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Hurricane Agnes

Remnants of former Tropical Storm/Tropical Depression Karen

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6z GFS basically makes Karen a very weak TC that meanders into the Bahamas... Day 5 to Day 7 its barely there and then looks to degenerate into an open wave just before it moves into S FL on Day 8

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Ya....I don't think any modeling at this stage is even remotely correct.  Too many moving parts and potential interactions at this juncture.  This can go anywhere at this point, and who really knows what kind of intensity it could be when it gets into range of where we even have an idea of where it may go.....????  Every and All options are on the table at this point.

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looking at the vis loops, there does appear to be a circulation under that convection -

 

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.truecolor.20190923.154527-1151-truecolor-09232019.gif

Might be earth relative. Would explain why it looks closed on visible but not on recon. With 0kt flow on the southern side of the low essentially "closing" it off as it moves NW

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Just now, hlcater said:

Might be earth relative. Would explain why it looks closed on visible but not on recon. With 0kt flow on the southern side of the low essentially "closing" it off as it moves NW

Yeah I don't think it is really closed but it is slowly spinning.  Still learning how to read these types of ops (from here - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml)-

Quote
381 
URNT15 KNHC 231558
AF307 0312A KAREN              HDOB 37 20190923
154900 1402N 06601W 9807 00254 0095 +248 +241 279007 007 017 000 00
154930 1401N 06559W 9807 00256 0096 +244 +243 269009 010 017 000 05
155000 1402N 06558W 9809 00254 0095 +245 +243 266006 009 /// /// 05
155030 1403N 06558W 9809 00254 0096 +249 +242 272005 006 016 000 00
155100 1405N 06558W 9808 00256 0096 +247 +244 263005 006 022 001 01
155130 1406N 06558W 9806 00258 0098 +250 +242 320004 005 021 002 00
155200 1408N 06558W 9805 00260 0098 +251 +243 332004 005 018 000 00
155230 1409N 06558W 9806 00258 0098 +253 +242 006004 004 017 000 03
155300 1411N 06558W 9807 00258 0098 +255 +239 040004 005 014 000 00
155330 1413N 06558W 9807 00258 0098 +255 +239 044004 005 016 000 03
155400 1414N 06558W 9805 00259 0098 +255 +241 047004 005 015 000 03
155430 1416N 06558W 9809 00257 0099 +253 +243 057003 005 015 000 00
155500 1417N 06558W 9807 00258 0099 +255 +244 057004 005 014 000 00
155530 1419N 06558W 9807 00258 0098 +255 +247 058004 004 014 000 00
155600 1420N 06558W 9809 00257 0098 +255 +243 051004 005 015 000 03
155630 1422N 06558W 9805 00260 0097 +255 +241 043005 005 015 000 00
155700 1423N 06558W 9808 00257 0098 +255 +239 041005 005 015 000 00
155730 1425N 06558W 9806 00258 0098 +255 +240 043005 005 015 000 00
155800 1426N 06558W 9806 00259 0098 +255 +241 056004 005 014 000 00
155830 1428N 06558W 9808 00258 0098 +255 +242 033004 005 014 000 00
$$

 

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12z HWRF looks more realistic this run in that it shows several periods of MCS/MLC redevelopment being sheared off on approach to PR versus organization and intensification to strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane shown in previous runs. That is the most likely scenario. Run is not through but it's kind of pointless with so many unknowns on dissipation, stall or turn, etc. Better to watch globals at that point.

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2 pm update (Karen "barely hanging on") lol -

Quote
777 
WTNT32 KNHC 231757
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 65.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to re in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of Karen in your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of poorly organized Tropical
Storm Karen was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 65.2
West.  Karen is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today.  A
turn toward the north is expected by Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean
Sea today, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the
north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karen could weaken to a tropical depression or degenerate
into an open wave later today or tonight, however, little overall
change in wind speed is expected over the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by
Tuesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

175739_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Euro has whatever is left of Karen ending up farther north and east in a few days compared to earlier runs.  One major change is what's going on with Jerry.  A few days ago Jerry was expected to be a solid hurricane that would quickly pass near Bermuda and get whisked northeast out to sea.  Now, Jerry is badly sheared, much weaker, and much slower.  A much-slower Jerry may tug more on Karen.

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5 pm update - Karen downgraded to a TD -

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 232039
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 65.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h).  A turn toward the north is expected late tonight or early
Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should
continue through Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the center
of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening,
and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late
tonight or Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western
Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late tonight.  Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quote
000
WTNT42 KNHC 232040
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Karen has become increasingly disorganized today.  Visible
satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that there is a
broad low-level circulation, but the aircraft struggled to find a
well-defined center.  Based on the current lack of organization,
the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt.  The
environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain quite hostile,
with dry mid-level air and strong northeasterly shear continuing
overnight.  After Karen moves north of Puerto Rico over the western
Atlantic, it may find itself in a more favorable upper-level
environment, but given the current structure of the cyclone it
should take some time for any potential re-strengthening to occur.
As a result, the long-range intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous advisory and remains of very low confidence.

Karen is moving northwestward or 335/11 kt.  Karen should turn
northward later tonight or early Tuesday toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Jerry.  A
northward to north-northeast motion should then take the storm over
the western Atlantic well to the east of the Bahamas around mid-
week.  After that time, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build
over the southeastern United States and far western Atlantic,
which should cause Karen to slow down and become nearly stationary
at days 4 and 5.  The track guidance has trended toward Karen
gaining more latitude before slowing, and the new NHC track
forecast as been adjusted accordingly.  The latter portion of the
track forecast is still quite uncertain as the dynamical model
guidance and their ensembles still exhibit large spread.

Although Karen in shown to remain a tropical depression as it
passed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the tropical storm
warning is begin maintained since only a small increase in the
wind speed would make Karen a tropical storm again. In addition,
windward facing areas at high elevation on the islands could
experience winds higher than those shown in the official forecast.

Key Messages:

1.  Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.  The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 15.9N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 17.2N  66.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 18.9N  66.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 21.3N  66.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 23.3N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 26.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 27.5N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 27.5N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

204339_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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48 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looks like AF304 is on a run into Karen.  Will be interesting to see if they can find any circulation left.

So far. Recon looks like crap. No west wind 

Possible center location of 1008mb.

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8 pm update (system continues to be weak) -

Quote
137 
WTNT32 KNHC 232339
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...DISORGANIZED KAREN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 65.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 65.7 West.  The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h).  A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a
northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through
Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Karen will
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday
morning and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by early Tuesday.  Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

233958_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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15 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

They were waiting for and then went with the 1008.  I think Karen needs some Jerry mojo! :lol:

Well the popcorn ran out. 

Don't think the popcorn there or Jerry. 

Atm any LLC near the deep convection. South and west of what the models show. Especially over PR.

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1 minute ago, FLweather said:

Well the popcorn ran out. 

Don't think the popcorn there or Jerry. 

Atm any LLC near the deep convection. South and west of what the models show. Especially over PR.

Yeah Karen's convection has woken up a bit now.  Jerry was rockin' and rollin' with the lightning most of the afternoon!

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1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Jerry's the reason Karen is so heavily sheared in part. I thought Jerry was gonna be way past Bermuda by now. What's holding it up?

Models have jerry spinning and spinning  for a while.

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Jerry eats Karen on the Icon.  GFS is thinking about it too. Doesn't look good for Karen surviving if Jerry doesn't get out of the way.

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Looks like Karen has been developing a lot deep convection over the past several hours.  Defiantly looks better organized now then it has fot most of yesterday!!    Latest Recon as of 2am finds Karen just below TS strength with a pressure of 1006mb.   Would expect it to be a TS again with the 5am discussion!!!!!!!!

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11 pm & 2 am updates (as of 2 am, the pressure has dropped a bit) -

Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h).  A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a
northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through
Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Karen will
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by early Tuesday.  Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN
Quote
000
WTNT42 KNHC 240251
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Deep convection associated with Karen has increased during the past
few hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the
south of the center due to north-northeasterly shear.  The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression this
evening, and a combination of the flight-level and SFMR data
indicate that winds are just below tropical-storm-force.  The
aircraft measured a minimum pressure of about 1008 mb.

Karen is currently situated near the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge, and it is forecast to turn northward on Tuesday
as it passes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  After that time,
a northward to north-northeastward motion seems likely as the
cyclone moves into a weakness left behind by Tropical Storm Jerry.
However, the models indicate that the trough will not capture Karen,
and instead the cyclone could come to a stop or drift westward by
the weekend as a ridge builds to the north of the system.  Although
the models agree on the overall scenario, the details are quite
uncertain and there remains a large spread in the guidance at days 4
and 5.  The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right
of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus models.

The environment is still quite hostile around Karen with
north-northeasterly shear of about 20 kt currently impacting
the cyclone.  However, the upper-level wind pattern is expected to
become more favorable during the next few days, and that could give
it an opportunity to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slow increase in winds through the forecast period. This forecast is
similar to the previous one, and lies roughly between the
aggressive SHIPS/LGEM models and the HWRF/HMON models which show
little change in intensity during the next several days.

Key Messages:

1.  Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.  The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 16.1N  65.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 17.5N  66.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 19.6N  66.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 22.0N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 23.9N  65.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 26.8N  64.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 28.0N  64.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 28.0N  66.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 240540
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FINDS KAREN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 65.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 65.7 West.  The
depression is now moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today.  A northward to
north-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday night.  On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over
the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Karen could become a tropical storm again later today.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning.  Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

054433_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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