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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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43 minutes ago, griteater said:

We’re not even getting into punt formation this winter. We’re throwing pick 6’s and getting strip sacked. Maybe we can pull a late fluke after a lot of warmth like Feb ‘89

 

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2 hours ago, griteater said:

We’re not even getting into punt formation this winter. We’re throwing pick 6’s and getting strip sacked. Maybe we can pull a late fluke after a lot of warmth like Feb ‘89

And this is what happens when we recover the ball :lol:

 

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0z NAM is really going gang busters on the rain totals! All of that east of the mountains, in NC and SC, falls within a 24 hour period.

namconus_apcpn_seus_21.png

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2 hours ago, JoshM said:

0z NAM is really going gang busters on the rain totals! All of that east of the mountains, in NC and SC, falls within a 24 hour period.

namconus_apcpn_seus_21.png

Thursday night-Friday morning?  I have a decent drive that night from Charlotte heading east.  Wondering if I should leave earlier?

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3 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

Thursday night-Friday morning?  I have a decent drive that night from Charlotte east.  Wondering if I should leave earlier?

I would hold off... NAM has a tendency to go crazy on Precip.

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Dramatic increase in totals from the 12z run on Euro.ecmwf-deterministic-nc-total_precip_inch-1094800.thumb.png.dee38e51811103f40b42b935d3055e4c.pngecmwf-deterministic-nc-total_precip_inch-1091200.thumb.png.2af1d3196ac2f944ec4068474d6e99db.png

That amount in that short of time here in the N GA Mtns just screams landslide threat over the next couple days with how saturated the soils already are. 

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Dramatic increase in totals from the 12z run on Euro.ecmwf-deterministic-nc-total_precip_inch-1094800.thumb.png.dee38e51811103f40b42b935d3055e4c.pngecmwf-deterministic-nc-total_precip_inch-1091200.thumb.png.2af1d3196ac2f944ec4068474d6e99db.png
That amount in that short of time here in the N GA Mtns just screams landslide threat over the next couple days with how saturated the soils already are. 
GSP did mention in a previous discussion that landslide threat will be legitimate. I just hope it doesn't hurt anyone!

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

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The 6z models backed off a bit on rain totals. 2-4" has been a good forecast for a day or two now and still seems reasonable, although I wouldn't be surprised to see 6"+ somewhere

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Remember when tomorrow was our next snowstorm? I jokingly said it would be a severe weather event and here we go.

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42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I guess were just going to ignore the 2/21 snow/ice storm for N.C.? That’s the money ball!

Hahaha another 10 day plus event that will vanish

 

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:lol:

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Wednesday...

By Friday morning, the cold front should have moved east and
offshore of the Carolinas, so the bulk of the rain will have also
moved east, but there will still be leftover showers with the upper
trough moving through. Kept chance pops generally from Raleigh to
the north and east, with areas to the north of Raleigh still having
a slight chance of showers into the afternoon. Friday will be
another windy day because of a tight pressure gradient, with wind
gusts ranging from 30 mph across the Triad to 40 mph in the
southeast across Sampson County.

There will be a brief break in rain Friday night, but an upper level
shortwave should bring a chance of showers Saturday afternoon across
the Triad and most of the area Saturday night. Temperatures still
look very marginal for supporting snow, and even if there were a few
snowflakes, the ground should remain too warm to allow any snow to
stick. High pressure will yield another short period of dry weather
Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday morning. After that, low pressure
will move over New England, dragging a cold front across the region.
Behind the cold front, high pressure will attempt to build in from
the north, but models are on the fence as to how far south the front
will drop before coming stationary. Have continued chance pops
Monday night through Wednesday.

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14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The latest HRRR is crazy... showing 4.7" of rain through 4 pm tomorrow and still many hours of rain to go after that...

Crazy weather, biggest since Michael potentially. Wishing DPS would call school, not going to be safe for the buses

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1 minute ago, rowjimmy73 said:

Crazy weather, biggest since Michael potentially. Wishing DPS would call school, not going to be safe for the buses

Michael was devastating for Danville.  This wont touch that..

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Michael was devastating for Danville.  This wont touch that..

It might not touch it but it will be close if the latest guidance is correct...

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

It might not touch it but it will be close if the latest guidance is correct...

Only has to come close, lots of infrastructure still not repaired down here and 5" would be very bad.

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

It might not touch it but it will be close if the latest guidance is correct...

It won't be close. Wind gusted over 60 mph in Danville and it rained over 6 inches in 6 hours. 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

It won't be close. Wind gusted over 60 mph in Danville and it rained over 6 inches in 6 hours. 

Not talking about the wind , talking about the rain and flooding... latest guidance is suggesting 4-7" of rain near and around Danville... in 24 hrs or less.

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5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Not talking about the wind , talking about the rain and flooding... latest guidance is suggesting 4-7" of rain near and around Danville... in 24 hrs or less.

Just a question? Don’t precip shields erode as they move.  NWS is calling for +-5 for your area as of now.  Could be wrong.  I’ve seen pro Mets call for 1/2 of the accumulations of the models locally.  Not to say your wrong but I would hope so.

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8 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

Just a question? Don’t precip shields erode as they move.  NWS is calling for +-5 for your area as of now.  Could be wrong.  I’ve seen pro Mets call for 1/2 of the accumulations of the models locally.  Not to say your wrong but I would hope so.

Not really sure,  I'm just going by what I've saw and the latest guidance... tomorrow is going to be rough either way..

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24 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said:

Only has to come close, lots of infrastructure still not repaired down here and 5" would be very bad.

The preceding river conditions were way different then. The water levels are much lower now and it would have to rain over 7 inches to even get to moderate flood. There will be some flooding but it is highly unlikely to be close to Michael. I was in Danville when it hit. 3 people were washed away and drowned by the flash flooding, the Dan River rose 20 feet in hours. People underestimate what a disaster it was for the city

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19 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The preceding river conditions were way different then. The water levels are much lower now and it would have to rain over 7 inches to even get to moderate flood. There will be some flooding but it is highly unlikely to be close to Michael. I was in Danville when it hit. 3 people were washed away and drowned by the flash flooding, the Dan River rose 20 feet in hours. People underestimate what a disaster it was for the city

When the Dan River floods it floods.

Alot of low country in the Dan River Basin from the mouth in the mountains through the Piedmont.  I've seen  South Boston Va underwater from the Dan River. 

There is a boat ramp off of 57 SE of Danville along the state line before Hyco Lake that is notorious for flooding. 

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3 minutes ago, FLweather said:

When the Dan River floods it floods.

Alot of low country in the Dan River Basin from the mouth in the mountains through the Piedmont.  I've seen  South Boston Va underwater from the Dan River. 

There is a boat ramp off of 57 SE of Danville along the state line before Hyco Lake that is notorious for flooding. 

I know this well. But the flood from Michael was the worst in recorded history in Danville according to the USGS gage. 

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