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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nothing alarming about the 12z EPS, unless you are looking for unseasonably warm weather.

I’m not looking for unseasonable warmth.  

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From what I can see from the EPS at h5 it looks like Greenland area looks good with high pressure.  The trough is in the middle of CONUS...that’s at 240.  All I can see

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

From what I can see from the EPS at h5 it looks like Greenland area looks good with high pressure.  The trough is in the middle of CONUS...that’s at 240.  All I can see

Shifts into the east as we move through the extended. Haven't really digested what it shows but nothing is throwing up red flags on a quick glance. 

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Shifts into the east as we move through the extended. Haven't really digested what it shows but nothing is throwing up red flags on a quick glance. 

The final chapter of this winter story has not been written.  Safe travels back from AZ. 

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

That guy Webb is all over the other forum and he is certainly on the warm train.

He thinks 1 run is a trend.

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18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

He thinks 1 run is a trend.

Eric webb? No. He's been posting about a warm signal for like a week on Twitter. He isn't living and dying on one model run. 

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4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. Seasonal guidance has been rock steady at Dec featuring a mostly to exceptionally bad long wave pattern. If we kick off Dec with a non shutout or even a good winter wx pattern then it's a pretty big win all things considered

Way late to the party but my thoughts are that I’m not getting bent about marginal flaws in long range runs.   The seasonal guidance is crap mostly because of the worst look up top I’ve ever seen all winter. So anything that looks ok in that regard is a win right now imo. We’re still weeks away from legit high probability tracking season anyways so sweating specific flaws now  is silly. 

Now if we start to see a big blue ball settle over the entire arctic circle with nothing but a ring of red around the mid latitudes ala the seasonals then I will begin to edit my expectations. 

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32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Eric webb? No. He's been posting about a warm signal for like a week on Twitter. He isn't living and dying on one model run. 

Yes but he posted one run of a model as it confirmed his call. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but he posted one run of a model as it confirmed his call. 

From what I have seen(and I don't go out of my way to read any of these dudes on twitter) he never wastes any time when it comes to sounding the bells for a "bad" pattern.

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33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

From what I have seen(and I don't go out of my way to read any of these dudes on twitter) he never wastes any time when it comes to sounding the bells for a "bad" pattern.

Also it appears he's only looking for anything warm. It's plainly obvious and not worth defending 

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11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Also it appears he's only looking for anything warm. It's plainly obvious and not worth defending 

Yea, when a long lead forecast works out the internet warriors make sure they yell it from the tallest mountain day after day. When they bust they slink away and go radio silent or spend days saying how the  "forecast was correct BUT....". Lol. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Last I checked it was November 17....and still autumn.

Yes exactly. I hadn’t thought of it from that angle but makes total sense. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Way late to the party but my thoughts are that I’m not getting bent about marginal flaws in long range runs.   The seasonal guidance is crap mostly because of the worst look up top I’ve ever seen all winter. So anything that looks ok in that regard is a win right now imo. We’re still weeks away from legit high probability tracking season anyways so sweating specific flaws now  is silly. 

Now if we start to see a big blue ball settle over the entire arctic circle with nothing but a ring of red around the mid latitudes ala the seasonals then I will begin to edit my expectations. 

We still pretty much still have no idea how Dec is going to unfold let along met winter. Doesn't matter if it's 80 degress this week or if we get a foot of snow.

Dec will be here soon enough. I just want to have at least 1 decent event in Dec. A simple 3-5" event in Dec. Statistically that would put this year in like the top 20%. Lol. If Dec sucks it will be just like the other 80% of sucky Decs

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Also it appears he's only looking for anything warm. It's plainly obvious and not worth defending 

Okay. But it was plainly clear he didn't make a forecast on one model run. That's all I was saying. 

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25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Gonna be a long winter if people are getting worked up on November 17.

 A little digital snow and some mid winter lows got the game started early this year. DCA often doesn't hit freezing until Dec. Lol

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

We still pretty much still have no idea how Dec is going to unfold let along met winter. Doesn't matter if it's 80 degress this week or if we get a foot of snow.

Dec will be here soon enough. I just want to have at least 1 decent event in Dec. A simple 3-5" event in Dec. Statistically that would put this year in like the top 20%. Lol. If Dec sucks it will be just like the other 80% of sucky Decs

With the way the last decade of Decembers have gone (outside of 2009 and 2013 maybe), the goal should be for 1-2 minor accumulating snow events and a monthly departure less than 3F above normal.  And maybe not above 60F within 3 days either side of Xmas.  

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4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

That guy Webb is all over the other forum and he is certainly on the warm train.

He is getting way too much play both good and bad imo.  Yea he skews warm and maybe his location and frustration is why. That’s a rational conclusion by cape.  And I do think his posting of one gefs run as validation was questionable but I’ve had plenty of dumb posts myself.  But he often makes astute posts. He isn’t a hack imo. But he also busts plenty too. Everyone does. Even the absolute best.  I’m not saying we shouldn’t post things, but sometimes we go off on a tangent over one persons opinion. It’s good to note it and track what knowledgeable people think but I’m not getting too invested in one persons long range crusade. At the same time I’m not spending effort blasting him repeatedly either. Maybe he is right. Maybe not. We will find out. 

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea he skews warm

Right now ( I mean this past decade) reality is skewing warm.  I think that frustrates most people on this forum, which makes us quick to lash out.  I know I constantly have to fight against a natural desire to pay attention when someone predicts "COLD COLD", but dismiss those saying "WARM, WARM" as idiots.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Right now ( I mean this past decade) reality is skewing warm.  I think that frustrates most people on this forum, which makes us quick to lash out.  I know I constantly have to fight against a natural desire to pay attention when someone predicts "COLD COLD", but dismiss those saying "WARM, WARM" as idiots.

I won’t name names because there is nothing wrong with this, but some of the seasonal forecasters with the higher scores tend to go chalk and predict what climo says is likely most of the time. Fact is our current climo says we have a below avg snow winter 65-70% of the time.  Take non nino years (yea mod nino is the winner but even weak and strong ones up the chances of a + climo year some) and the chances are like 90% we go below climo.  In the last 25 non nino winters going back to 1984...only 2 have been +climo. 1996 and 2014. 

So basically if you predicted above avg snow every nino and below to avg every other winter you will have had a 84% verification score in the last 37 years.  I could do that. Anyone could do that. But 1996 and 2014 did happen. And climo runs in cycles and you never know when it will shift. So just going climo every year you will miss the anomalies. It’s also no fun and I am in this for run. If my job depended on it I probably would go climo and pimp my great success rate.  

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I won’t name names because there is nothing wrong with this, but some of the seasonal forecasters with the higher scores tend to go chalk and predict what climo says is likely most of the time. Fact is our current climo says we have a below avg snow winter 65-70% of the time.  Take non nino years (yea mod nino is the winner but even weak and strong ones up the chances of a + climo year some) and the chances are like 90% we go below climo.  In the last 25 non nino winters going back to 1984...only 2 have been +climo. 1996 and 2014. 

So basically if you predicted above avg snow every nino and below to avg every other winter you will have had a 84% verification score in the last 37 years.  I could do that. Anyone could do that. But 1996 and 2014 did happen. And climo runs in cycles and you never know when it will shift. So just going climo every year you will miss the anomalies. It’s also no fun and I am in this for run. If my job depended on it I probably would go climo and pimp my great success rate.  

This sounds like textbook advertisement for setting one's expectations based on the median instead of the mean.

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5 hours ago, cbmclean said:

This sounds like textbook advertisement for setting one's expectations based on the median instead of the mean.

I’ve lead that crusade plenty of times during years where the whining about what is really just a typical winter is getting out of hand. But most of the culprits of that whining don’t want to hear it. Probably because they aren’t happy with what a “typical” winter here is (admittedly our median kinda sucks) and that want to be able to whine and complain with righteous indignation 70% of the time as if the universe spit in their eye. 

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Boy this guy Webb is really something else. He is posting at the 33 forum at 3:30 am about the 00z GEFS/EPS being warmer to support his ideas which may or may not be correct but he just has this inherent need to be right and prove everyone else who doesn't support his ideas is wrong. He even seems to get a bit argumentative at times. I mean wow.

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