January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[PB-99]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeesh was that an ugly Euro run. Better hope that rolls back. The 850s look like April for the entire country.

 

lol

The 850s ? 

[Allsnow]

Ripping pretty good here in this snow shower. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

lol

The 850s ? 

Everyone will praise you when the pattern changes.  

[PB-99]

Jan 20 - 21 -22 are all  BN and spend most of the 3 day period in the 20`s to low 30`s.

So yes that`s a change.

The warmest the actual 850`s get in the Northeast on the EPS  post Jan 20 at hour 204 in plus 3. ( That`s not April ) . 

The anomalies show up like it`s a torch, because like I said you can`t use anomalies in late Jan, because they are cold so any AN " looks warm "  but the actual surface is plus 5 for 3 days and that`s not cold. 

Unfortunately  it is day 9 - 11 as the ridge hangs down off H/B. ( so that may blow the day 10 system ) . 

By day 12 the ridge retracts over H/B and the S branch is sending impulses out.

That`s what the EPS shows today  - I don`t think that sucks, but if you do , have at it. 

[forkyfork]

41 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

850 anomalies hooked up out of HB for 3 days. While your surface temps on the 20/21/22 are in the 20`s.

We do flip on the 20th.

I guess that transient H/B ridge will give you a week of plus 5 , but using 850 anomalies in late Jan man ? Esch

The response to the AAM spike looks real. 

But that`s plus 5 for 3 days. 

Then once that rolls back , SW after SW should develop. That ridging is your friend, it what will develop into the block Hudson Bay.

When was the last time we saw a 5 day mean like that ? 

looks just like 1978 minus the very negative AO. i don't think you actually know what you're looking at on any of these maps

[PB-99]

Just now, forkyfork said:

looks just like 1978 minus the very negative AO. i don't think you actually know what you're looking at on any of these maps

 

What about the raging positive EPO and Neg PNA , if you know what you`re looking at.

 

It`s the Ridge sticking out over HB is the anomaly that you`re all concerned about 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looks just like 1978 minus the very negative AO. i don't think you actually know what you're looking at on any of these maps

Don't worry the pattern change is coming. Have faith in PB.

[PB-99]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Don't worry the pattern change is coming. Have faith in PB.

Where are the April 850`s ? 

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

The 850s ? 

 

5 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Jan 20 - 21 -22 are all  BN and spend most of the 3 day period in the 20`s to low 30`s.

So yes that`s a change.

The warmest the actual 850`s get in the Northeast on the EPS  post Jan 20 at hour 204 in plus 3. ( That`s not April ) . 

The anomalies show up like it`s a torch, because like I said you can`t use anomalies in late Jan, because they are cold so any AN " looks warm "  but the actual surface is plus 5 for 3 days and that`s not cold. 

Unfortunately  it is day 9 - 11 as the ridge hangs down off H/B. ( so that may blow the day 10 system ) . 

By day 12 the ridge retracts over H/B and the S branch is sending impulses out.

That`s what the EPS shows today  - I don`t think that sucks, but if you do , have at it. 

it sucks for snow around here and that's what most will care about.  A day 10 rainstorm amidst a few colder days (and let's be honest this cold is nothing to write home about) is nothing to get excited about.  Sorry.  Last January's cold, although fleeting (nothing to block it in) was much more impressive.

[Yaz]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ripping pretty good here in this snow shower. 

where is here?

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

What about the raging positive EPO and Neg PNA , if you know what you`re looking at.

 

It`s the Ridge sticking out over HB is the anomaly that you`re all concerned about 

do you even know what a negative AO means? sigh

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

Where are the April 850`s ? 

I meant 500mb, geez just take the compliment. Relax it's just the weather.

[PB-99]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

do you even know what a negative AO means? sigh

 

So you want to focus on pressure differences between the Arctic and the mid latitudes but ignore the center of the ridge ?

 

You think the AO is the only reason you got a blizzard on the EC ? 

[PB-99]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I meant 500mb, geez just take the compliment. Relax it's just the weather.

 

Sorry dude, I thought you meant hamburgers.

 

Clearly my bad 

[Yanksfan]

42 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

850 anomalies hooked up out of HB for 3 days. While your surface temps on the 20/21/22 are in the 20`s.

We do flip on the 20th.

 

 

 

I guess that transient H/B ridge will give you a week of plus 5 , but using 850 anomalies in late Jan man ? Esch

 

The response to the AAM spike looks real. 

 

 

But that`s plus 5 for 3 days. 

 

 

Then once that rolls back , SW after SW should develop. That ridging is your friend, it what will develop into the block Hudson Bay.

 

When was the last time we saw a 5 day mean like that ? 

 

 

 

 

As our winter goes up in flames, PB tries to calm everyone down.

[PB-99]

Here is what the EPS is showing at the surface.

 

You flipped out of a huge SE ridge into a trough in the S/E

 

That`s a pattern change, it doesn`t mean one or both get don`t kicked OTS , but looking at that map  you may be wishing for a SE ridge.

 

 

[forkyfork]

i see an unfavorable pacific that will load the country with warm air which negates any good storm track

[PB-99]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i see an unfavorable pacific that will load the country with warm air which negates any good storm track

 

I see the actual  0 line down into N/C after that ridge pulls back.

 

It`s slightly BN and in late Jan it`s cold enough if you build a ridge over H/B.

 

That terrible PAC sends out POS tilted waves.

 

I am not going to change your mind , just showing what I see man. 

[donsutherland1]

By now, the above normal height anomalies shown on the closing days of the operational ECMWF have likely gained notice. Those height anomalies and the accompanying temperature rebound are well-supported.

The 12z GEFS is in good agreement with the 12z operational ECMWF at 240 hours. However, by the end of the GEFS run, the area of above normal height anomalies retrogrades toward western Canada and a trough takes shape in the East.

My thinking has been and, at least for now, remains as noted in my nearly daily discussions of the longer-term pattern evolution:

During the coming weekend, colder temperatures are likely. The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February.
Obviously, the situation bears watching. At least for me, I will need to see more evidence that the change is not a temporary period of moderation (highlighted above) during a transition toward a more sustained period of cold.

The evolution of the teleconnections and progression of the MJO will provide insight over the next week.

If people want something gloomy to consider, January 1-15, 1998 had a mean temperature of 43.3° (2020 was 42.7°) in New York City. February 1998 went on to have a mean temperature of 40.6°.

If people want something more appealing to consider, January 1-15, 1907 had a mean temperature of 43.5°. February 1907 had a mean temperature of 25.9° and monthly snowfall of 21.8".

[Allsnow]

25 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i see an unfavorable pacific that will load the country with warm air which negates any good storm track

Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change. 

we can live without a -NAO or even AO but a +EPO with those 2 will just be more of the same 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change. 

An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex

[Brian5671]

Good post by Ryan Maue about the pile of garbage models have been this winter:

Ryan Maue

 

@RyanMaue

 

I'm taking even more interest in Weekly weather forecasting since much of it lately is awful. Forecasters have strong biases that aren't rectified leading to repeated busts. So, is winter canceled or not?

[Allsnow]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex

Yep. Let’s hope its misplaced and we keep it by the Aleutians. It could be because the euro is looping the mjo back to 6. Which imo is bogus but I honestly don’t know anymore. It is what it is at this point 

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Good post by Ryan Maue about the pile of garbage models have been this winter:

Ryan Maue

 

@RyanMaue

 

I'm taking even more interest in Weekly weather forecasting since much of it lately is awful. Forecasters have strong biases that aren't rectified leading to repeated busts. So, is winter canceled or not?

The ensembles were never particularly great day 11+. It may just be that they are getting posted more with the rise of social media. So they are now coming under greater scrutiny.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. Let’s hope its misplaced and we keep it by the Aleutians. It could be because the euro is looping the mjo back to 6. Which imo is bogus but I honestly don’t know anymore. It is what it is at this point 

Anything beyond a certain time frame should always be taken with a grain of salt. 

And given how crappy the winter has gone it could only go up from here. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex

I don’t think it will stay there. To me it’s a transient look as the vortex traverses AK as an epo ridge establishes itself. That’s my guess given what the trop pac forcing looks like week 2.  It looks ominous simply because it’s at the end and so we can’t “see past it”.

 But just because we dont get a dumpster fire pattern doesn’t automatically mean we get a great one either.  But I don’t think it’s heading towards a permanent AK vortex pac puke pattern  

Before that I don’t share either extreme view. We likely get warm after the cold shot next week as the Hudson Ridge drifts too far south and temporarily links up with the mid latitude ridge.  But there are ways the look could reasonably shift and suddenly be better. 

If the ocean storm next week were to phase with the NS and pull up into a 50/50.  Or another yet unseen vort bombs into that space. The wave break from such pumps the ridge over the top and suddenly we get the colder look of some sporadic runs recently.  It’s unlikeky but it’s one rather insignificant change in the longwave pattern that has a drastic effect.  Another option is the day 10 storm helps to knock down the ridge to our northeast and sets the table for a threat day 12-15.  There are ways to avoid a disaster within the look we are getting.  But it will involve some luck.  It’s flawed but not no hope.  

 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Ok thanks! Enjoy your summer!!!!! 

He isn’t wrong though. If it did set up there more than a few days...barring a dramatic flip in the NAO, it would flood the CONUS with maritime pacific air and we would be in big trouble. But I don’t think that’s where the pattern is going right now. It looks transient imo. But if it’s not...

When people make conditional statements that’s not the same as them making a predictor. He didn’t say February is screwed. He simply stated a fact that “if” the vortex sets up over AK “then” February is screwed. It’s a conditional statement and it’s accurate. 

[CIK62]

You can WYA with the rest of this month.     The 06Z GFS  this morning averaged 20.1* for the rest of January, and the 18Z GFS averages 28.9*.      This is what a CAD program spits out when the physics package is turned off-------a cartoon for kiddies.        Snow totals went from 24" to just 1" more this month.     With the Jan. 31 threat you can take the aforementioned WYA and wipe your nose with it.

Official forecast is AN for remainder of month.          'SE Trough' still getting crushed.    

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif