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janetjanet998

7-19 Severe outbreak MN into upper MI

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4 minutes ago, outflow said:

The strong se component to the storms would seem to favor a track maybe in the Milwaukee grand rapids corridor. I know the models that have been showing the bow racing east across the southern up and northern lower are going to be completely off

Yeah I would probably split the difference, it could do a hard right once it gets across the lake though with the storm motion.

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I wonder how much possible backbuilding to the sw might occur with this line.  Current temps of 16 at 700 mb won't help convection, but the line is moving into 14 degree areas even as it is progged to intensify and move east per models.

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Just now, Stebo said:

Yeah I would probably split the difference, it could do a hard right once it gets across the lake though with the storm motion.

I think it had me fooled, started to turn right once it crossed into Wisconsin, and seeing the systems the last couple days do this and sag further southward than progged I thought it would be the start of a trend, but it has eased up a bit on the turn.

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

given the wording on the watch...does SPC go HIGH risk for wind overnight on next the update?

I would especially considering the magnitude of the situation.

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3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

given the wording on the watch...does SPC go HIGH risk for wind overnight on next the update?

I can certainly see it happening. Only 2 high risks have ever been issued on 01z outlook (April 30,2010 and May 22,2004)
 

Also some higher population cities potentially in the path of the main complex include Wasau(39k) and Stevens Point (26K) in the next few hours

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4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Also some higher population cities potentially in the path of the main complex include Wasau(39k) and Stevens Point (26K) in the next few hours

Represent...or I would, if I weren't out of state.  Watching this keenly, wonder what I'll come back to next week.

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Gust front/outflow can be seen moving through the Twin Cities on MPX radar at this time with some cells starting to form.  Bears watching for possible westward development of the line.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0653 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 524...  
  
VALID 192353Z - 200130Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 524 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WW 524  
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WW 525 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  
  
DISCUSSION...A LARGE, HP SUPERCELL OVER WEST-CENTRAL WI CONTINUES A  
TRANSITION INTO A BOW ECHO EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR VELOCITY  
TRENDS FROM KDLH AND KARX SHOW INCREASING MIDLEVEL VELOCITIES  
GREATER THAN 80 KTS IN THE 8-12 KFT LAYER. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR  
THAT DOWNDRAFTS ARE INCREASING AND A REAR INFLOW JET MAY BE  
DEVELOPING. KARX VWP IS ALSO SHOWING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET  
NICELY, WITH 35-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER. AS  
THE BOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED, EXPECT THE SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION TO  
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS STORMS TRACK INTO WW 525. TRENDS WILL  
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WFO ARX COULD EXPAND WW 525 SOUTHWARD IF  
NEEDED.   
  
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF WW 524 OVER THE  
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE  
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE MAIN BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL  
MN, BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAKENING FURTHER WEST AND SOMEWHAT  
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE  
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS  
COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS FURTHER WEST INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE MAIN  
SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING  
BOW.  

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42 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

I have seen many 90's....don't recall a 105 or even 100

I wonder why they went with 105 anyway?  rather the a nice even  number like 100

Well they were right.

EAU CLAIRE,WI (EAU) ASOS reports gust of 91 knots (105.1 mph) from NW @ 2356Z -- KEAU 192356Z 32025G47 8SM -TSRA FEW028 BKN035 BKN044 24/19 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 32047/2341 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB55 TSB55 SLP038 TS OHD MOV E P0000 60000 T02390194 10333 20239 53006

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Looking forward to the storms later 

High and dry.

 

Nothing getting here with 14-16C at 700mb. Mega cap and ridging.

 

 

.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

High and dry.

 

Nothing getting here with 14-16C at 700mb. Mega cap and ridging.

 

 

.

And even if it does, it is practically guaranteed to be in a weakening state by then.  Less shear with southward extent and although there is a lot of instability around even well into the overnight hours, that is some nasty mid level warmth as you mentioned.  

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14 minutes ago, Minnesota_storms said:

Well they were right.

EAU CLAIRE,WI (EAU) ASOS reports gust of 91 knots (105.1 mph) from NW @ 2356Z -- KEAU 192356Z 32025G47 8SM -TSRA FEW028 BKN035 BKN044 24/19 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 32047/2341 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB55 TSB55 SLP038 TS OHD MOV E P0000 60000 T02390194 10333 20239 53006

47kts? That isn't even severe criteria.

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that's what I was wondering. did someone/something mis-code the gust to a different part of the metar? or was it an error of mis-converting the knots to km/hr, or maybe even thinking it was meters per sec, converting that to knots?

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14 minutes ago, Stebo said:

47kts? That isn't even severe criteria.

The 105 mph gust might have been an error.  There was a COR on the obs.

 

KEAU 192356Z COR 32025G47 8SM -TSRA FEW028 BKN035 BKN044 24/19 A2966 AO2 PK WND 32047/2341 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB55 TSB55 SLP038 TS OHD MOV E P0000 60000 T02390194 10333 20239 53006

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Just now, Hoosier said:

The 105 mph gust might have been an error.  There was a COR on the obs.

The ob is also missing the KT after the gust.

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Just now, Stebo said:

The ob is also missing the KT after the gust.

i just ran the number. if the computer thought the speed was 47 m/s, not 47 kt, well, 47 m/s = 91kt = 105mph. case closed?

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Just now, Jim Marusak said:

i just ran the number. if the computer thought the speed was 47 m/s, not 47 kt, well, 47 m/s = 91kt = 105mph. case closed?

Yep that would do it.

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Just to add to the previous watch wind speed discussion, I believe a watch for the May 2009 super derecho had a 105 mph wind speed listed. Although that was a tornado watch IIRC. At an airport so I can't conveniently investigate further

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

High and dry.

 

Nothing getting here with 14-16C at 700mb. Mega cap and ridging.

 

 

.

fwiw, the 00z RAOBS back up those temps, with 15C observed at GRB and 16C at DVN.  Besides how warm the temps are, another thing to consider is how far upstream it extends from northern IL.  That is a long way to go for the convection to fight through.

190719211823.gif.e8ef5c9fcf28333dbee8f202caeb7042.gif

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17 minutes ago, The_Doctor said:

Just to add to the previous watch wind speed discussion, I believe a watch for the May 2009 super derecho had a 105 mph wind speed listed. Although that was a tornado watch IIRC. At an airport so I can't conveniently investigate further

You are correct. It was a tornado watch from MO/AR to KY/TN. There were 2 PDS severe thunderstorm watches to the west of that earlier that morning.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2009/ww0267.html

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Green Bay is really looking down the barrel of this one, getting some reports of trees down across Langlade County and in Antigo.

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A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT  
FOR SOUTHERN FOREST...MARINETTE...MENOMINEE...OCONTO...EASTERN  
LANGLADE AND CENTRAL SHAWANO COUNTIES...  
  
AT 842 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF NORTH OTTER CREEK NATURAL AREA TO  
MOUNTAIN TO NEAR BIG SMOKEY FALLS TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WITTENBERG,  
MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.  
  
THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.  
  
HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. HOMES AND BUSINESSES   
         WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGE. EXPECT   
         EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
MARINETTE, SHAWANO, CRANDON, MENOMINEE, OCONTO, GILLETT, CRIVITZ,  
MOUNTAIN, WAUSAUKEE AND POUND.  

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