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Dr. Dews

June 29-30 2019 Thunderstorms

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16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Next day 2 outlook at 1:30 local time might be interesting?

I think it could get cut south quite a bit. I don't think we see any higher probabilities either. 

 

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42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think it could get cut south quite a bit. I don't think we see any higher probabilities either. 

 

12z HIRES NAM is quite robust with the surface CAPE over SE MA and RI on Saturday and again on Sunday.  Sunday looks like a potentially damaging hail event as the H5 low moves through the flow with a strong disturbance on the southside of the low.

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1730 is meh for all... even for us near DC

...Northeast States...

   A cold front will advance southeast through the Northeast States
   within a northwesterly flow regime associated with an amplifying
   eastern U.S. upper trough. The pre-frontal warm sector will become
   moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are
   expected to intensify along the front from PA into southern New
   England by mid day or early afternoon. Belt of modest westerly
   (30-35 kt) deep layer winds and the destabilizing boundary layer
   will promote a few strong to severe gusts as activity develops
   southeast.
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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

There's nothing similar about the set up

Yeah...I took the bate for like 2 minutes of my life and bothered to open up NCEP weather-charts Library site. Only a very brief gander at the 1953 June 9--> 10 charts exposes either A, typical JB doing JB promotional propaganda ... or B, he's off.  Either way...irresponsible.     Low and behold, there's very little if any analog value there.  

 

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I think tomorrow is going to be garbage. 

1) the pre-frontal trough moves through too early...you can see the wind shift occur between 11-1 PM. This will spark off some activity, but we won't have realized maximum instability. 

Now if you look behind the wind shift...you'll notice temperatures continue to increase and warm well into the 80's...this is a product of sun (duh!) and the flow becoming more westerly. 

2) If the cold front was lagging much farther behind the pre-frontal this would allow some time for winds to become more SW...the significance of this is moisture/Td's. As I mentioned...the W flow will decrease dews. 

Sunday could be really fun...especially eastern SNE where stronger moisture convergence will reside 

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10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe Sunday will be worst for SNE.

Yeah, though that may depend which particular backyard you are in.

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I may eat a huge plate of crow, but we'll see.

BOX seems more than "meh"

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Shortwave moves through the upper flow and drives a cold front
through Southern New England. Conditions will remain unstable
through the day. Model CAPEs build to 2000-3000 J/Kg which is
impressive for Southern New England. Highest values are expected
over CT-RI-SE Mass in the afternoon. Favorable instability is
also reflected in other indices... Totals around 50, Mid level
lapse rates around 6.5, and Lifted Indices well below zero.
HREF probability of 0-3 Km Helicity over 100 is 80
percent...over 200 is 30 percent. Winds at 850 mb reach 30 kt,
while at 500 mb they reach 40-45 kt. Most of this and other
values suggest a potential for strong storms. The values, and
the timing of the cold front, favor Northern MA in the morning
and CT-RI-SE Mass in the afternoon. Strong wind gusts are the
prime concern, but a storm that develops sufficient helicity
could generate large hail. We are adding stronger wording to
the thunderstorm forecast based on these potentials.

 

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Make sure the basement stairs are clear of all the empty beer bottles so you don't trip and fall down the stairs in haste when the EF0's start raining down.

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16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Make sure the basement stairs are clear of all the empty beer bottles so you don't trip and fall down the stairs in haste when the EF0's start raining down.

Heavy heavy EF0s tomorrow?

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Well...  Wiz' raises a valid concern. 

just experience alone ... I can't count over the years how often I've seen a kind of "dry line" ( it's not... but it's a convergence trough with dry air on the west side not associated with an actual cold front ) that summarily then moves east across the area, whisking the theta-e east early...  You spend the afternoon admiring the back wall of tropopausal poking CB's ...envious of Cape.  Look at the charts? cold front is still way NW... what gives

That's a geographic ( additional charm ) about this area, is that when there is a west or NW wind type warm sector, we get a lee-side veering of the wind.. It creates a convergence zone that extends from roughly HFD-MHT ... thereabouts ...with a line of towers.  

I have also seen it, however, where this pre- evacuates... you lull, and then the atmosphere recharges.  Also, there are other factors..  Hill and mountain perturbation triggers can send storms SE ...and with synoptic accent increasing toward the end of the day, it's also not a big leap to see a second or even tertiary cluster get going from eastern NY thru western Maine.  

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

My expectations are in check, its NE "severe"after all.

Yup, and my area is still in TS-avoidance mode.  Yesterday's warned storm was in Carthage, 20 miles WNW with 60 dbz pixels and headed right toward the house.  Then it lateraled the energy 10 miles to the south and dumped hail to 1.25" in Livermore Falls.  We got distant grumbles and 0.02".  I don't think lightning has hit within 5+ miles of our house since last August.
Just had a compact little TS pass maybe 2 miles north of the office - dry outside but I think the hospital 3 miles north had a brief spate of RA++.  I expect no less (meaning, no more) from the weekend action, though I'll be content if it decently waters the garden.

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46 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Make sure the basement stairs are clear of all the empty beer bottles so you don't trip and fall down the stairs in haste when the EF0's start raining down.

That's your best wx related post in a while ;)

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wild one ahead tomorrow. You are the SNE severe wx expert 

Sunday's cold pool could be fun too.

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41 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Sunday's cold pool could be fun too.

I'm gaining interest... starting to remind me of last weekend - Saturday I think it was...  We had some marble hailers around

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Where in IA?  I spent a lot of time in CID as a company I worked for for 12 years or so was hq'd there.

I lived in Davenport (worked at DVN) from 2008-2011. So that was all part of my CWA.

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