Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: 9:41 60 here. 34 minutes ago, tmagan said: Actually, we have had colder days in August, twice in Central Park history has a daily August maximum failed to reach 60 degrees. Great to see both of you here! Hope all is well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The SE Ridge is dislodged it seems, way to the northeast. Nice look. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 57f after hitting 62f earlier ..the blacktop never even dried out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 As of 3 pm, daily record high temperatures include: Albany: 66° (old record: 57°, 1975) Allentown: 67° (old record: 66°, 1975) Atlantic City: 63° (old record: 62°, 2018) Boston: 69° (old record: 62°, 1975) Bridgeport: 57° (old record: 56°, 1975) Concord: 61° (old record: 58°, 1980) Dayton, OH: 67° (old record: 59°, 2013, 2017, and 2018) Erie, PA: 68° (old record: 66°, 1890) Hartford: 68° (old record: 60°, 1983) Lexington, KY: 75° (old record: 66°, 2018) Louisville: 70° (old record: 69°, 1890) New York City-LGA: 66° (old record: 62°, 1975) New York City-NYC: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975) Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1975) Poughkeepsie: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975) Portland: 60° (old record: 54°, 1983 and 2017) Providence: 65° (old record: 61°, 1975) White Plains: 65° (old record: 57°, 1975) In addition, daily rainfall records were set in parts of the Great Lakes region. Daily records through 3 pm include: Detroit: 1.86" (old daily record: 0.96", 1905; old January daily record: 1.76", January 12, 1908) Indianapolis: 1.32" (old daily record: 1.16", 2005) South Bend, IN: 2.31" (old daily record: 0.70", 1895) Toledo: 1.08" (old daily record: 0.76", 2013) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The SE Ridge is dislodged it seems, way to the northeast. Nice look. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Couple good years there vs the 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 53 minutes ago, tmagan said: Actually, we have had colder days in August, twice in Central Park history has a daily August maximum failed to reach 60 degrees. Yeah, the 70 at Newark was warmer than 8-29-17. 2017-08-29 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 Warm day out there, current temp is 67 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Currently 67 in New City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Under partly sunny skies that lasted until near mid-afternoon before overcast conditions developed, the temperature soared to a record 68° in New York City. Throughout the region, record high temperatures, many set in 1975 when a similar 500 mb pattern prevailed and a storm brought heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes region, were toppled. Four photos from the New York Botanical Garden early this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I think nyc has hit 70 during winter months 3 times in 4 years if got there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Looks close to the MJO phase 4 record for January. &_ACCESS_wind 2020 1 9 3.0007334 -0.43843362 4 3.0325940 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I think nyc has hit 70 during winter months 3 times in 4 years if got there today. 69 was today's high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This may be our first MJO phase 4 to reach 3 SD during January. &_ACCESS_wind 2020 1 9 3.0007334 -0.43843362 4 3.0325940 The MJO had an amplitude of 3.131 when in it was in Phase 4 on January 11, 1986. The highest January amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 5 is 2.712, which occurred on January 16, 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Did some garden work today. Still have fresh herbs going strong, thyme, rosemary, and some other stuff my wife planted, maybe sage. Have creeping charlie invading the pots. Still not the tomato seedlings I had growing in Dec 2015, but close enough. Blueberries started budding. All very disorienting. Looks like winter will return shortly according to people here. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Under partly sunny skies that lasted until near mid-afternoon before overcast conditions developed, the temperature soared to a record 68° in New York City. Throughout the region, record high temperatures, many set in 1975 when a similar 500 mb pattern prevailed and a storm brought heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes region, were toppled. Four photos from the New York Botanical Garden early this afternoon: Camilla in bloom. A southern plant tha hS done quite well in my postage stamp UHI blessed yard. Although Don, mid January is a bit early for them even by souther standards. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The MJO had an amplitude of 3.131 when in it was in Phase 4 on January 11, 1986. The highest January amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 5 is 2.712, which occurred on January 16, 1990. Looks like we have a chance to beat both those readings the next few days when the site updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like we have a chance to beat both those readings the next few days when the site updates. Yes. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, rclab said: Camilla in bloom. A southern plant tha hS done quite well in my postage stamp UHI blessed yard. Although Don, mid January is a bit early for them even by souther standards. . The bloom was surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. I agree. Forecasts beginning around the 20th look very close to the phase 7 composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Forecasts beginning around the 20th look very close to the phase 7 composite. GFS is not cooperating-WHERE IS THE PRECIP MAP FOR THE GEFS ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GFS is not cooperating-WHERE IS THE PRECIP MAP FOR THE GEFS ???? Why would you be looking at the gfs that far out? It will change at 00z. You use the ensembles at that range. If it makes you feel better the euro has a costal snowstorm in that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Why would you be looking at the gfs that far out? It will change at 00z. You use the ensembles at that range. If it makes you feel better the euro has a costal snowstorm in that timeframe Post the Euro map at hour 282 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GFS is not cooperating-WHERE IS THE PRECIP MAP FOR THE GEFS ???? Long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Post the Euro map at hour 282 It shows it at 240 You cant be serious taking a 282 map seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GFS is not cooperating-WHERE IS THE PRECIP MAP FOR THE GEFS ???? Ensembles begin to correctly pick up the general 500 mb pattern in the day 8-10 range. So I never really pay attention to what the operational GFS shows for an individual storm that far out in time. The NCEP should follow the ECMWF lead and stop running the OP beyond 240 hrs. Notice how the ECMWF only has the control and ensembles day 11-15. And those are often too low skill to be of use that far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It shows it at 240 You cant be serious taking a 282 map seriously. when did I say I was taking it seriously ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 26 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Not even the most pessimistic scientists are saying winter will go away. Not any time soon. But yeah, it's getting warmer. Climate change is certainly part of it but we’re not doomed to warm winters and little snow from now on because of it. The overall pattern has switched back to a Nina heavy pattern with the SE ridge and western trough favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: when did I say I was taking it seriously ? While you hope we get a favorable storm track for heavy snows at the coast, just pointing out a colder pattern coming around the 20th isn’t a guarantee. That’s why storm tracks are so important. Late last January with a similar 500 mb pattern we only got some light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It shows it at 240 You cant be serious taking a 282 map seriously. Models can't agree on something 84 hours out imagine 282... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: While you hope we get a favorable storm track for heavy snows at the coast, just pointing out a colder pattern coming around the 20th isn’t a guarantee. That’s why storm tracks are so important. Late last January with a similar 500 mb pattern we only got some light snows. Yep. We very well could swing and Miss. let’s hope for better luck this time. Last January we missed a storm to our south that crushed DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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