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Hurricane Agnes

Remnants of former Tropical Storm/Tropical Depression Karen

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3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Yeah, IR impovingc66e684395b2150b6effa7c6069d8596.jpg

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

I disagree. I do not see a center under that convection. Looks like maybe the MLC. I think the LLC is broadening out and looking trough-like. Watch the visible for the real story

Karen.png

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Current recon findings suggest a max intensity of just under 45kts right now under the deep convection to the West. Sure looks indicative to me of a secondary center.

recon_AF307-0812A-KAREN_timeseries.png

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

I disagree. I do not see a center under that convection. Looks like maybe the MLC. I think the LLC is broadening out and looking trough-like. Watch the visible for the real story

Karen.png

I think the recon data suggests that the center is attempting to relocate under the deep convection. 

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Recon found something close to a center -

 

recon_AF307-0812A-KAREN-229-09262019.png

Looks very broad and weak. I'd imagine they haven't sampled the strongest winds yet though. Definitely elongated NE to SW. On another note, this has been an exceptionally long-lived 35-40 kt storm!

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks very broad and weak. I'd imagine they haven't sampled the strongest winds yet though. Definitely elongated NE to SW. On another note, this has been an exceptionally long-lived 35-40 kt storm!

Oh sure - the poor thing has been beaten and battered.  But the surprising thing was the wind upgrade this morning so although it is struggling, it is still alive (sortof)! If what will be a primary center has shifted, it will be interesting if they can manage to actually find it (it may not be where the drop was).

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9 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Oh sure - the poor thing has been beaten and battered.  But the surprising thing was the wind upgrade this morning so although it is struggling, it is still alive (sortof)! If what will be a primary center has shifted, it will be interesting if they can manage to actually find it (it may not be where the drop was).

Recon is on a SW to NE pass right now and should get a good sampling of the possible secondary center shortly. 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Current recon findings suggest a max intensity of just under 45kts right now under the deep convection to the West. Sure looks indicative to me of a secondary center.

recon_AF307-0812A-KAREN_timeseries.png

Given the high rain rate and lack of flight level wind data to support this, I'm surprised that's not flagged

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scoop_mini.jpg

Quote

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
3-meter discus buoy
SCOOP payload
27.490 N 62.938 W (27°29'24" N 62°56'15" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 4 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 4 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: 2.5 m above mean sea level
Sea temp depth: 1 m below water line
Water depth: 5459 m
Watch circle radius: 5505 yards

buoy-41049-438pm-09262019.PNG

buoy-41049-440pm-pics-09262019.PNG

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5 pm update (pressure continues to rise) -

Quote
181 
WTNT32 KNHC 262034
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...KAREN'S WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 62.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 62.9 West.  Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h).  The storm
is expected to turn eastward and become nearly stationary by Friday
night, and then begin moving westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Karen is
expected to become a remnant low by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Quote
694 
WTNT42 KNHC 262035
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049
indicate that Karen's circulation is becoming increasingly
elongated.  A combination of data from these platforms also
supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now.  The
deterioration of Karen's structure suggests that weakening is
imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear
during the next day or so.  The GFS and ECMWF models--via their
simulated infrared satellite fields--are unanimous in showing Karen
losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours.  Based on
that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low
in 48 hours.  Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear
by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by
day 5.

Fixes suggest that Karen is slowing down a bit and turning to the
right, with an initial motion of 025/10 kt.  The steering flow will
be evolving over the next couple of days with high pressure
building to the north of Karen over the western Atlantic.  This
will cause the cyclone to almost come to a stop in about 36 hours,
and then turn to the west by 48 hours until dissipation on day 5.
This is the same forecast reasoning as before, and the new NHC
forecast is just an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 27.2N  62.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 27.9N  61.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 28.2N  60.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 28.1N  60.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 28.0N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1800Z 27.9N  63.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z 27.9N  66.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

203615_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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11 pm update (continues to weaken) -

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 270231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 62.1W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 62.1 West. Karen is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), but is expected to
become nearly stationary by Friday night or early Saturday. It
should then begin to move westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karen is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Quote
341 
WTNT42 KNHC 270233
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

The center of the circulation of Karen moved near or over the NOAA
buoy 41049 where a wind shift and a very modest drop in pressure
occurred. Currently, the winds are decreasing and pressures are
rising at the buoy.  The data from the buoy and recent satellite
imagery continue to indicate that the circulation remains elongated
with the low-level center located on the eastern edge of a
convective mass.  However, some curved rainbands are developing on
the eastern portion of the circulation as we speak.  T-numbers from
SAB and TAFB are 2.5 on the Dvorak scale and support a generous
initial intensity of 35 kt.  A very recent partial ASCAT pass
measured winds of only 30 kt, but the swath did not cover the area
where the plane measured stronger winds earlier today.

In about a day, the upper-level environment will become increasingly
hostile with the development of northwesterly shear, and thereafter,
the shear will become even stronger from the southwest. With this
anticipated upper-level wind pattern, Karen should weaken and
become devoid of deep convection in 36 hours or so and degenerate
into a remnant low.

Karen has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 055
degrees at 7 kt. The steering flow is forecast to change in 24 hours
as a ridge builds to the north of Karen, and the cyclone, or most
likely its remnants, should begin to move slowly westward. The
system is anticipated to degenerate into a westward moving trough in
3 days or so as forecast by global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 27.8N  62.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 28.3N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 28.5N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 28.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0000Z 28.3N  61.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z 28.0N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

023504_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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5 am update (still hanging on) -

Quote
551 
WTNT32 KNHC 270846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...KAREN HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR NOW...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 61.2W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Karen is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue this morning, but Karen is forecast
to become nearly stationary by tonight or early Saturday. A
westward motion is then anticipated by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Karen is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


 

Quote
981 
WTNT42 KNHC 270850
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Karen's status as a tropical cyclone is becoming increasingly
dubious. In a trio of ASCAT passes that arrived yesterday evening,
the circulation of the cyclone was indistinguishable from a surface
boundary that extends south from the remnants of post-tropical
cyclone Jerry. This suggests that Karen's circulation may no longer
be well-defined. Furthermore, deep convection near the center of
Karen has generally decreased and become less organized since last
night. Satellite-based intensity estimates support maintaining the
intensity of Karen at 35 kt, but this could be generous given that
the max winds observed in the earlier ASCAT data were lower.

Regardless of the exact starting intensity of the cyclone, gradual
weakening is expected for the next few days. There is unanimous
agreement among the dynamical models on this scenario. Simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models show the cyclone
devoid of deep convection within 36 hours, if not sooner.
Increasingly hostile upper-level winds should then prevent the
cyclone from reorganizing and it is forecast to dissipate in about
four days.

It has been difficult to locate the center of Karen overnight and
the initial motion estimate is uncertain but also unchanged
(055/7 kt). The global models are forecasting that Karen will
continue to move on this general heading through this morning before
it stalls tonight. A building ridge to the north should cause Karen
or its remnants to start moving westward over the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 28.3N  61.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 28.8N  60.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 29.1N  59.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 29.3N  60.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0600Z 29.3N  61.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z 29.0N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

085139_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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11 am update (now a Tropical Depression) -

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 271439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...KAREN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY
TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 59.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 59.6 West.  Karen is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening.  Karen
should then stall overnight and begin moving westward on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and Karen is
expected to either become a remnant low or open up into a trough of
low pressure by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Quote
811 
WTNT42 KNHC 271456 CCA
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number  22...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Corrected status to dissipated at 72 hours

Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly
disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the
circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that
extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry.  A partial
ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of
the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered,
probably still generously, to 30 kt.

Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is
now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear.  The
shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and
also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to
weakening and further loss of organization.  Based on the latest
global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep
convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours and then
open up into a trough by day 3.  Given the cyclone's current
structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these
options could occur as soon as later today.

The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt.  As it
becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its
eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward
on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the
western Atlantic.  This forecast scenario remains consistent with
the reasoning from previous NHC advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 28.8N  59.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 29.0N  59.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/1200Z 29.1N  59.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0000Z 29.3N  60.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 29.3N  62.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

144149_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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5 pm update - she's dead Jim.   I was looking at the sat pics of Lorenzo and the shear has been really impacting that storm enough to weaken it so Karen was no match for it if a monster CAT 4 has been having troubles...

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 272034
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Karen Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 58.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Karen were located near
latitude 29.3 North, longitude 58.5 West.  The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) but should stall and then
begin moving westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Winds associated with the remnants are expected to
gradually decrease during the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg
Quote
702 
WTNT42 KNHC 272035
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Karen Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that Karen's
circulation has opened up into a surface trough of low pressure.
In addition, the associated convection has continued to lose
organization.  Therefore, the system is no longer a tropical
cyclone, and this will be the final advisory.  Maximum winds, based
on the ASCAT pass, remain near 30 kt.

Although an area of low pressure may persist for a few more days,
the circulation should remain poorly organized, and the remnants
are not expected to produce any significant convection.  The
surface trough is expected to move little during the next 24 hours,
but it should then begin moving westward by 48 hours as high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 29.3N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

203611_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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