Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

[NJsnow89]

Nam is bad! 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, kingbaus said:

What hour are you up to?

48

[NYCweatherNOW]

Garbage run... could happen icon has been hinting at this throughout the whole week. We just got unNam’d

[danstorm]

NAM is a strung out POS 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Garbage run... could happen icon has been hinting at this throughout the whole week. We just got unNam’d

Finally gets a little actual snow into the city at 54

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88, Bensonhurst 84th street 19th avenue , apartment house , I would watch the streetlight whenever it snowed.

40’s, 50’s and early 60’s I lived off of 11th Avenue on 75th street, Bay Ridge Parkway. We still had power lines on the big wood telephone poles, one was in front of my house with the street light. I remember when those first street lights were installed. I had to angle my view with a tree branch to cut the glare. I remember sneaking a call to We6-1212 to get the latest temperature. Memories swirling in a shaken snow globe. As always ...

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, danstorm said:

NAM is a strung out POS 

NAM doesn't show a band at all anywhere until you get to eastern NE, the low seems too far east and weak to have any real impact for this area

[NJsnow89]

Not bad for NE. But terrible for our area. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

NAM doesn't show a band at all anywhere, the low seems too far east and weak to have any real impact

It never consolidates the energy from what I can see. It also appears that the kicker 'kicks' or repels vs phasing a bit. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

Guys it still manages to hit us with 3-6 that’s not too bad for December 1-2nd 

 

it gets going late also New England isn’t too happy with the run! They’re expecting a historic storm and they just got a secs of that

[NYCweatherNOW]

The confluence is very strong on this run. No precip goes north of Bangor Maine if that

[EasternLI]

Awfully dry air at H7 that nam run. 

[NJsnow89]

3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Guys it still manages to hit us with 3-6 that’s not too bad for December 1-2nd 

 

it gets going late also New England isn’t too happy with the run! They’re expecting a historic storm and they just got a secs of that

It’s still a terrible run for our area. We need it to get going faster. NE is CRUSHED!

[Enigma]

People are surprised by the NAM? We can't get a worse setup for a meaningful snowfall in these parts.

[NYCweatherNOW]

Just now, Enigma said:

People are surprised by the NAM? We can't get a worse setup for a meaningful snowfall in these parts.

You called for half inch for Central Park I doubt you’ll be wrong lol nam still shows warning snows 

[danstorm]

4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Guys it still manages to hit us with 3-6 that’s not too bad for December 1-2nd 

I actually gave up on it, you're right, there is a period of snow at 51-57 hr that may salvage a decent event.  

We'll see - certainly doesn't seem to come together fast enough 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

You called for half inch for Central Park I doubt you’ll be wrong lol nam still shows warning snows 

There is no way NYC would actually get warning snow if that run played out like that. NYC is going to need heavy precip to get warning snow with temps that marginal  and a wet ground

[MJO812]

H5 looked good. Weird run.

[NYCweatherNOW]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

There is no way NYC would actually get warning snow if that run played out like that. NYC is going to need heavy precip to get warning snow with temps that marginal  and a wet ground

That was heavy snow for 6 straight hours. U can get great growth with no wind and tumbling temps!

[USCG RS]

Just now, Snow88 said:

H5 looked good. Weird run.

Here's the thing -and this is strictly my opinion- there is blocking in the Atlantic. H5 also looked significantly different from the surface projections. I would say the NAM is having issues regarding when and where to consolidate the energy. While I would not go as far as to discount it currently, I would say that I would like to see the rest of 00z suite, specifically the RGEM. 

[White Gorilla]

9 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Here's the thing -and this is strictly my opinion- there is blocking in the Atlantic. H5 also looked significantly different from the surface projections. I would say the NAM is having issues regarding when and where to consolidate the energy. While I would not go as far as to discount it currently, I would say that I would like to see the rest of 00z suite, specifically the RGEM. 

Has the NAM historically had hiccup runs like this with complex systems inside 48?  We know that the crazy uncle often goes wild with too much qpf, but the other direction? 

[CIK62]

The GFS has Manhattan at 34 to 46 during the duration of the storm.      Even the Albany District barely stays below 32 for the duration.

At any rate the EURO 18Z is around 7" still.     The CMC 12Z was 6".       SREF is 4".       GFS is hard on itself and has less than 1".

The 18Z NAM by the Cobb Method is 13"+, while the GFS is all Rain, nearly 2" is wasted

In our biggest snowstorm ever, about 5 years ago, the NAM was spitting out some 40"+ Cobb Method runs.      So we did get 30.5" at JFK.   btw:   The Cobb Method for Albany is NAM    23",    GFS    9".

Official:

[USCG RS]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Has the NAM historically had hiccup runs like this with complex systems inside 48?  We know that the crazy uncle often goes wild with too much qpf, but the other direction? 

It has. It tends to be rather fickle due to the manner in which it was designed.

[kingbaus]

3k nam is horrendous. dry spot city 

[NorthShoreWx]

36 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Thanks man. When you moving back to LB?

Never lived there.  40.88N is as far south as I go.

[jfklganyc]

40 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

my old man woke me up during the Blizzard of 78 must of been 2 in the morning , he said " sorry to wake you up but you have to take a look at this" and he had me look at the streetlight outside my window but the lite right across the street was very hard to see and I could not make out the building across the street. He said "take a good look you might not ever see it snow this hard again in your lifetime " he was right I think that was the hardest I ever saw it snow

We lived in Astoria for the big el Nino blizzard a few years ago and I could quote your father.

 

You know when you’re looking at something that’s going to come around once in your lifetime. You just know

[psv88]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

Never lived there.  40.88N is as far south as I go.

Haha my bad I meant that for @jm1220, he needs to leave Suffolk so we can snow again 

[White Gorilla]

Any word on the SREF plumes? 

[jm1220]

Same overall situation applies as 3 days ago. We’re the poodles begging for table strips from the upper low, Boston on west I-90 and much of upstate NY feasts on the 25-lb turkey, stuffing, potatoes, pies, cranberry sauce, cookies, etc. The NAM, Euro earlier snuck us down a drumstick and mushed up pumpkin pie no one else wanted. I guess this run is the drool from the remainder of the raccoon and stray cat slaughtered carcass.

[NorthShoreWx]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Same overall situation applies as 3 days ago. We’re the poodles begging for table strips from the upper low, Boston on west I-90 and much of upstate NY feasts on the 25-lb turkey, stuffing, potatoes, pies, cranberry sauce, cookies, etc. The NAM, Euro earlier snuck us down a drumstick and mushed up pumpkin pie no one else wanted. I guess this run is the drool from the remainder of the raccoon and stray cat slaughtered carcass.

My friend's poodle does that ... and it's fat!