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Hoosier

April 27-28 Potentially Historic Super Late Season Winter Storm

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Almost feels like we are entering the theater of the absurd from a weather perspective.  Anyway, looks like mainly MN-WI-MI under the gun at this time but adjacent parts of Iowa and Illinois may not be out of it.  

A bit early for amounts but a band of wind driven snow looks like a decent bet. 

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Euro shifted north at 00z. Hammers central/northern WI and central MN. We'll see if it's a trend or it waffles back south at 12z. My guess would be the latter.

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Yuck.  You could not pay me enough to live that far north, I think Columbus winters are long.  

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But why on a weekend...? I could care less if we get 35F and rain on a Tuesday in May, but please give me dry average temps Fri, Sat, Sun this time of year.

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1 hour ago, btcs31 said:

But why on a weekend...? I could care less if we get 35F and rain on a Tuesday in May, but please give me dry average temps Fri, Sat, Sun this time of year.

LOT might put out an advisory like 2 days in advance if models come into agreement with this. :lol:

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.a76ab95a1c166ce9209d4a58e30ae65a.png

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Was looking at some late season snows in the last few days of April or later and to say that climo is hostile for accumulating snow south of about the WI-IL border is an understatement.  Rockford doesn't have a 2" calendar day snow after April 23 and there are very few 1" snows after that day.

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Should Detroit get basically any accumulating snow, it would be historic. Looking back at the records, there has been only 6 instances of 0.5” of snow or more from April 27th to the end of the snow season. The highest was 6.0” on 5/9/1923, which is also the most recent occurrence of more than a tenth of an inch of snow in this timeframe. The rest of the dates are from 1912 or earlier. If Detroit gets just 0.2” or more, it would be the first time this has happened in almost 100 years on April 27th or later. The average last date of accumulating snow at Detroit is April 8th, with the latest date being 5/22/1883. The average last date of 1”+ at Detroit is March 24th, and the average last date of 3”+ is February 27th. 

Top 5 1-day snowfalls at Detroit from April 27th to June 31st:

1) 6.0” on 5/9/1923

2) 3.0” on 4/29/1909

3) 2.7” on 5/22/1883

4) 2.3” on 5/21/1883

5) 1.5” on 5/13/1912

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3 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said:

In southern Wisconsin, the records for most snow this late in the season are 7.8" on Apr. 30, 1994 for Madison, and 5.0" on Apr. 30, 1907 for Milwaukee.

 

Does that include May snows (like in 1990)?  I forget what the official daily total was for that freak May snow.

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32 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

Does that include May snows (like in 1990)?  I forget what the official daily total was for that freak May snow.

Yes - May snows were less than those - May records are 4.8" on May 3, 1935 in Madison, and 3.2" on May 3, 1935, and also May 10, 1990 in Milwaukee.

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Probably somewhat higher tree damage potential than the storm a couple weeks ago with spring bloom being farther along.

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With more of the guidance suggesting possible snow in Chicago on April 29, below are Chicago's 5 biggest snowfalls from April 25 and later:

1. 3.3", April 25-26, 1910
2. 2.2", May 1-2, 1940
3. 1.3", May 3-4, 1907
4. 0.6", May 8-9, 1923
5. 0.5", May 6, 1989

 

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going to be in Minneapolis this weekend and ironically might escape the snow being up north.

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Besides the daily snowfall records, there are a couple other things that *could* come into play for Chicago if trends don't reverse.

The most snow to fall in a season from April 14 on is 6.9" in 1910.  ORD currently has 5.4"

If Chicago were to receive at least 1", it appears that it would be the first time that 2 separate storm systems/complexes have produced 1"+ from April 14 on in the same season.  Note that this is not the same thing as having multiple calendar days from April 14 on with 1"+ snow, which has happened in a couple instances when a storm spanned multiple days.

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Still some time to back down a bit but overall to me this is shaping up to be every bit as significant as the mid April storm.  You could argue maybe more... if not from an amounts perspective then just because it's a couple weeks later.

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LOT must have summoned RC for the special mid range AFD becasue he did so well on the April 14 event. Nice and fun discussion as always.

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I wonder if this will stick to the pavement? I know that people often fall for the fallacy of the "ground is too warm" myth, but it has been pretty darn warm lately and some of this will be falling during daylight too with a high sun angle, especially west of here.

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7 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I wonder if this will stick to the pavement? I know that people often fall for the fallacy of the "ground is too warm" myth, but it has been pretty darn warm lately and some of this will be falling during daylight too with a high sun angle, especially west of here.

Rates should be pretty good, so I would expect it to stick on the pavement.

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I'm pulling for this one to shift south...I'm always in for historic/record events.

As of now, looks like agreement on 6"+ getting into the northern tier across N. IL.

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14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'm pulling for this one to shift south...I'm always in for historic/record events.

As of now, looks like agreement on 6"+ getting into the northern tier across N. IL.

Say it ain't so.

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41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Rates should be pretty good, so I would expect it to stick on the pavement.

Any thoughts on ratios? That stuff a couple weeks ago had to be like 6:1. I'm guessing something similar in this case but maybe a bit better as omega looks good in the SGZ on NAM BUFKIT MKE sounding.

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