Jacattack

Models backing off on the weekend system for the Tri- State.. now you see it ..now you don't? Or just another poor model run(s). One thing is for sure. The models are OUT OF TUNE..Like an old guitar that's been in the attic for 5 years. Not sure what the problem is..but if I had to guess, I would look towards the Sun..and its affect on ALL the indices- including convection and circulation..or the MJO boogieman.. The once driving forces of the planet..has become a disruptive convoluted adjunct to forecasting. Don't take anything for granted.. GFS, EURO and alike until the system in the wheelhouse. That would late tom night/ early sat for this 'whateverwegot' coming toward the VA CAPES

I'm throwing the indices on the back burner this winter. Uncharted territory with regards to the Sun, and sst's are part and parcel to the problem. MJO is nullified to a certain extent, as any move into warmer phases ( for the east) is in a null phase- not an amplified one- despite what the modeling is currently saying. Time will tell, but I feel this winter will turn the modeling on its heels. Its already started

Hello everyone.. No need to say what Weather Venue I subscribe to, because it's not really important. I'm an analog guy, and this winter looks like some classics of yesteryear. A late starter for the east, with 'big digs' inbetween some rather mundane weather.. Indices are skewed, as we enter an unknown phase of record low solar. Particularly with regards to the MJO-and where it may ..or may not.. be going as we enter into true winter.. One thing to look for is this. Once past Jan 5th or 6th some big changes will be taking shape in the upper levels and the persistent split flow will be coming to an end.. With that, the cutters will be tracking to the east and I'm looking for the first problem for the megalopolis shortly thereafter.. stay tuned