city Go check yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Robins making a come-back this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Worry about that in March. It's the same discussion every year. Not to worry, I’m sure we’ll go into deep winter once the calendar flips to March. Same repeating pattern progression over and over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 46 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Buds on the Forsythia bush 10 miles north of the city Go check yours 33 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Robins making a come-back this am. gaining sun light--sunset is now 10 minutes later here than the earliest one in mid Dec. Sun angle will soon become an issue (LOL) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Jb thinks snow to the coast this weekend and loves next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Not to worry, I’m sure we’ll go into deep winter once the calendar flips to March. Same repeating pattern progression over and over again Happens every year March is the new January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Jb thinks snow to the coast this weekend and loves next week Seriously, unfollow JB. Your life will not have so many letdowns. That guy is like heroin for snow junkies. Just stop with him. 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Happens every year March is the new January March will never be the new January. Even with tons of snow it melts way too fast. Snow cover to me is much more important. I don't get why people get so excited for storms if they just melt within a few days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Happens every year March is the new January wrong on so many levels that is like saying september is the new july... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, nycwinter said: wrong on so many levels that is like saying september is the new july... What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: What? comparing march to january because of a few years we had decent snow in march.. their is no comparison in terms of cold or blizzard potential that can happen in january but not march... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Happens every year March is the new January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: Instead of posting stupid emotions, explain when we had a good January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 CPC just came out Better than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Instead of posting stupid emotions, explain when we had a good January. 2018 2016 2015 2014 2011 - not bad for 1 decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now