Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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Just now, qg_omega said:

I think Berkshires jack

They do not have the elevation to get the lift on the easterly flow that the southern greens have. You can really ring out the moisture on the east side of the greens in these events. Regardless it should be close with more synoptic precip further south. If I had to pick a precise jackpot it would be mt. Graylock at 3491’ in the Berkshires. It’s going to puke snow out there for 36 hours. 
Down in the city round two is a tuff call. I’m hesitant to go big based on past events underperforming on the back side. But with the right band pivoting through you could surprise all the way to 8” hence my 2-8” call 

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9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This isn’t our storm. Suffolk County will Probably be the only location north of Toms River in the entire NE without snow. A real painful storm incoming

I think this is one of the wacky storms where right up against the sound rains while 2 miles inland scores. The front end is going to be a whole lot of nothing on the island regardless. It comes down to banding on the backside. I wouldn’t throw in the towel for you. Your in a good spot for a backside surprise 

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17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This isn’t our storm. Suffolk County will Probably be the only location north of Toms River in the entire NE without snow. A real painful storm incoming

And you can blame that on me moving up there. Guaranteed ;)

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18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

good low level speed convergence while h5 deform is overhead

rgem_mslp_uv850_neus_55.png

Yeah you’ll usually do well in NYC with a low in that spot when the system is close to stacked and closed.  There’s always a rare instance where you can be skunked because of various factors (such as cold air supply as you mentioned earlier) but it’s hard not to at least get a few inches 

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5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think this is one of the wacky storms where right up against the sound rains while 2 miles inland scores. The front end is going to be a whole lot of nothing on the island regardless. It comes down to banding on the backside. I wouldn’t throw in the towel for you. Your in a good spot for a backside surprise 

It’s been about where the backlash banding happens for us regardless. It’s been that way for 72 hours. Boston to the Catskills along with much of upstate NY and into NNE has been where to get the best of the storm. That’s been clear for quite some time. We’re the poodle yipping for table scraps. 

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21 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This isn’t our storm. Suffolk County will Probably be the only location north of Toms River in the entire NE without snow. A real painful storm incoming

Dang.  Sounds like 1914 all over again.  I'm pretty much in step with the consensus for LI but not high confidence.  I can see a lot that can go wrong with this one.

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23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think this is one of the wacky storms where right up against the sound rains while 2 miles inland scores. The front end is going to be a whole lot of nothing on the island regardless. It comes down to banding on the backside. I wouldn’t throw in the towel for you. Your in a good spot for a backside surprise 

Models have mostly been suggesting that but I'm not convinced.  I don't have any basis of comparison regarding heat content of the Sound waters, but the surface water temps have cooled to the point where I don't think it's usually enough to be fatal.  Right on the beaches maybe, but a quarter of a mile away up the hill or on top of the bluff might be no worse off than the rest of the island.

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20 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88, Bensonhurst 84th street 19th avenue , apartment house , I would watch the streetlight whenever it snowed.

That is a city thing I remember doing it in Whitestone

I remember what the light looks like and I remember when they finally changed the light pole a few years back

I think you touched a nerve and brought back a warm memory

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2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

That is a city thing I remember doing it in Whitestone

I remember what the light looks like and I remember when they finally changed the light pole a few years back

I think you touched a nerve and brought back a warm memory

Nothing beats the orange lights, use to stare for hours waiting to see if the rain went to snow 

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24 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88, Bensonhurst 84th street 19th avenue , apartment house , I would watch the streetlight whenever it snowed.

I live  in Sheepshead Bay

My fiancee lives  on Bay Parkway and 21st Avenue 

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25 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Current temp is 30F, but I notice it is 40F in Central Park

That will be a big factor tomorrow morning

Eh somewhat, this is radiational cooling which is not really reflective of temps tomorrow morning. I think Westchester will see frozen tomorrow morning where as the city may see barely any frozen but the temp difference won't be this dramatic after daybreak and when the clouds roll in

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4 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_fh17_trend.thumb.gif.dd1272fe2bc012cdca5c8937ec63e5a2.gif

A touch quicker this time, but not by much.

Faster is better for frozen, surprised to see it starting as plain rain for some of the area even with the low dewpoints

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25 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

That is a city thing I remember doing it in Whitestone

I remember what the light looks like and I remember when they finally changed the light pole a few years back

I think you touched a nerve and brought back a warm memory

my old man woke me up during the Blizzard of 78 must of been 2 in the morning , he said " sorry to wake you up but you have to take a look at this" and he had me look at the streetlight outside my window but the lite right across the street was very hard to see and I could not make out the building across the street. He said "take a good look you might not ever see it snow this hard again in your lifetime " he was right I think that was the hardest I ever saw it snow

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Dang.  Sounds like 1914 all over again.  I'm pretty much in step with the consensus for LI but not high confidence.  I can see a lot that can go wrong with this one.

Thanks man. When you moving back to LB?

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Wow NAM does not look impressive, this is why I've been urging caution about Monday, so much fluctuation run to run when relying on one band.

Hick up... let’s see the whole run

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Wow NAM does not look impressive, this is why I've been urging caution about Monday, so much fluctuation run to run when relying on one band.

Nam usually has these off runs. Let's see the rest of the run.

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Wow NAM does not look impressive, this is why I've been urging caution about Monday, so much fluctuation run to run when relying on one band.

What hour are you up to?

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Wow NAM does not look impressive, this is why I've been urging caution about Monday, so much fluctuation run to run when relying on one band.

Not discounting the Nam..but im waiting for models like RGEM and  HRR tommorow  now if they are garbage  tommorow  then yeah could be done deal.

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