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Hurricane Agnes

Remnants of former Tropical Storm/Tropical Depression Karen

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Here we go -

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 220857
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 60.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Trinidad and Tobago. The Trinidad and Tobago
Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other
portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Karen.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm
Karen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.2 West.
Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward
the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn
toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move
across the Windward Islands this afternoon and tonight, and emerge
over the southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.  Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of
37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those
islands within the warning area later this morning and afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quote
000
WTNT42 KNHC 220900
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Scatterometer surface wind data and observations from the Windward
Islands indicate that the low pressure system just east of Tobago
has become better defined. Infrared and microwave satellite imagery
also show that deep convection has increased and has become better
organized around the center. Barbados recently reported a 10-minute
wind of 32 kt gusting to 39 kt, and the earlier scatterometer data
showed a large field of 30-32 kt winds in the eastern semicircle.
Based on these data, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Karen. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern
Windward Islands as a result.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. The latest
NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Karen moving
northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn toward the north
into a break in the ridge currently located over the northern
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In the 72-96 hour period, Karen is
forecast to slow down and possibly even stall and turn westward on
day 5 as another large ridge moves eastward across the southeastern
United States and builds to the north of the cyclone. The official
track forecast lies close to the tightly packed consensus track
models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX.

Little, if any, change in intensity is expected for the next 48
hours due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the
upper-level flow is expected to be difluent, which should help Karen
maintain its current intensity despite the otherwise unfavorable
shear conditions. By 72 hours and beyond, Karen is forecast to move
underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should result in a
significant decrease in the shear and also enhance the upper-level
outflow, allowing for some strengthening to occur. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows a blend of the the intensity consensus
models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS model.

A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands later today, and Tropical Storm Warnings may be
issued for other areas in the Windward Islands later this morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 11.9N  60.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 12.5N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 13.4N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 14.7N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 16.1N  65.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 19.9N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 23.4N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 25.6N  65.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quote
000
WTNT22 KNHC 220857
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  60.2W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  60.2W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  59.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N  61.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.4N  63.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N  64.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.1N  65.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.9N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N  65.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.6N  65.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  60.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

UPDATE-

248 
WTNT62 KNHC 220908
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
510 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Vincent and the Grenadines.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

090523_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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This’ll be an interesting one to watch. 

Anomalous ridging can do crazy things. After a rough start to the season, guidance has become pretty good at signaling TC genesis potential. I was tracking this area of interest since Tuesday lol. 

Despite the guidance, still too early to say what the eventual track will be. Fortunately, shear is pretty strong and looks to keep this in check as it passes near PR. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

This’ll be an interesting one to watch. 

Anomalous ridging can do crazy things. After a rough start to the season, guidance has become pretty good at signaling TC genesis potential. I was tracking this area of interest since Tuesday lol. 

Despite the guidance, still too early to say what the eventual track will be. Fortunately, shear is pretty strong and looks to keep this in check as it passes near PR. 

I'm just trying to find any sort of circulation in it! :huh::D

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I'm just trying to find any sort of circulation in it! :huh::D

Ha, well they found it via surface obs so it’s there. Recon found a sharp wave yesterday with 35mph winds so I’m not surprised it closed off. I didn’t expect recon to sample 99L but it proved valuable. 

Karen formed with a lot of shear obliterating some of those cloud tops—it must be the peak of the season :) 

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ha, well they found it via surface obs so it’s there. Recon found a sharp wave yesterday with 35mph winds so I’m not surprised it closed off. I didn’t expect recon to sample 99L but it proved valuable. 

Karen formed with a lot of shear obliterating some of those cloud tops—it must be the peak of the season :) 

They had the recon in there scheduled for yesterday ("Windward Islands" recon) and will be in there later this morning and this afternoon -

Quote
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0220 PM EDT FRI 20 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-115 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE JERRY
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
       A. 22/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0910A JERRY
       C. 22/1000Z
       D. 23.6N 68.0W
       E. 22/1130Z TO 22/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. SUSPECT AREA (SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
       A. 21/1800Z                   A. 22/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA2 01DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0112A CYCLONE
       C. 21/1430Z                   C. 22/0915Z
       D. 10.0N 56.0W                D. 11.5N 60.0W
       E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2130Z       E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Quote
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211715
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EDT SAT 21 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-116

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM JERRY
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
       A. 22/2330Z                   A. 23/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 1010A JERRY          B. AFXXX 1110A JERRY
       C. 22/1900Z                   C. 23/0845Z
       D. 26.4N 67.0W                D. 27.8N 67.1W
       E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0230Z       E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74
       A. 22/1800Z                   A. 23/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0312A CYCLONE
       C. 22/1630Z                   C. 23/1015Z
       D. 12.8N 62.8W                D. 14.2N 65.3W
       E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2230Z       E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

 

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Also, I’m glad I woke up and checked my phone. You’ll do a great job updating the thread subtitle and I’ll get some comments in before this place gets polluted with garbage posts. 

This probably isn’t worth a whole hell of a lot this early in the lifecycle of Karen, but cutting through the noise the EPS does show significant early support for Karen getting trapped under very strong ridging. Where the individual members landfall is irrelevant. 

98425294.gif?0.6053905782993112

Now perhaps this changes and that escape route north of PR stays open, or we get a currently unidentified trough to weaken the ridge and kick this a la Dorian, but this is the kind of ridging we see that can create bona fide LR interest. 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Also, I’m glad I woke up and checked my phone. You’ll do a great job updating the thread subtitle and I’ll get some comments in before this place gets polluted with garbage posts. 

This probably isn’t worth a whole hell of a lot this early in the lifecycle of Karen, but cutting through the noise the EPS does show significant early support for Karen getting trapped under very strong ridging. Where the individual members landfall is irrelevant. 

98425294.gif?0.6053905782993112

Now perhaps this changes and that escape route north of PR stays open, or we get a currently unidentified trough to weaken the ridge and kick this a la Dorian, but this is the kind of ridging we see that can create bona fide LR interest. 

I am an early riser so if you see me here late at night, my mind is normally blown.  :P  I am surprised this one kicked off before the one coming off the African coast that may end up named today (or perhaps tomorrow) as Lorenzo.  Am watching that one too because it has a clear path to intensify although it may run into the same types of fish-storm conditions that Gabrielle experienced.

Oddly enough, Jerry, as wacked-out as it is, may help clear the way a bit for Karen.

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Karen seems to be in a “good” spot because it’s far enough south to not get pulled into the void by the weakness (though it gets pretty far north on much of the reliable guidance currently) but it gets far enough west to eventually get under the influence of the developing ridge near the E CONUS. 

Of course, there are likely subtle things that’ll get picked up and influence the track forecast over time. We haven’t even gotten to intensity yet. We’re going to be speculating a lot in the next few days.

I want to see where we stand on track and intensity possibilities once Karen clears the Greater Antilles midweek.

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8 am update (intermediate) -

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 221153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
800 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN PASSING JUST NORTH OF TOBAGO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 60.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other
portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Karen.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.9 West.  Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move across
the Windward Islands today, and emerge over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those
islands within the warning area this morning and afternoon, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

115333_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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0z eps has the west bend into Florida. 

It's going to really interesting what happens with this storm and when or if the west bend occurs.

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11 am (holding steady) -

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 221454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...KAREN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GRENADA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then
across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday.  On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily in squalls to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon or evening.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quote
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Radar and satellite imagery shows that convection associated with
Karen has lost some organization since advisories were initiated
early this morning.  However, surface observations and a very
recently arriving ASCAT data show that the circulation is
well-defined, and is currently passing through the southern Windward
Islands.  Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry
mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant
strengthening is expected through 48 hours.  In fact, the system may
have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global
models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over
the system on Monday.  Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico,
the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the
structure of the system at that time.  At this time, the long range
intensity forecast is quite uncertain.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The track guidance is in
good agreement on Karen turning northwestward, and then northward
around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge during the
next day or two.  A northward motion should continue into mid-week
as a weakness in the ridge remains over the western Atlantic.
After that time, models suggest that another ridge will begin to
build over the southeastern U.S. and far western Atlantic which may
cause Karen to slow down by the end of the forecast period.  The
updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory
and lies near the consensus models.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands.

Key Messages:
1.  Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.

2.  Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has
been issued.  Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding is possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 12.5N  61.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 13.1N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 14.2N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 15.4N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 16.9N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 20.7N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 23.4N  65.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 25.3N  65.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

 

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45 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

0z eps has the west bend into Florida. 

It's going to really interesting what happens with this storm and when or if the west bend occurs.

It's kinda amazing how often that doesn't happen--east coast of Florida has been very fortunate! (There's like an invisible forcefield over that coast, lol) What's the last one that did? Andrew?

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's kinda amazing how often that doesn't happen--east coast of Florida has been very fortunate! (There's like an invisible forcefield over that coast, lol) What's the last one that did? Andrew?

Well the last west bend was Sandy but for Florida, I'm not sure.  It might have been Andrew.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Well the last west bend was Sandy but for Florida, I'm not sure.  It might have been Andrew.

Ah so Sandy actually did bend far enough to actually make landfall there? (I'm in the mid-atl but I think it was just north of me)

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14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's kinda amazing how often that doesn't happen--east coast of Florida has been very fortunate! (There's like an invisible forcefield over that coast, lol) What's the last one that did? Andrew?

Ivan looped de loop and hit FL from the east after coming back out into the ocean but Jeanne hit it directly.  In fact, it seems some of the ensembles are sortof mimicking that Jeanne path.  ETA - Frances hit from that side too - all 3 of those were in 2004.

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah so Sandy actually did bend far enough to actually make landfall there? (I'm in the mid-atl but I think it was just north of me)

 

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30 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Ivan looped de loop and hit FL from the east after coming back out into the ocean but Jeanne hit it directly.  In fact, it seems some of the ensembles are sortof mimicking that Jeanne path.  ETA - Frances hit from that side too - all 3 of those were in 2004.

Katrina hit the east coast of Fl. also.  Currently the environment is pretty hostile in the far eastern Carib (as usual), but as you move west it gets much more favorable.  Karen has some really good divergence overhead currently, much more than Jerry ever had.  The Euro has been doing some tricky things with Karen the last day or 2 as was posted in the hurricane season thread.  There is strong model consensus of ridging to the north building in in 3-5 days, strong enough to perhaps even push Karen back to the SW.  We will see where she's at and what her attitude is when and if that truly happens.  We are a week away from Oct.  and if I still lived on the West coast of Fl. I would really be keeping my on this one.  Fantasy land guidance is showing a nice path into west Fl. if something can slip into the SW/S GOM.

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Just now, Jackstraw said:

Katrina hit the east coast of Fl. also.  Currently the environment is pretty hostile in the far eastern Carib (as usual), but as you move west it gets much more favorable.  Karen has some really good divergence overhead currently, much more than Jerry ever had.  The Euro has been doing some tricky things with Karen the last day or 2 as was posted in the hurricane season thread.  There is strong model consensus of ridging to the north building in in 3-5 days, strong enough to perhaps even push Karen back to the SW.  We will see where she's at and what her attitude is when and if that truly happens.  We are a week away from Oct.  and if I still lived on the West coast of Fl. I would really be keeping my on this one.  Fantasy land guidance is showing a nice path into west Fl. if something can slip into the SW/S GOM.

AF307 is getting ready to take off and go in there so it will be good to get some more data on it.

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2 pm update -

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 221748
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
200 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...GUSTY WINDS AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 62.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM N OF GRENADA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 62.3 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then
across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday.  On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily in squalls to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon or evening.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

174849_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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12z Euro has an Andrew track through s FL to LA, but it remains fairly weak the entire time.  These west turners often have favorable conditions to strengthen, though.  It doesn't turn west for five days, assuming it survives, so there's nothing to be too concerned with, yet.

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's kinda amazing how often that doesn't happen--east coast of Florida has been very fortunate! (There's like an invisible forcefield over that coast, lol) What's the last one that did? Andrew?

Andrew was coming in from the east and heading west I believe. But it wasn’t coming from the south, and forecast to bend west like this may, or like Sandy did. 

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16 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Naturally we get a TS and the first thing that comes up is Sandy comparisons.

Actually the Sandy reference was just in response to my comment about hurricanes bending west, lol

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