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weatherwiz

Wednesday, September 4, 2019 Convective Thread

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Quite the setup today (for September anyways). 

Pretty potent s/w trough moving through with sufficient wind shear and steep lapse rates. Question is with regards to instability, but appear there will be enough ingredients for some svr potential...including a tornado

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Looks good in many areas, especially PSM-ORH-BDL on west. Pretty good mid level lapse rates and strong winds aloft. 

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I moved to a few minutes from BDL a few weeks back and I'm pissed I have to go to Danbury after work...although I guess Danbury may see some action...but timing does not look good for me to chase :angry: 

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Really liking the trends. the ALB sounding shows decent lapse rates and good shear. HRRR has been quite interesting and consistent too.

image.thumb.png.a333c1d37c5b1900b502b85043819c26.png

 

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Just has a Special Weather Statement issued for a strong line of storms coming through

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
901 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

NYZ034-035-VTZ005-006-008>012-017>019-041400-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Rutland-Eastern
Rutland-Windsor-Eastern Chittenden-Western Chittenden-Western
Addison-Washington-Lamoille-Eastern Addison-Orange-
901 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ESSEX...
SOUTHWESTERN LAMOILLE...WEST CENTRAL ORANGE...ADDISON...NORTHERN
RUTLAND...SOUTHERN CHITTENDEN...NORTHWESTERN WINDSOR AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 901 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Newcomb to near Johnsburg. Movement
was northeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Middlebury, Vergennes, Rutland, Moriah, Crown Point, Westport,
Minerva, Salisbury, Schroon Lake, Waterbury Village, Orwell, Addison,
Shoreham, Ripton, Charlotte, Waltham, Bristol, Waitsfield, Rochester
and Fayston.

If you are on or near Lake Champlain, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4364 7343 4377 7335 4381 7340 4375 7406
      4379 7405 4381 7410 4402 7414 4454 7266
      4368 7271 4362 7330 4363 7337 4361 7338
      4361 7342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1301Z 247DEG 57KT 4398 7405 4364 7399

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Booming heard here.  We live right across the river from Stowe Country Club and their lightning horn has gone off a couple times this morning so far.

Pretty rare to see so much lightning for 9am in the morning in September.  The bulk is crossing the Champlain Valley now but a few pretty decent booms even out here in Stowe.

UWKH5nA.jpg

vbI5ekg.gif

 

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Kinda surprised this thread is so dead. Potent disturbance, remnant EML, solid shear, lapse rates and sufficient instability seem to augur well for severe today. 

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13 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Kinda surprised this thread is so dead. Potent disturbance, remnant EML, solid shear, lapse rates and sufficient instability seem to augur well for severe today. 

Just going by prior events this year, Every time i see SPC place us in a slight risk, It hasn't panned out for severe up here anyways.

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High prob a watch is coming for some though.

image.png.a1e3e1b549b2260ef6b8755ea4779916.png

  Mesoscale Discussion 1924
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1019 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of Central/Eastern NY...VT...NH...Western
   ME...MA...CT...and Far Northeast PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 041519Z - 041715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated over the
   next several hours. Damaging wind gusts are the primary severe
   threat but a couple tornadoes are also possible. A watch will
   eventually be needed for portions of the region.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from SLK
   (in far northern NY) southwestward across central NY to just east of
   BFD (in far north-central PA). Radar trends have shown gradually
   increasing intensity of the cells along the front in south-central
   NY as they move into a diurnally destabilizing and modestly buoyant
   air mass downstream. Ongoing moisture advection has lead to an 2-4
   degree increase in dewpoints downstream across the Hudson Valley and
   this general trends is expected to continue, leading to air-mass
   destabilization ahead of the front as far north as northeast NY, VT,
   NH, and western ME. 

   At the same time, strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent
   attendant to the shortwave trough moving into the Northeast will
   augment the frontal forcing already occurring. The combination of
   this increased forcing for ascent and air-mass destabilization is
   expected to result in expanding thunderstorm coverage over the next
   few hours. Even with the modest buoyancy, strong vertical shear will
   provide a kinematic environment supportive of organized storms.
   Primary threat will be damaging wind gusts associated with bowing
   line segments. However, given the southerly flow across southeastern
   NY and southern New England, some tornado threat also exists,
   especially with any more discrete cells ahead of the front. A watch
   will likely be needed by early afternoon, particularly over eastern
   NY and New England.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/04/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   41747693 42387681 43827469 44847352 44597056 42547148
               41537287 41317494 41747693

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It lacks deep rich boundary layer and there is dry air aloft, but any vigorous cells will have wind damage potential and sups possible. I'm not sure it will be widespread, but a few cells will pack a punch.

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SPC seems to believe there's a serious tornado threat, and it's hard to argue there isn't, especially wherever there's plenty of sunshine, like for instance here - always a good sign on a potential severe day...

Think we'll finally see an actual tornado watch today?  

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A quick 0.45" of rain up here with the first round. 

Sun is back out but still a lot of clouds around.

We'll see but I have a feeling we are done for the day.

Good luck to you guys downwind of the mountains.

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18 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

SPC seems to believe there's a serious tornado threat, and it's hard to argue there isn't, especially wherever there's plenty of sunshine, like for instance here - always a good sign on a potential severe day...

Think we'll finally see an actual tornado watch today?  

Nah. Doesn't mean we won't see a few tors though.

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It is quite gusty already with clouds and sun atm, as long as the sun stays around I would assume things fire up later on.... 

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19 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

 right to PDS hopefully

I know you're being facetious, but it got me thinking, has NE ever had a PDS watch? I can't think of any, but my memory is not as encyclopedic as Will's.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Booming heard here.  We live right across the river from Stowe Country Club and their lightning horn has gone off a couple times this morning so far.

Pretty rare to see so much lightning for 9am in the morning in September.  The bulk is crossing the Champlain Valley now but a few pretty decent booms even out here in Stowe.

UWKH5nA.jpg

vbI5ekg.gif

 

Lost power with that line earlier today

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9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I know you're being facetious, but it got me thinking, has NE ever had a PDS watch? I can't think of any, but my memory is not as encyclopedic as Will's.

Yes...we need a little hype around here though. ;)

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12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I know you're being facetious, but it got me thinking, has NE ever had a PDS watch? I can't think of any, but my memory is not as encyclopedic as Will's.

Think like May 16, 2003 or something around there 

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STW it is... good luck -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0634.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 634
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Connecticut
     Massachusetts
     Southern Maine
     New Hampshire
     Northern New Jersey
     Southern and Eastern New York
     Eastern Pennsylvania
     Rhode Island
     Southern Vermont
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM
     until 900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of intensifying thunderstorm
   development are expected this afternoon along and ahead of a cold
   front. Adequate instability along with very strong deep-layer winds
   will yield the potential for storms capable of damaging winds and
   some hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out mainly across
   southeast New York into southern New England. The severe risk will
   diminish from west to east across the region by early/mid-evening.

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