• Member Statistics

    15,780
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Xenesthis
    Newest Member
    Xenesthis
    Joined
jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

Recommended Posts

Honestly our best reasonable hope would be the vort max late on the 20th but it looks to pass through dry for the most part.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Suppression city

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

the NW trend will commence in about a week. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Haven't thrown in the towel yet but darn close to. Chasing storms 10+ days out only to have them turn to rain storms (and not even borderline ones) has taken the wind out of my sails with this "Pattern Change." I will, however, enjoy some winter-like days next week before we warm up and rain again

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Shoutout to@eyewall for starting *NEXT* winter's long term thread

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Will probably be more active than this winter's thread the next couple months...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I'm not giving up just yet. The cold is coming and at some point hopefully it links up with moisture...

 

39 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

On the plus side its going to be in the 50s and 60s again next weekend 

These 2 posts back to back just cracked me up...

Ahh, life in the Southeast

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

 

These 2 posts back to back just cracked me up...

Ahh, life in the Southeast

The only thing saving us from 60s to near 70 this weekend will be cloud cover. The EPS looks pretty bad after 10 days too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The only thing saving us from 60s to near 70 this weekend will be cloud cover. The EPS looks pretty bad after 10 days too. 

I don't think it looks terrible. I mean at this point we pretty much know a brief warmup is coming after the cold shot, just gotta deal with it and move on. It does cool down again behind it though. And frankly, I'd like to just see an extended period of normal to slightly below. Here in the southern Apps, and even more so where you are than me, that plus good track and HP can deliver big time. Screw arctic cold, all that ever seems to do is dry us out. I'm tired of wildly swinging between death ridge and anomalous cold. Give me normal to slightly below with an active STJ, and I'll take my chances on climo working out in my favor. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

I don't think it looks terrible. I mean at this point we pretty much know a brief warmup is coming after the cold shot, just gotta deal with it and move on. It does cool down again behind it though. And frankly, I'd like to just see an extended period of normal to slightly below. Here in the southern Apps, and even more so where you are than me, that plus good track and HP can deliver big time. Screw arctic cold, all that ever seems to do is dry us out. I'm tired of wildly swinging between death ridge and anomalous cold. Give me normal to slightly below with an active STJ, and I'll take my chances on climo working out in my favor. 

I would just be happy with a few weeks of dry but that isn't going to happen with this pattern. At least the rain amounts look light for now.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I would just be happy with a few weeks of dry but that isn't going to happen with this pattern. At least the rain amounts look light for now.

Can't disagree with you there, if you're looking for dry it doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon. At least if we'd get some snow it'd be a slow melt and soak instead of all this runoff and mudslides we've been having. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Can't disagree with you there, if you're looking for dry it doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon. At least if we'd get some snow it'd be a slow melt and soak instead of all this runoff and mudslides we've been having. 

If your looking for cold, there doesn’t appear to be any, outside of the next 4-5 days, then back to normal or above! It sucks because normal temps even in January, won’t get us snow!

I knew JB jinxed it yesterday when he said cold was coming the last 2 weeks of January and atleast 1st half of February, non stop for the East !

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

If your looking for cold, there doesn’t appear to be any, outside of the next 4-5 days, then back to normal or above! It sucks because normal temps even in January, won’t get us snow!

I knew JB jinxed it yesterday when he said cold was coming the last 2 weeks of January and atleast 1st half of February, non stop for the East !

The EPS and the GEFS after the brief warmup. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-0472000.thumb.png.b860d802f2615ce622a81df45f0931f3.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-0385600.thumb.png.16f5d1054e5423b65a429f09c6c1c942.png

The warmup is happening but it doesn't seem long lasting for now. Let's try not to freak out over it until there's actually reason to, and the reload stops showing up. How strong or how long the reload is remains to be seen and is just a waiting game I suppose. This could all still go down the crapper and turn warm on us long term, but until it actually shows that I gleefully kiss this month long death ridge goodbye and welcome the new pattern. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Feb isn’t a bad climo month.  

For many in the central and western part of the state, it’s the best month on average. Biggest snow of my life was a Valentines storm. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1973 says hello!:sled:
Don't you dare throw that analog at me... that was 47 years ago Mack, only way I will see 28" is if I move to Maine!

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Don't you dare throw that analog at me... that was 47 years ago Mack, only way I will see 28" is if I move to Maine!

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Orangeburg didn't receive 28" either (more like 18").  No area received 28" of snow.  The most was reported out of Clarendon County in Rimini (with 24 inches).  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:

I’m going to say down to about a 30% chance of measurable snow in Atlanta for 2019-2020 winter.  Just a guess but that’s my thinking. 

Honestly feels fairly optimistic. I'm getting somewhat worried up here in the Mtns. Haven't had more than a skiff on the porch since December 2018, and that's at an elevation that averages 10-12 inches a year. The upcoming pattern is certainly better than where we've been as far as temps go, but it seems fairly hostile for snow because of the fast flow. Just gonna keep hoping climo eventually throws me a bone. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...