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andyhb

April 13th-14th Severe Threat

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Definitely looks like a weakness in that hodo. Vbv issues maybe? I think lack of stronger capping really hurt today. Morning convection festered into the afternoon. Just goes to show you how sensitive severe wx setups are despite great parameters in place

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Currently zero discrete surface-based cells across the MDT risk at 21z... hardly even any QLCS threat to speak of attm.
You pissed it off, lol.

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15 minutes ago, ICEHOCEY77 said:

wow, I'd say so.

Something about Yazoo City where that cell could hit maybe,that town is like a tornado magnet for some odd reason

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Storm mode still sucks, but that cell heading towards Vicksburg looks like it’s producing an absolute monster. Going to need a tornado emergency ASAP. 
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Eh, not necessarily because that area is incredibly rural farmland and swamps. There is literally almost nothing but a few crossroads “towns.”


.

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Storms really struggling to take advantage of a high end environment due to unfavorable storm modes. SPC was definitely right to hold off on going high risk. Not over yet but not too optimistic this will be a tornado outbreak 

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Not convective severe but 60-70 mph wind gusts being observed the past couple hours in/near the TROWAL over parts of north Texas/southern Oklahoma. 

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Another area of rotation has formed SW of Vicksburg more on a path to the city itself. Storm seems complicated though.

 

Edit: Has suddenly gotten really strong. This is not good. 

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Just now, SmokeEater said:

Some damage being reported in Vicksburg, roofs off, power out to most of the city.

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You'd think after the big tornado they had in Vicksburg in 1953 they'd have better building codes, but a lot of the houses I saw there are either very old,  poorly constructed, or both.

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Lots of reports of rapidly rotating wall clouds. While there seems to be a lot of mid/upper lvl shear, lack of shear near the surface  is keeping this from being a big outbreak.

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Given the storms now in Mississippi and cells popping in Alabama I think Birmingham NWS mets were correct earlier today by issuing an Enhanced Risk for Alabama, disagreeing with the SPC outlook.

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