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Hurricane Agnes

Remnants of former Tropical Storm/Tropical Depression Karen

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34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Andrew was coming in from the east and heading west I believe. But it wasn’t coming from the south, and forecast to bend west like this may, or like Sandy did. 

pretty wild that karen is going to be pulled in by a negatively tilted trough over florida

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5 pm (they went with the 1007 that the recon found and cone is still showing that left turn) -

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 222036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 62.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 62.7 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from
the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday.  On Tuesday, Karen is expected to
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

Quote
000
WTNT42 KNHC 222037
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

The convective structure of Karen has continued to lose organization
this afternoon, with the center becoming exposed to the north and
northwest of the primary convective band.  An Air Force
Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm has found a
well-defined circulation, and flight-level and SFMR winds to
support an intensity of around 30 kt.  The plane, however, has
not fully sampled the storm so the initial intensity remains
35 kt which is between the wind speeds indicated in earlier ASCAT
data and the recent in situ observations.

The upper-level environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain
unfavorable with the global models and SHIPS guidance predicting an
increase in northeasterly shear by Monday.  This is expected to
prevent the storm from strengthening, and Karen may even have
trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status while it moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea.  After the system moves north of Puerto Rico
around midweek, it is forecast to reach more favorable upper-level
conditions, and the NHC intensity forecast again calls for
strengthening later in the forecast period.  The new intensity
forecast, however, is slightly more conservative than the previous
one at days 3-5, and is a little above the latest intensity
consensus (IVCN) model).

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt.  The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged from earlier today.  Karen
should turn northwestward, and then northward during the next day or
so as it begins to respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge
over the western Atlantic.  This motion should bring the center of
Karen over Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. By late in
the forecast period, the dynamical models build a strong
deep-layer ridge over the southeast United States that extends
northeastward over the western Atlantic.  This pattern is likely to
cause Karen to slow its northward progression by days 4 and 5.  The
track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only slight
adjustments to the previous official forecast were required.

Key Messages:
1.  Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.

2.  Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has
been issued.  Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding is possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 12.9N  62.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 13.7N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 14.9N  64.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 16.3N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 18.0N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 21.5N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 24.3N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 26.0N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

204255_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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18z GFS has it totally dissipating around Puerto Rico. It'll be interesting to see if it can keep itself together until then. 

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8 pm update (no changes) -

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 222336
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
800 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 63.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 63.0 West. Karen is
moving generally toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A
turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from
the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday.  On Tuesday, Karen is expected to
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east of the center.  The International Airport on
Grenada recently reported sustained winds of 30 mph (48 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area for the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

233646_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Karen has demanded to see the manager of the atmosphere because all the shear is messing up her hair.

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11 pm / 2 am updates -

Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 63.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WNW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.  Additional warnings and watches may be required
for portions of these areas on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A
turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed
by a turn toward the north on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight
through Monday night.  On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3
inches.

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
Quote
763 
WTNT32 KNHC 230540
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.  Additional warnings and watches may be required
for portions of these areas on later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 63.6 West.  Karen is now
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today.  A turn toward the north is
expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight.  On
Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3
inches.

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

054600_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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5 am update (steady) -

Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...DISORGANIZED KAREN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 63.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 63.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today.  A turn toward the north is
expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight.  On
Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly northeast through southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected
in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN
Quote
000
WTNT42 KNHC 230856
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Karen's convective pattern has become quite disheveled looking this
morning due to 20-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. a
narrow band of deep convection has recently reformed in the
southeastern quadrant, but proximity to dry air has been hindering
development and organization of that convection. The initial
intensity has been held at 35 kt until the next reconnaissance
flight later this morning provides new information on the strength
of the cyclone. However, I would not be surprised if Karen has
weakened to a tropical depression based on the lack of significant
convection.

The initial motion is now 320/07 kt. The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement that Karen should continue a northwestward
motion today toward a break in the subtropical ridge, followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday that would take the center of the
cyclone near or over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in
about 36 hours. Karen is forecast to emerge over the southwestern
Atlantic near 48 hours and then slow down significantly and possibly
even stall or loop several hundred nmi north of Puerto Rico on days
4 and 5 as a large ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
close to the average of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA,
and FSSE.

The upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for the
next 24 hours or so, and I would not be surprised if Karen weakens
to a tropical depression during that time. By 36 hours and beyond,
however, upper-level winds are expected to become much less hostile,
allowing some modest strengthening to occur. By days 4 and 5, Karen
is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which
should allow for more significant intensification to occur. The new
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and
follows the trend of the various intensity consensus models.

Key Messages:

1.  Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern
Windward Islands through tonight.

2.  Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in
effect.  Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding are possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 13.6N  63.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.5N  64.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 16.1N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 18.0N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 20.1N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 24.6N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 26.5N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 27.0N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

085738_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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It'll be interesting to see how fast this strengthens once the environment allows strengthening to begin.  Dorian, Humberto, and Jerry all strengthened much quicker than the NHC predicted once their environments started to improve.

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Still a long way to go and not entirely convinced Karen doesn't dissipate in such hostile northeasterly mid-to-upper level flow. If Karen makes it north of PR intact though, the building ECONUS ridge is quite a humdinger. Obviously Bahamas and Florida would be the immediate concern based on ECMWF op trend and EPS. The central and eastern GOM heat potential is high for a fast moving west to wnw tracking hurricane regardless of the Gulf Loop. Again, very early and too much uncertainty at this point, but the potential is eye-opening.

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8 am interim (holding steady) -

Quote
487 
WTNT32 KNHC 231151
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL     AL122019
800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN... 


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 64.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions 
are expected somewhere within the warning area, within the next 
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 64.4 West. Karen is 
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this 
general motion is forecast to continue today.  A turn toward the 
north is expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center 
of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through 
tonight.  On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over 
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 
km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm 
totals 8 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

120155_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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9 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Seems the models are generally Karen to a point where it stalls and turns, although I noticed the Ukie has it make the turn further north than the Euro or GFS.  Euro gif below.

 

euro-ensembles-0z-AL12_2019092300_ECENS-09232019.png

Some of the tropical models also turn Karen further north.

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11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23
Location: 14.9°N 64.8°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Uh, did they mess up the center? Or is Karen just that disorganized?84921958078a3906519e017b06c2cbec.jpg

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

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Still a long way to go and not entirely convinced Karen doesn't dissipate in such hostile northeasterly mid-to-upper level flow. If Karen makes it north of PR intact though, the building ECONUS ridge is quite a humdinger. Obviously Bahamas and Florida would be the immediate concern based on ECMWF op trend and EPS. The central and eastern GOM heat potential is high for a fast moving west to wnw tracking hurricane regardless of the Gulf Loop. Again, very early and too much uncertainty at this point, but the potential is eye-opening.


The northern gulf is bath water! 85+ in almost all areas. Pensacola & Mobile are in line to shatter warm records for September. Mobile has or is forecast to have highs in the 90’s every day but one (89). It was warm last year before Michael but it’s been down right hot this September! Might not be relevant to Karen but if a system affects us it will definitely have ample fuel in the form of water temps.


.

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Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is possible that a center reformation will occur near the new convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical cyclone for now.

The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of 30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already.

Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall over those areas. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the intensity forecast is low.

The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt. Despite the overall lack of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Tropical Storm Jerry to its north. After 72 hours, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and western Atlantic which should slow Karen's northward progress and could cause the system to essentially stall over the western Atlantic by the end of the period. The new NHC track forecast is again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus aids through 96 h. At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4 and 5 is quite low.

Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Karen's status as a tropical cyclone, this system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.7N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 21.9N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 27.0N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown


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11 am update (storm motion has sped up but system strength/winds still the same) -

Quote
085 
WTNT32 KNHC 231441
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.8 West.  Karen is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today.  A turn toward the
north is expected by Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday
morning.  Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north
of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by
Tuesday morning.

Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quote
000
WTNT42 KNHC 231441
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level
swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen
has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation.  It is
possible that a center reformation will occur near the new
convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical
cyclone for now.  The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of
30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still
supports an initial intensity of 35 kt.  Given the current structure
of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should
remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength
is anticipated during that time.  It is also possible that Karen
could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already.
Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it
passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely
to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall
over those areas.  After that time, upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast
calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable
intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the
intensity forecast is low.

The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt.  Despite the overall lack
of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good
agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into
a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by
Tropical Storm Jerry to its north.  After 72 hours, a deep-layer
ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and
western Atlantic which should slow Karen's northward progress and
could cause the system to essentially stall over the western
Atlantic by the end of the period.  The new NHC track forecast is
again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus
aids through 96 h.  At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the
consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position
shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time
is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.

Key Messages:

1.  Regardless of Karen's status as a tropical cyclone, this system
is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall,
flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is
in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 14.9N  64.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 16.0N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 17.7N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 19.6N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 21.9N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 25.6N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 27.0N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 27.0N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

144236_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:


11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23
Location: 14.9°N 64.8°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Uh, did they mess up the center? Or is Karen just that disorganized?84921958078a3906519e017b06c2cbec.jpg

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

Highly disorganized. 

Looks like recon heading SW atm. They probably going to make another attempt at the center. 

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11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:


11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23
Location: 14.9°N 64.8°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Uh, did they mess up the center? Or is Karen just that disorganized?84921958078a3906519e017b06c2cbec.jpg

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

That flight pattern is almost like what I've seen when they are doing perimeter measurements.  They are probably still trying to get a center for it in the middle of the convection.

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