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Chicago Storm

Nov. 10-11th snow event thing

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Apparently DVN isn't too impressed lol.  

While the lift will occur in a good thermal area for dendritic
growth, the forcing looks to be rather weak, progressing southward
at a good clip, and interacting with limited moisture. This
system is still coming together over the east Pacific and northern
Canada, resulting in minor differences in critical features and
QPF fields in the models. For now, it looks like a widespread
dusting to 1 inch, with higher amounts setting up along the
eastern reaches of the I-80 corridor in IL. Current timing has the
measurable snow winding down in this area before sunrise and by
mid morning across the far south.

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Whoever has access to such detailed euro maps, any expansion to show Michigan would be much appreciated.

particularly 11/12z Euro and/or 11/18z Euro Kuchera snowfall (as long as we're asking, lol)

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31 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

particularly 11/12z Euro and/or 11/18z Euro Kuchera snowfall (as long as we're asking, lol)

Its .4 widespread for 12z and almost/past .5 on 18z liquid equivalent. Some places pushing over 6" across southern MI.

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Here's a 3 km NAM forecast sounding from the lake enhanced band.  A ton of omega.  Not the greatest colocation of that lift within the DGZ but a good amount does get into that DGZ and I suspect it will be ripping fatties at 1-2" per hour in that band at maturity.

777212882_2019111000_NAMNST_035_42.4-87.49_severe_ml.thumb.png.716a4b7614ec13f717414bfe9f77e7a3.png

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a 3 km NAM forecast sounding from the lake enhanced band.  A ton of omega.  Not the greatest colocation of that lift within the DGZ but a good amount does get into that DGZ and I suspect it will be ripping fatties at 1-2" per hour in that band at maturity.

777212882_2019111000_NAMNST_035_42.4-87.49_severe_ml.thumb.png.716a4b7614ec13f717414bfe9f77e7a3.png

Both NAMs have some wild enhancement/lake effect off of Lake Huron out this way. Don't think I have ever seen anything like that before, at least not in recent memory.

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I see no reason not to go full Euro/RGEM at this point given the American guidance performance.

Pretty prolonged period of light to briefly moderate fgen snow Sunday night into Monday morning from IA to northern IL/southern WI and southern MI, followed by a nice ana-frontal snow shield that expands/intensifies from west to east Monday into Monday night as the 500mb vort and right-entrance quadrant of the upper level jet streak swing through.  Soundings don't look perfect for high ratios but they will be more than 10:1 by late Sunday night and Monday as colder air pours in.  Don't see why there won't be 2-4" of snow from parts of IA east, and probably more like 3-6" for northern IL and southern MI.  The NAM is still trending towards a slightly sharper shortwave with higher heights ahead of it so it will likely move the northern edge north towards the Euro and RGEM in MI.

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Shaping up to be a nice advisory type snow for a decent chunk of real estate... and the more borderline areas that haven't really had snow yet will probably get one.  

Still have about 50% or so leaf coverage on my block.  I am figuring on the first 2-3" being of the denser/wetter variety before it gets fluffier toward the end.  Lost less leaves than I would've thought on Halloween but I suspect the trees may be a little more willing to part with them this time. 

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50 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Looks like another I-70 / I-71 battleground here in Ohio until it becomes all snow.

I swear some cosmic engineer laid I-70 out right along the midwest storm track because 40 was to far south lol.  The American models have trended to some screw holes along the I-70 corridor but the others are colder.  Experience says screw holes but with this anomalous pattern I'd lean across the pond. 

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