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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The Euro is, well, nuts.  There is a 100 mph 850 mb max (actually 105 mph at one point) as the system maxes out at 980 mb in eastern IN.  The wind gust maps spit out 80-90 mph gusts on the back side as a result.  

Odds of happening are somewhere between impossible and yeah right.  

Perhaps, but how often do you get to even see such wx model details in this corner of the world? Let alone by the Euro. GFS & NAM typically over blow scenarios left and right as we know. 

I smell a non-bust..

OH BBs.JPG

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36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Where'd everybody go? :ph34r:

The Let's Talk Winter thread should have something to say about the weekend system.

nam3km_asnow_ncus_44.png

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Probably want less longitudinal distance between the Canadian low and the system emerging into the Plains if you want a farther south track.  Compare where these features were on yesterday's 12z GFS and now.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90_trend.thumb.gif.b402a55f7ef15322acd8c276cd397c54.gif

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19 minutes ago, Stebo said:

All the interesting shit evaporated, so did everyone.

I'm getting this weird feeling that things are shaping up exactly like last year.  It's almost a Deja Vu feeling.    Ripping pacific jet, signs of Strong El nino, etc....

Many Winter Forecasts are identical to last year at this time. .....Anyone else getting that feeling?  

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1EE0E369-C177-4F36-84C0-85843093E7D5.thumb.png.c1624b8d23133a717abf1282a28034d1.png

 

29F09F70-4F9B-4DAE-821D-5589EFF32F37.thumb.png.1f3c8b0b710474066c55f7c0e1bc23b4.png

Even if the op runs aren’t as exciting with individual threats right now, I’d still role the dice with this pattern with an active jet out of the southwest and a -EPO that gradually pushes the baroclinic zone south.  It’s not perfect but should work for someone eventually, and it will take a while for above normal temperatures to return. 

 

Also,

1. Someone should see snow in Ohio tomorrow even if it’s not over Angry’s head (might be a little to the east/northeast of him) 

2. Last winter was better than average for a majority of the sub, so a repeat wouldn’t be the worst, but the pattern should feature more blocking this winter so those on the southern and eastern fringes that didn’t do as well as everyone else last winter may make up for it this year. Most places are already off to a decent start with no signs of any prolonged snowless/warm patterns through mid-December. 

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The concern I have with that mean is that it might be too far east for most here with the trough axis. I guess we will see but I don't want to jump into a nor'Easter bonanza while we shut down.

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"-epo" is artifact of the large displacement of the polar jet from the -nao. The ejection point on the displaced trough makes the "-epo" a temporary measure. You need better support upstream and pv displacement back into NA for something more firm.

Long range models are essentially devoid of ability here because of the bias of moving s/w's far too fast. That thing may twirl over the southwest longer than the models can stay patient.

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29 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The concern I have with that mean is that it might be too far east for most here with the trough axis. I guess we will see but I don't want to jump into a nor'Easter bonanza while we shut down.

I think it's always a concern in a progression like this that the snow threats will sort of skip over.  Locally I am not expecting much for the next week or two (would love to be wrong about that).  2 snows have my seasonal total at 3.5"... above average to date but it feels a little underwhelming compared to what other areas in the region have received.  I have to keep reminding myself that we aren't even into December yet.

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It's looking like a strong low will track through southeast Iowa on Tuesday.  My area should see mostly rain with a bit of snow on the backside.  Northern Iowa ene-ward could get a nice thump.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

00z Euro ... and the other models are very similar.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

That gradient on the south side there could be interesting. I might get 2 inches while Portage gets 8.

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22 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I'm getting this weird feeling that things are shaping up exactly like last year.  It's almost a Deja Vu feeling.    Ripping pacific jet, signs of Strong El nino, etc....

Many Winter Forecasts are identical to last year at this time. .....Anyone else getting that feeling?  

 I'm not seeing any signs of a strong El nino? I do know the Winter forecasts are very good this year, I remember they were pretty good last year but I don't remember the details. I usually forget what the Winter forecasts were once the Winter actually happens, that's usually just an appetizer to tide me over lol.  All I know is the November 11th snowstorm here far exceeded all expectations and any model runs, so that's an excellent sign to me. Once a storm has happened, we kind of forget the QPF forecasts that we were dissecting before the storm happened. Plus ratios are never set in stone. The November 11th snowstorm dropped 8.8" of snow in my backyard, even more in other areas, but the important thing is the liquid equivalent was 0.90" in my rain gauge. The forecast was 3-5" (which I thought was low, but I was expecting 4-6") and the HIGHEST model run was 0.75" of QPF.

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9 hours ago, Stebo said:

The concern I have with that mean is that it might be too far east for most here with the trough axis. I guess we will see but I don't want to jump into a nor'Easter bonanza while we shut down.

 I don't either, but last Winter was a very sucky Winter for the East Coast while the Western Midwest scored time and time again. We are in a good spot because if we arent in the jackpot zone, we can usually get fringed by scraps of the best stuff whether the goods are setting up to the West or the East, but of course ideally we want some of those Winter forecast to Pan out that had the storm track as the Southeast Michigan special

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9 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

That gradient on the south side there could be interesting. I might get 2 inches while Portage gets 8.

I'll take that...would rather not have to deal with heavy snow for my planned Thanksgiving drive to Kenosha.

Also, it always feels uber weird getting missed to the SOUTH in early/late winter season snow events...looks like that might be the case for the Twin Cities area again.

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12 hours ago, Stebo said:

The concern I have with that mean is that it might be too far east for most here with the trough axis. I guess we will see but I don't want to jump into a nor'Easter bonanza while we shut down.

I think there’d be a window before the trough settles in for some sort of snow and then during the second week of December as it starts warming up.  It’s not optimal and yeah that mean would be too suppressive for a time, but I think it boils down to a 10-14 day period of below average temperatures with a somewhat active southern stream...it may not work out but I think enough ingredients are there for opportunities. 

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