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NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Canddjab is basically warning snows from New York City and north. Very nice run

There's a lot of sleet so I wouldn't take those snow maps verbatim but I would definitely sign up for that CMC run overall, would be a fun storm.

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

There's a lot of sleet so I wouldn't take those snow maps verbatim but I would definitely sign up for that CMC run overall, would be a fun storm.

No it isn’t. The low transfers and temps crash, all layers cool below zero Celsius resulting in heavy snow.

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Not sure if anyone posted this but OKX radar is down starting 12/3 for an upgrade.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/SLEP-KOKX-December

Beginning December 3, 2019, the KOKX WSR-88D radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Upton, New York will be down for approximately five days for the refurbishment of the transmitter. Although the form, fit, and function of the transmitter will remain the same, old breakers and cables original to the radar will be replaced with modern fuses and new cables. This will help keep the radar operating smoothly for another 20 years.

This transmitter update is the second major project of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program, a series of upgrades and replacements that will keep our nation’s radars viable into the 2030’s. NOAA National Weather Service, the United States Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration are investing $150 million in the seven year program. The first project was the installation of the new signal processor. The two remaining projects are the refurbishment of the pedestal and equipment shelters. The Service Life Extension Program will complete in 2022.

 

 

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2 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Upton in their morning AFD going for mostly rain at the coast after starting off as some snow and with a snow/sleet/rain event inland for Sun-Mon event. 

They will change that

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Gfs is a slow mover with the CCB in a great spot. Now get the temps colder and we should see a nice storm. 

 

Gfs did cave here

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40 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS still a mess but it's slowing getting there toward the other models

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

They will change that

Would like to see the Euro come south to really feel like this storm is in business (it still has accumulating snow only north of the city) however I like the trends a lot. If nothing else the timing of the precip on the frontend has sped up which means it should definitely start snow or sleet.

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The first week of December is averaging 38degs., or about 3degs. BN.

Snow summary Dec. 2-3:               EURO 4",  GFS 2",  CMC 3".        Cobb Method   GFS 1"    but the NAM is 11" and still snowing at hour 84!(Tues.7am)----storm is outside the NAM's accurate period, however.

Officially:         After this event, prepare to be bored or disappointed--since the Total Snowfall for the next 384 hours all around here, looks the same as the next 72 hour total.      DTwxRisk says you can WYA with the rest of December.       Ah! X-MAS to the rescue.StormTotalSnow.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Nice trend on the AO today going to briefly peak positive many members now take it negative in the longer range also the mjo looks to die off in Phase 3 avoiding. 4 5 and 6 definitely a different progression than last year but we shall see as guidance usually doesn't have a good handle on the mjo

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The first 8 days of December are averaging 37degs., or about 3degs. BN.

Storm Summary: 

EURO 4", GFS 1"(has long breaks in precip.), CMC 11",    NAM(Cobb) 4".

All models Rain and 50degs.+ in about 9 days.    

And most importantly, 33* here at 6am.     34* at 7am.         36* by 10am.      35* at 11am.       34* at Noon.     40* by 5pm.

Not a runaway AN for us, but not good.    The next 2 Weeks already looking  like the last box.      Warming after the 5th., while averages should confer a downward  or even slope over a 10 day period, 6th-15th.

2019120100_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201912.gif

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November 2019 ends up averaging 43.9 in NYC...1995 is the closest to 2019 for November temperatures...1959 and 2013 continue to be in the game...both had a mild spell in December and ended up with an average temperature above normal..December snowfall was above average for all three of these years...all analogs listed had above average snowfall except 1977 which ended up with over 50" for the season...

2019-20 analogs...

NYC monthly average temperature from Sept-Mar...

feel free to add any analogs used for this winters forecast...I will add them to the list...

year...…Sept.....OCT.....NOV.....DEC.....JAN.....FEB.....MAR.....snowfall...

2019...…70.4.....59.9.....43.9…………………………………………….

1959...…72.3.....59.8.....45.8.....38.4.....33.9.....36.3.....33.3...…..39.2"

1969...…69.0.....57.7.....46.4.....33.4.....25.1.....33.0.....38.7...…..25.6"

1977...…68.2.....54.9.....47.3.....35.7.....28.0.....27.2.....39.0...…..50.7"

1995...…68.3.....61.6.....43.6.....32.4.....30.5.....33.9.....38.9...…..75.6"

2002...…70.2.....55.2.....46.0.....36.0.....27.5.....30.1.....43.1...…..49.8"

2003...…67.9.....55.1.....50.0.....37.6.....24.7.....35.0.....43.5...…..42.6"

2013...…67.9.....60.2.....45.3.....38.5.....28.6.....31.6.....37.7...…..57.4"

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

1959 compared to 2019...a graft will show the ups and downs better...the wettest day and warmest min were on the same dates..

November 1959 and 2019...………………...……...

……………….2019...…………………….1959...…………….

day...max...min...rain"...snow"...…………....max...min...rain"..snow"

01.....71.....42.....0.11"...0...……………..….61.....50.....0.11"...0

02.....53.....40...…..0...….0...………………...52.....38.....0.01"...0

03.....54.....42...…..0...….0...………………...49.....35...…..0...….0

04.....56.....41...…..0...….0...………………...61.....46.....0.04"...0

05.....61.....51...…..0...….0...………………...72.....61...…..0...….0

06.....54.....45...…..0...….0...………………...73.....46.....0.67"...0

07.....57.....41.....0.10"...0...………………...46.....36.....0.82"...0

08.....41.....29...…..0...….0...………………...42.....37...…..0...….0

09.....41.....27...…..0...….0...………………...52.....34...…..0...….0

10.....51.....38...…..0...….0...………………...54.....39...…..0...….0

11.....62.....46...…..0...….0...…………………57.....43...…..0...….0

12.....57.....25.....0.04"...T...………………...59.....47...…..T...….0

13.....34.....23...…..0...….0...………………...55.....41.....0.01"...0

14.....45.....28...…..0...….0...………………...67.....50.....0.62"...0

15.....51.....37...…..0...….0...………………...50.....41...…..0...….0

16.....42.....31...…..0...….0...………………...50.....39...…..0...….0

17.....43.....30...…..0...….0...………………...51.....26.....0.38"...0

18.....42.....37.....0.48"...0...………………...33.....21...…..0...….0

19.....48.....40.....0.18"...M..………………...44.....28...…..0...….0

20.....49.....40...…..0...….0...………………...43.....32...…..0...….0

21.....53.....39...…..0...….0...………………...50.....39...…..0...….0

22.....53.....38.....0.07"...0...………………...53.....39...…..0...….0

23.....45.....34.....0.03"...0...………………...53.....40...…..T...….0

24.....46.....40.....0.90"...0...………………...61.....51.....1.10"...0

25.....53.....39...…..0...….0...………………...59.....38.....0.28"...0

26.....61.....44...…..0...….0...………………...44.....32...…..0...….0

27.....59.....49.....0.04"...0...………………...60.....41...…..T...….0

28.....53.....37...…..T...….0...………………...62.....37.....0.13"...0

29.....40…...30……..0...….0…………………...37.....27.....0.05"..0.5"

30.....43.....31...…..0...….0…………………...38.....26...…..0...….0

 

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ah so not as cold as November 1989, but nearly as cold as November 1995?

Also, 1959-60 was one of your analogs!

Uncle I got confused by this part:

.all analogs listed had above average snowfall except 1977 which ended up with over 50" for the season...

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

ah so not as cold as November 1989, but nearly as cold as November 1995?

Also, 1959-60 was one of your analogs!

Uncle I got confused by this part:

.all analogs listed had above average snowfall except 1977 which ended up with over 50" for the season...

 

sorry...it should say all analogs listed had above average snowfall in December except 1977 which ended up with over 50" for the season...

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

ah so not as cold as November 1989, but nearly as cold as November 1995?

Also, 1959-60 was one of your analogs!

Uncle I got confused by this part:

.all analogs listed had above average snowfall except 1977 which ended up with over 50" for the season...

 

1989 averaged 45.7 in November...

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, can you also look up November 1996?  For some reason JFK has November 1996 listed as one of their coldest Novembers, but not November 1995.  That has me very confused!

 

43.0 in 1996...I'm not sure if 1989 or 1996 was used as analogs for this winter otherwise I would add them to the list......

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3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

43.0 in 1996...I'm not sure if 1989 or 1996 was used as analogs for this winter otherwise I would add them to the list......

So this means that JFK was significantly milder in November 1995 (more than a degree milder) but significantly colder in November 1996?  On the last page, November 1996 avg temp for JFK is listed as a bit more than 42 degrees, while November 1995 isn't even on the list (which means it had a mean temp of more than 44.6)?

1996-97 was also a book end winter, but it was better further north than 1959-60 was, I remember reading that Worcester had two big storms- Dec 1996 and Apr 1997, and virtually nothing in between.

 

 

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A complex, long-duration, two-part winter storm is now affecting the region. Just outside New York City, the first snowfall of the season whitened the ground.

Storm total snowfall amounts so far include:

Albany: 2.8"
Allentown: Trace
Binghamton: 0.2"
Bridgeport: Trace
Hartford: 1.4"
New York City: Trace
Newark: 0.1"

More significant snow could develop later tomorrow as the vigorous upper-level low associated with the system swings eastward and rapidly develops. The guidance has been in good agreement with the development of an intense band of snow. Model disagreement persists with the exact placement of the band.

New York City (Central Park) and Newark continue to appear in line for a general 3"-6" snowfall. On account of the aforementioned band of intense snowfall, either or both locations could see notably less or notably more snow. The exact amounts might not become clear with a high degree of confidence until overnight.

The following storm total amounts are likely for select cities in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions:

Albany: 12"-18"
Allentown: 4"-8"
Binghamton: 8"-16"
Boston: 5"-10"
Bridgeport: 2"-4" (high uncertainty)
Hartford: 6"-12"
Islip: 1"-3"
Philadelphia: 3"-6" (high uncertainty)
Providence: 4"-8"
Worcester: 8"-16" 

Following its warmest autumn by far, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is currently on course to register its first annual mean temperature of 20.0° or above. That city's warmest year on record was 2016 with an annual average temperature of 18.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was +4.10 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.109.

Daily MJO data was unavailable. Outgoing long-wave radiation is currently unavailable according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The BOM is working on the issue.

After a generally cold first week of December, warmer conditions will likely return. There is a chance that the second week of December could see one or more days with much above normal readings topping out in the 50s and perhaps even near 60° in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Overall, December will likely finish somewhat warmer than normal to warmer than normal across the region.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

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The next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 1deg. BN.

39* here at 6am and going nowhere apparently.     38* at 7am.      37* by 10am.     36* by Noon.   35* at 12:30pm with snow.    34* at 1:30pm and at least the beach surface has begun to turn white.       Back to 35* and no snow falling by 5pm.       34* by 7pm with snow again.    33* at 8pm, snowing.     32* at 8:30pm, snowing.

Most major models have from 0" to 4" of Snow for NYC on their latest runs.    Maybe 6" on the NAM 12km---if anyone in the City sees the start of measurable snow this afternoon instead of tomorrow AM as storm sputters out.

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