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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

The last time I took advice from TWC I was just about ten years old. 

Look at the radar , this isnt ending anytime soon. The same people are always negative and give up way too early during a snowstorm.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Look at the radar , this isnt ending anytime soon. The same people are always negative and give up way too early during a snowstorm.

The 06Z Euro 18-21Z radar matches the radar almost dead on right now 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Their OCMs who make the forecasts are relatively good.  I don't see too many crazy snow forecasts from them inside 48 hours.  They are usually conservative 

They were conservative this morning by going 1-3 inches. They just upped it about 2 hours ago.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Look at the radar , this isnt ending anytime soon. The same people are always negative and give up way too early during a snowstorm.

I've been railing against the negativity this whole time, think we're in line for 2-5" which is a great storm at this time of year. I'm just don't think TWC is very reliable. I respect that you and SnowGoose disagree but to me they're too big a machine to make accurate detailed forecasts. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

I've been railing against the negativity this whole time, think we're in line for 2-5" which is a great storm at this time of year. I'm just don't think TWC is very reliable. I respect that you and SnowGoose disagree but to me they're too big a machine to make accurate detailed forecasts. 

The only time I watch TWC is during storms. They have great coverage.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Look at the radar , this isnt ending anytime soon. The same people are always negative and give up way too early during a snowstorm.

And the same people always wishcast. Both are always represented here.

What I'd like to know is where are the Mets (I'm clearly not one)? Are the pressures dropping off the coast? Why aren't we seeing the radar fill in with more QPF ... and why aren't we seeing the QPF expand to the west a bit before progressing eastward? That is what usually happens with a rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Unless I'm missing something, that's a pretty narrow "band" of QPF with lots of holes that haven't been backfilled.

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am hearing the static on the AM radio from the heavy thunderstorms south of Long Island. There may be some small hail or groupel with the heaviest cells.

13594550-7C33-43EE-8490-F6CF8ED3B6B6.thumb.png.c88bb1270ac9b8f0ab1705a2cbb799c2.png

 

 

 

Robbing some moisture from the band

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Snowing close to heavily now here at 32F with 1/2" on the ground as of noon.  Gorgeous out there folks - go take a Jebwalk  Accumulating well on all surfaces now, which is easy at this rate and with the low sun angle.  

Snowing moderately and 1.5" OTG as of 1:30 pm at 32F.  Roads are slushy, but not too bad, as long as one goes slowly, as I just made a food store run (an excuse to get out, lol); 287 and Route 1 are just mostly wet with a little slush so far, but will likely get worse by 3-4 pm, assuming the snow continues and as the sun goes down.  

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1 minute ago, larrye said:

And the same people always wishcast. Both are always represented here.

What I'd like to know is where are the Mets (I'm clearly not one)? Are the pressures dropping off the coast? Why aren't we seeing the radar fill in with more QPF ... and why aren't we seeing the QPF expand to the west a bit before progressing eastward? That is what usually happens with a rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Unless I'm missing something, that's a pretty narrow "band" of QPF with lots of holes that haven't been backfilled.

This. There's always hyperbole.

The NWS has been pretty decent about this storm. If you look at most models, as this thing pivots and begins transferring to the new Low off the Cape, we do get a chance at more banding. But to think that 'this is just getting going', as if you can just keep looking at model outputs and expect to still reach those totals, infers a serious lack of discipline. The radar and window are your friends, and they're telling you that this won't be a widespread 6+ event, unless there's a substantial redevelopment before it pulls away. 

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Having access to 3 hour panels on 12Z Euro its verifying well through 18z then it loses grip with too much QPF across LI 18-21 and 21-00.  I think the Euro idea is right with the snow axis more or less holding current location through 03Z then falling apart slowly thereafter.  The LI QPF is likely feedback from convection offshore 

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

This. There's always hyperbole.

The NWS has been pretty decent about this storm. If you look at most models, as this thing pivots and begins transferring to the new Low off the Cape, we do get a chance at more banding. But to think that 'this is just getting going', as if you can just keep looking at model outputs and expect to still reach those totals, infers a serious lack of discipline. The radar and window are your friends, and they're telling you that this won't be a widespread 6+ event, unless there's a substantial redevelopment before it pulls away. 

Exactly. Will there be some places that end up under a band a get a few inches? Yep. But it's 2PM. And it's looking more and more to me like if you want to accept reality, this was way overblown (probably because of the mishap last year where that major storm was underforecast in advance). And I'm not so sure the NWS has been "decent". They started out with 6"-12" north/northwest of NYC. Then 3"-6". They're still showing 5"-10" for northern Westchester. Depends upon how you define "decent".

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Just now, larrye said:

Exactly. Will there be some places that end up under a band a get a few inches? Yep. But it's 2PM. And it's looking more and more to me like if you want to accept reality, this was way overblown (probably because of the mishap last year where that major storm was underforecast in advance). And I'm not so sure the NWS has been "decent". They started out with 6"-12" north/northwest of NYC. Then 3"-6". They're still showing 5"-10" for northern Westchester. Depends upon how you define "decent".

They might bust low North and West, but there's always the chance for action out there because of lifting. I wouldn't be surprised if it's still snowing out there as the Low pulls the main banding away from the metro. 

That being said, I say decent because I think 2-4" is a decent call, but that is for my neck of the woods. I do think they were stubborn in buying the easterly solution for where this banding has set up; the NAM might be a tad east, but it led the way with what we're seeing. It's just not what a lot of people here wanted to see. 

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50 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I assume you mean for coastal Queens and Kings County? Yes, don't expect much accumulation at all in those areas. I guess I could have put them in the 1-2" range but either way I think it's right around 1".

FYI I don't believe that was directed at you at all,,,,,,,,,,but it was directed towards someone else,,,,,,I could be mistaken but I don't think so

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42 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The only time I watch TWC is during storms. They have great coverage.

Watching an inch of snow fall in Scranton over 30 hours has been endlessly fascinating.  :)

 

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