NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It sounds like March outside this morning. Just woke up to all the birds singing outside my house. It’s like everything is 7 weeks too early right now, on Friday afternoon I saw a groundhog out running around He only got a coating yesterday so it must have melted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 9 hours ago, Snow88 said: LOL Next weekend ? With temps in the 40s? There's no cold air in sight. Doesn't matter if the track is good if we have a rotting Pacific airmass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: With temps in the 40s? There's no cold air in sight. Doesn't matter if the track is good if we have a rotting Pacific airmass in place. That is how it looks today. We will see how things evolve. I rule out nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 My ideal rest of the winter would be a very snowy Feb including a huge KU, a triple phaser with feet of snow followed by an early Spring, gradual warning to limit high flooding from snowpack melt and pleasant warmth through April and May. Many of you may agree. But alas, mother nature doesn't usually listen to anyone's wishes. :). It will probably turn out to to exact opposite given history and trends. I can see a better February for snow lovers realistically however. It won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: With temps in the 40s? There's no cold air in sight. Doesn't matter if the track is good if we have a rotting Pacific airmass in place. It CAN work for some snow, but it would be an anamoly and have to bomb out just south east of us. Doubtful of course but something to pass the time till we get a more favorable pattern later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: It sounds like March outside this morning. Just woke up to all the birds singing outside my house. It’s like everything is 7 weeks too early right now, on Friday afternoon I saw a groundhog out running around Had a fox running around in the backyard yesterday. Sucker got over a six foot fence somehow. Thought is was a cat at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Winter might be over for anything sustained Mjo on every model wants to go into the cod and possibly into 4 or 5. Another busted winter by many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 24 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: My ideal rest of the winter would be a very snowy Feb including a huge KU, a triple phaser with feet of snow followed by an early Spring, gradual warning to limit high flooding from snowpack melt and pleasant warmth through April and May. Many of you may agree. But alas, mother nature doesn't usually listen to anyone's wishes. :). It will probably turn out to to exact opposite given history and trends. I can see a better February for snow lovers realistically however. It won't take much. Give me one 12" storm and I'll be sated. @CPcantmeasuresnow is already covered on that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Winter might be over for anything sustained Mjo on every model wants to go into the cod and possibly into 4 or 5. Another busted winter by many people. Where is the promised "flip" on January 20th and a month of winter? Every winter cannot be a blockbuster---we don't live in an area that supports that(Long Island) The last 20 years have been incredible from a snow lovers' point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: Where is the promised "flip" on January 20th and a month of winter? Every winter cannot be a blockbuster---we don't live in an area that supports that(Long Island) The last 20 years have been incredible from a snow lovers' point of view. Models including the eps did look great for a pattern change but of course the models flipped. They have been atrocious this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Models including the eps did look great for a pattern change but of course the models flipped. They have been atrocious this winter. I completely understand that the models have been atrocious---no problem with that occurring. My question is why are people so sure that they are right and belittle people who question their forecasts? Haven't we seen countless forecasts bust? With the weather nothing is set in stone We all have our biases and desirous outcomes, but we cannot alter the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 LR forecasting is incredibly challenging, hence the fun. This is why we are here. I don't know the reasons for such high model inaccuracy in the long range, but I wonder if there is a correlation between model accuracy and state of the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I still find myself expecting “the big one” to be right around the corner, but is it (almost) safe to say that the excessive snowfall pattern of the 2010’s has ran its course? Last winter was the first with BN snowfall in what felt like ages, and this winter isn’t shaping up to be any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 26 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Where is the promised "flip" on January 20th and a month of winter? Every winter cannot be a blockbuster---we don't live in an area that supports that(Long Island) The last 20 years have been incredible from a snow lovers' point of view. I think we can get a couple significant storms in there. At least the GFS shows some coastal potential after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Synoptically we have some decent pieces in place for next weekend. This is the 'window' that I think makes the most sense for a chance at a more significant system. Behind that, I'm not loving the way the pattern sets up. But these transition periods historically are where I tend to find we get tagged. Something to track this week before it gets boring again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 47 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Winter might be over for anything sustained Mjo on every model wants to go into the cod and possibly into 4 or 5. Another busted winter by many people. yesterday you were confident next weekend might be s snow opportunity what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Winter might be over for anything sustained Mjo on every model wants to go into the cod and possibly into 4 or 5. Another busted winter by many people. Just a few days ago it was into 8... don’t trust those things you’re going to go insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Synoptically we have some decent pieces in place for next weekend. This is the 'window' that I think makes the most sense for a chance at a more significant system. Behind that, I'm not loving the way the pattern sets up. But these transition periods historically are where I tend to find we get tagged. Something to track this week before it gets boring again. What I do not get is the sense that once the bad pattern sets in it's all over as in it will not correct to a better pattern in the future. Unless there is something about the upcoming pattern that historically sticks for months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 32 minutes ago, Cfa said: I still find myself expecting “the big one” to be right around the corner, but is it (almost) safe to say that the excessive snowfall pattern of the 2010’s has ran its course? Last winter was the first with BN snowfall in what felt like ages, and this winter isn’t shaping up to be any better. COuld be. Then one year it will suddenly turn around. that's how it is here. For more consistent snow you have to move where it does that every year. This isn't the area for that. So we enjoy when we get some. Now, many people don't enjoy it and would be content if it stayed mild or snowless or both forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What I do not get is the sense that once the bad pattern sets in it's all over as in it will not correct to a better pattern in the future. Unless there is something about the upcoming pattern that historically sticks for months? excellent post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Light snow shower 41F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 While all the models struggled with the EPO forecast, at least the Euro and EPS were closer to reality. Always be weary of long range model forecasts that go against the seasonal background state. That’s why there’s no harm in waiting for an actual pattern change to show up in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: While all the models struggled with the EPO forecast, at least the Euro and EPS were closer to reality. Always be weary of long range model forecasts that go against the seasonal background state. That’s why there’s no harm in waiting for an actual pattern change to show up in the short term. Bad fail for the GFS and CMC. The pattern looks exceedingly ugly going into early February, after next weekend looks to start the real ugliness, (post 1/26) not that this week looks good either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: While all the models struggled with the EPO forecast, at least the Euro and EPS were closer to reality. Always be weary of long range model forecasts that go against the seasonal background state. That’s why there’s no harm in waiting for an actual pattern change to show up in the short term. We have scored 3 accumulating snowfalls to date, so while this winter has shown it's hand, we should expect at least 1 more window. While the pack is definitely bad, it's nowhere near as bad as 11/12 was. You did a great job recognizing the overall background state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What I do not get is the sense that once the bad pattern sets in it's all over as in it will not correct to a better pattern in the future. Unless there is something about the upcoming pattern that historically sticks for months? Great point. I think the observation thus far is that models tend to go warm on us the closer we get to a particular time period when initially progged as cold and promising. Hence the pessimism and thinking that more of the same will continue. The warmth feels like the default pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Ukmet looks pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Ukmet looks pretty nice Gefs looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We have scored 3 accumulating snowfalls to date, so while this winter has shown it's hand, we should expect at least 1 more window. While the pack is definitely bad, it's nowhere near as bad as 11/12 was. You did a great job recognizing the overall background state. The accumulations have been laughable down my way. Not sure we have cleared 2 inches yet in any event, and a couple didn't clear an inch....at this point a 4 inch storm would be a major deal in these parts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s still early It really isn't early at this point. But there is some decent time left, however not unless there is a pattern change. In this pattern those of us near the coast are just not gonna see much. My rule of thumb over the years is to ignore any "storm" that is forecast at 1-3, because it is so negligible. My yard is already back to brown, or rather a dull green... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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