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October Coastal - Big Rain Potential


dendrite
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Was hoping at this point to see guidance —in general—begin to show more significant deepening. Guidance continues to have mostly Nor Easter type pressure falls (considering the lack of baroclincity) despite early October climo near the Gulf Stream and merging with tropical disturbance to its southwest. I suspect the sub tropical nature of this system will lead to some significant surprises until/unless guidance begins to catch onto this reality. 

Regardless, the main takeaway is there is no mechanism to drive the system overhead. If this is going to be a significant event it will be via significant pressure falls, enhancing the gradient, NOT a closer pass to the coast.

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Not withstanding Scott's EPS statement ...

The Euro's isentropic layout doesn't look hugely wet much N of S zones...  Probably a big mist and drizzle shields S of the Pike with bands SE CT/RI CC Islands..  

Personally I still think it is possible this all is overwrought but...given that we are inside the wheel house, I'd put money down on a system - just less clear exactly what the impact is going to be.  

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