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Dr. Dews

December 2019 Discussion

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I don't know how the modelers/NCEP managed to serve this GFS this way, but they somehow improved storm track while maintaining a horrifically egregious progressivity bias overall.

I think if they fix the fact that the base-line scaffold of this model tries to make the flow laminar out in time at least excuse imaginable, first, they might have a f'n chance and clue at really fixing their storm track guidance.  Look at the 06z GFS op at 210 hours... whether that happens, not with standing, but how often does one see a 1032 mb arctic high with 500 DAM thickness NW of Maine, and a deep low scooting E of the VA Capes, and rain...not snow...tickling NYC at a N FRINGE ... That is a manifestation of non-intersecting jet structures, that happens when the flow gets too god damned stretched. It's erroneously rotating all vectors too much into W-E, or E-W orientation to liberally - at all levels.  All winter long, we're going to be dealing with that garbage. 

Yet the Euro?  They over-do it in the other direction.  

I almost wonder, if they removed their so dubbed "4-D variable correction scheme" and run their model, if it would be doing the same thing as the GFS.  I mean, it scratches the head why using the same exact physical equations could be so demonstratively different - but I guess that holds true for all guidance types.  GGEM...UKMET ...GONAPS.  They must all be "over-thinking" nature and trying to imagine a better solution out in time. It's like watching my family prep dishes around the Holiday's, and instead of making them yummy based on the nature of yore ...they fumble around and f- it up, and make just sorta good. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah awesome. Screwed in the memorable storm but jacked in a forgettable fart. 

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

And Mark says I am a Queen......

Next time Will post something and says for the queens you two will come to mind.

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

Next time Will post something and says for the queens you two will come to mind.

I'm not a QPF Queen though. There is only one Queen in that land. The only Queens are the ones that don't want to hear about unfavorable patterns. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not a QPF Queen though. There is only one Queen in that land. The only Queens are the ones that don't want to hear about unfavorable patterns. 

We will be adding more queens over the next two weeks then if that's the case, I don't see anything that excites me winter wise ATT.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Next weekend has potential esp up north imo.  

Well, It does, But it could also be another cutter, I'm not sold at this lead that it ends up wintry.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not a QPF Queen though. There is only one Queen in that land. The only Queens are the ones that don't want to hear about unfavorable patterns. 

I think Mahky Mahk was referring to you being a complaining queen that gets the goods after a tantrum or two.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Well, It does, But it could also be another cutter, I'm not sold at this lead that it ends up wintry.

Could be a cutter too, agree. I don’t like the look in Canada at the moment. We’ll see as the weekend unfolds if it gains traction. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think Mahky Mahk was referring to you being a complaining queen that gets the goods after a tantrum or two.

He might have misinterpreted what I said then. I was stating what the euro had or what the potential was, when he made that comment. No complaints this early in the season. Hopefully next weekend doesn't cut. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

He might have misinterpreted what I said then. I was stating what the euro had or what the potential was, when he made that comment. No complaints this early in the season. Hopefully next weekend doesn't cut. 

Cutter risk greater than a whiff?

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cutter risk greater than a whiff?

Well nothing is 0% this far out, but I'd say liquid is a greater concern vs a whiff. 

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Arctic hounds come in behind both those cutters too, That's the part that's frustrating.

That’s part of our wonderful Climo 

Always great when HP is centered south of us and slides into Atlantic prior to a shortwave moving across country

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