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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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The surface depiction is just noise at this point, especially the GFS which had a totally goofy evolution. The features aloft have largely trended in our favor today in terms of seeing some front end frozen precip. The 500 mb vort depicted in today's ensemble guidance is close to being in a favorable spot for DCA, but would still need to be considerably farther south in order to get anything from the coastal. Otherwise, the best dynamics would take place farther north and it's a congrats SNE. 

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6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I've always had this question - do models actually suffer from this? I'd assume that each run has no "recollection" of what the prior ran show. Therefore, shouldn't it just show what is modeled regardless of the prior run? 

Mods and shadow mods - this was not intended to be OT. 

I think it's relevant here.  Don't all operational models use the prior runs in some way or another? 

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49 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Expected to see a better surface depiction after seeing this at 500.  Does it have to do with the angle of approach of the ULL?  I know most of out storms have it trek through the VA/NC boarder but this is moving more NW to SE as it crosses the area.

Euro Vort Map.png

Positively tilted trough is no bueno in these parts.  

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43 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Would like to see a 50/50 but not a bad look in the long range from EPS.  

088AB409-00A9-471B-B2CD-6C5C62C21AF7.png

Maybe something can eject out of that little bag in the sw but for the most part looks ns dominant.

Will clippers ever come back. I would like someone who knows to explain where they have gone.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Positively tilted trough is no bueno in these parts.  

Feb 1983 storm had an oblong shaped positive tilt fyi. Was a phase job so a different beast but you are painting with a broad brush. Sometimes they can work out. And with a power block crazy things tend to happen.

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The Pacific pattern is moving.. MJO.. surprising from what I have seen. Switch to heavy +NAO in the medium dampens cold/-NAO chances as a sustainable Winter pattern (N Atlantic SST index). Pacific looks terrible.. Pac jet flowing up through Alaska. 

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2 minutes ago, UniversesBelowNormal said:

The Pacific pattern is moving.. MJO.. surprising from what I have seen. Switch to heavy +NAO in the medium dampens cold/-NAO chances as a sustainable Winter pattern. Pacific looks terrible.. Pac jet flowing up through Alaska. 

And did you hear the AO is going ++++++++++++++++++ as well? Fun times.

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4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I see this as possibly some light frozen in the beginning, mostly rain, ull thumps the mountains to our west, coastal gives the eastern areas a shot at some wrap around snow, but most of the northern va area is left with next to nothing. Don’t see this as a cad setup either. 
 

Not at all trying to be negative but my “reality” check tells me this is a no chance scenario for at least my local area. Eastern MD possibly but not for most of us.

Not over for us yet. We can score some with the WAA before it shuts off. It really depends on that HP over the top for us. It is rotting rapidly on most of the models Goes from 1038 to 1026 on the high res Euro. Keep it pumping in the cold air a little longer and we could see a couple of inches. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not over for us yet. We can score some with the WAA before it shuts off. It really depends on that HP over the top for us. It is rotting rapidly on most of the models Goes from 1038 to 1026 on the high res Euro. Keep it pumping in the cold air a little longer and we could see a couple of inches. 

I just can’t see us getting that much precip out of this. I’ve been proven wrong before though.

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Models are trending favorably for the period shortly after the Dec 2nd event.

Below we have the GEFS 500s from 2 days ago. Notice the deep push southward of the trough. Cold, dry suppressive look.

500s2daysago.gif.d67b54b45a076f8a95e13b52d9b869e7.gif

Here is the surface. Pretty unimpressive for our chances. What sets this look up is that our Dec 2nd storm quickly ejects northward and reinforces the low in northern Canada.

surface2daysago.gif.18d7b539c9a07e35e39a91d9fd3a04b4.gif

 

Now we have today's run at 500's. Suppression is gone. What we are now seeing is the Dec 2nd storm is taking it's time and rotating up through the 50/50 region. What this is creating is a small bump up of ridging in the east (red arrow) and in response we are seeing NS energy getting bumped southward (black arrow). 

500s.gif.fbb58ab1a345c359d3a8f5f76e64eb8f.gif

And if you notice the surface we are now seeing low pressures dropping out of Canada and southward compared to 2 days ago which had high pressures.

surface.gif.4655003de6a3f4683a1966f6ee6afbe6.gif

The GEFS isn't alone. The EPS has gone through same run to run changes these last couple days as well. Below is the current 500's Though not as pronounced you can still see the same features now showing up.

eps.gif.7c011b917c19fa7f55720874461c4d4a.gif

Now I am not calling for a storm at this time. Just noting that the potential has ratcheted up a good bit from just the dry/cold and a possible clipper advertised a couple of days ago.

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2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I think it's relevant here.  Don't all operational models use the prior runs in some way or another? 

I don't believe this is correct. To the best of my knowledge each model run is discrete, based on a set of initial conditions and executed from that point, independent of any previous model cycles. Someone can correct me if i am wrong.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't believe this is correct. To the best of my knowledge each model run is discrete, based on a set of initial conditions and executed from that point, independent of any previous model cycles. Someone can correct me if i am wrong.

Yes, each run is initialized with brand new data then model physics takes it from there. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Maybe something can eject out of that little bag in the sw but for the most part looks ns dominant.

Will clippers ever come back. I would like someone who knows to explain where they have gone

Some mets are looking for their return this winter. As mentioned a while back,  some pros and certain seasonal winter forecasts have mentioned better odds this winter of Alberta clippers, etc., would love a Manitoba Mauler that cripples the Northern Mid Atlantic. 

As for where have they gone, seems since we had that massive warming in the Pac a few years back , it has been sort of blah, just speculation really.    

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Gfs is pretty much the same as the 12z euro

I like the timing of this run. WAA snow/sleet comes in after dark Saturday. Better chance to get on the board. 

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More separation from the N Atlantic low this run allows hieghts to bump up a bit out ahead . Really wraps up well this run . Much tighter to the coast and the western side of the precip probably underdone this far out .Ne Md pummeled lol with the coastal. Actually Harford, Cecil get a nice storm verbatim. Another positive step.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs is pretty much the same as the 12z euro

Well it is until Sunday, then still does the capture and deform. Just a bit farther NE then 12z.

 

Seems to me the front end of the storm is getting pretty well narrowed on options (although I still expect we’ll end up on the outside of WAA snow), but the back end and coastal transfer is poorly constrained.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I like the timing of this run. WAA snow/sleet comes in after dark Saturday. Better chance to get on the board. 

No doubt. The only way I'd be bummed about an inch or so of snow would be if all the models give me 4+ 24 hours before the event. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

No doubt. The only way I'd be bummed about an inch or so of snow would be if all the models give me 4+ 24 hours before the event. 

I’d be thrilled with 1” of snow. I’m still skeptical, but I’m starting to believe it’s possible. Let’s see a run like this on Thursday’s happy hour when we’re all drunk and fat and I’ll get my hopes up.

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

Some mets are looking for their return this winter. As mentioned a while back,  some pros and certain seasonal winter forecasts have mentioned better odds this winter of Alberta clippers, etc., would love a Manitoba Mauler that cripples the Northern Mid Atlantic. 

As for where have they gone, seems since we had that massive warming in the Pac a few years back , it has been sort of blah, just speculation really.    

We had quite a few clipper type systems in 13/14 and 14/15. Somewhere in the range of 5-10 unless my memory is completely failing. Which is possible. 

Nina's in general have clippers every year too. I don't think there's been a lack since 2010. We've had a hard time getting the northern stream to dig under us the last 2 years though. 

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This tight on the coast should be a decent hit for many and on the board for many more ...

If this is reality \/ ....come Sunday morning I'm very confident  precip will be fairly far west and frozen . Fun tracking ahead . Lows in this spot have thrown good precip back here through the years .

 

PhotoPictureResizer_191126_172507358_crop_1413x1992.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We had quite a few clipper type systems in 13/14 and 14/15. Somewhere in the range of 5-10 unless my memory is completely failing. Which is possible. 

Nina's in general have clippers every year too. I don't think there's been a lack since 2010. We've had a hard time getting the northern stream to dig under us the last 2 years though. 

Yeah I miss a good clipper. They can be fun, are pretty simple, but can be a challenge to get one to  track to our south. Been few and far between in recent winters. If this winter ends up being ENSO neutral and EPO ridge dominant we could see a legit clipper or 2 track underneath with some decent coastal enhancement.

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