JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: What's the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Gfs is pretty sweet near and just inland from the coast. A little colder from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Both statements are true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Both statements are true? Looks tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs is pretty sweet near and just inland from the coast. A little colder from 18z. All day every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Pretty sick run imo. Someone is going to pile it up. Toss qpf and clown maps for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 So just how bad are FV3 thermals? Are they as bad as the last couple winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: All day every day Sweet looking 500 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 methinks we'll be getting our first storm-mode status tomorrow with the banning of clown maps and such and being 'only bidness posts' during the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: All day every day That’s a great look at 500.....always love the closed upper levels going south of SNE like that.....where it launches vortices into our fannies..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Even the qpf is better than I thought and I still think it could be too light in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Even the qpf is better than I thought and I still think it could be too light in spots. Yeah--approaching 2" in a jack zone. Let's see how that looks in 36 hours from now (or 6 hours from now for that matter). Calling it a night. Hopefully the EC will rock it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: So just how bad are FV3 thermals? Are they as bad as the last couple winters? Bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Go out to 114 hour then press total. That's a pretty decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 More precip in the cold sector again. Low level jet cranking a bit more on this run but still could be better. GFS finally realizing this is a legit snowstorm and it might not be done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, Hoth said: So just how bad are FV3 thermals? Are they as bad as the last couple winters? Well it's only been around for one winter so far, but there remains a cold bias so take temp profiles with a grain of salt and know that the actual outcome could likely be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Another 24 hrs of model ingest and it should be obvious. Jerries antecedent air mass is great. If modeling is correct there will be a WAA burst then some lulls before we meat. Expect bust calls as it evolves. Patience grasshoppers Blockbuster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 My 73 year wait may be nearing an end..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well it's only been around for one winter so far, but there remains a cold bias so take temp profiles with a grain of salt and know that the actual outcome could likely be warmer. Since Nov here it’s been too warm at mid levels so IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: My 73 year wait may be nearing an end..... The WAA burst will satiate your want it appears as of today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well it's only been around for one winter so far, but there remains a cold bias so take temp profiles with a grain of salt and know that the actual outcome could likely be warmer. I thought the gfs is usually too warm and is not good with dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Since Nov here it’s been too warm at mid levels so IDK Still looks like a -0.5 bias, especially beyond 144 hours to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I thought the gfs is usually too warm and is not good with dynamics. The GFS has always struggle with boundary layer temps being too warm, because it had trouble resolving mesoscale details like the coastal front/CAD. As the resolution has improved so have the low level temp forecasts, to a degree. It still wants to bring surface warm fronts through too quickly in the cool season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Still looks like a -0.5 bias, especially beyond 144 hours to me. Here? I just have been following inside 72. It’s been so far off mids outside that it’s basically useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 What a crushing on cmc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: What a crushing on cmc! I'd hit it. Looks like a nice CCB forms. Goodnight folks happy thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 CMC north through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: CMC north through 60 Its finished on stormvista SNE gets hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Heavy sleet to the CT border for the waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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