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bluewave

July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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The ultimate nightmare would be a derecho knocking out power the night before the 2 hottest days of the summer. At least Manhattan shouldn't have any problems.

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5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

The ultimate nightmare would be a derecho knocking out power the night before the 2 hottest days of the summer. At least Manhattan shouldn't have any problems.

They are pretty hard to predict in advance and very rare around here. I would actually be the most worried in NYC for equipment overload failures.

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5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

The ultimate nightmare would be a derecho knocking out power the night before the 2 hottest days of the summer. At least Manhattan shouldn't have any problems.

Good lord-imagine that.

-

locally rounds of tropical downpours moving through all day here....74/73 approaching 4 inches since yesterday's training storms got going.

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

They are pretty hard to predict in advance and very rare around here. I would actually be the most worried in NYC for equipment overload failures.

the good news there is that it's a Saturday and most offices are vacant....

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15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

11bacc91-eab9-4c8b-a98c-af89e9db846b.gif

If the HRDPS is correct I would probably be just a hair to far south to get in on the main core but only a slight shift north/south can make a big difference at this range on who gets what and how bad. It should be interesting to track over the next 24 hours.

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I think its been mentioned but the extreme dew points make it a lot harder for AC equipment to cool a home and therefore can lead to more power usage. 100/60 will take less energy to cool than 100/80. 

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Rapidly spiked to 86F here with some breaks of sun in the past hour. If we continue occasional breaks, 850s definitely support 90. But we'll probably fall short.

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I must be missing something with this talk of 90 today in this forum.

Im at 76F at 245pm.

 

It is pouring...again.

The only thing today will be is a BN day.

 

What are other posters seeing that I am missing?

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12z Euro has 80 degree dewpoints and 23C 850 MB temperatures both Saturday and Sunday.

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11 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I must be missing something with this talk of 90 today in this forum.

Im at 76F at 245pm.

 

It is pouring...again.

The only thing today will be is a BN day.

 

What are other posters seeing that I am missing?

depends where you are...south of the city is partly sunny and roasting-north is socked in with showers and cooler temps--73-75 here all day with downpours...

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15 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I must be missing something with this talk of 90 today in this forum.

Im at 76F at 245pm.

 

It is pouring...again.

The only thing today will be is a BN day.

 

What are other posters seeing that I am missing?

Today won’t be BN. The lows will probably skew it AN. It’s in the 80s as well now

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42 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Euro is lower again with the 850s.

 

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12z Euro has 80 degree dewpoints and 23C 850 MB temperatures both Saturday and Sunday.

Hmmm

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2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Those statements aren't necessarily contradictory. Euro was very warm with the 850 temps 2 days ago.

23c is good for 100. With full sun and mixing. Your post implied Euro backed off on heat, which it didn’t 

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2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Is it showing any of those mid 80s dews it had the other day?  I haven’t had a chance to look yet. 

Looking at the smoothed out SV images, it looks like it has backed off on the expansiveness of 80+ DPs a little, but still showing pockets of the 80s shade.  Seems like high 70s DPs area wide are becoming increasingly likely..

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5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Is it showing any of those mid 80s dews it had the other day?  I haven’t had a chance to look yet. 

It has a regional dewpoint max of 81 on Saturday and 80 on Sunday. 

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3 minutes ago, Radders said:

Looking at the smoothed out SV images, it looks like it has backed off on the expansiveness of 80+ DPs a little, but still showing pockets of the 80s shade.  Seems like high 70s DPs area wide are becoming increasingly likely..

Anyone who believed the 86 degree dewpoints hasnt been at this long. 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Good lord-imagine that.

-

locally rounds of tropical downpours moving through all day here....74/73 approaching 4 inches since yesterday's training storms got going.

Not too far to your north, I only have 0.67 inches in the past 2 days...amazing 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It has a regional dewpoint max of 81 on Saturday and 80 on Sunday. 

like you said, it's been underdone on dews this year...wouldn't be surprised to be more 80 spots than modeled....

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10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Anyone who believed the 86 degree dewpoints hasnt been at this long. 

Yeah - unlikely, but could see the usual coastal spots like KJFK beating the guidance by a couple of degrees.  

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1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Which is why I said bet the under two days ago...not that my Irish arse would be able to fell the difference of an 80 dew vs mid 80s

Literally splitting hairs, I don't think most care if it's close to 80 DP or low 80s DP, it's going to feel muggy regardless for the public.

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2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Which is why I said bet the under two days ago...not that my Irish arse would be able to fell the difference of an 80 dew vs mid 80s

My guess is that JFK and ISP hit 80, I don’t see NYC, LGA or NJ sites  hitting it, but 76-79 will be common. 

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3 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Literally splitting hairs, I don't think most care if it's close to 80 DP or low 80 DP, it's going to feel muggy regardless for the public.

Violently agree.  If its going to be stupid hot though lets break records, set a new dew record.  Doubt it'll happen this time but its only a matter of time until we set a new dew record.

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