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showmethesnow

Friday Night Coastal March 1/2 disco and obs

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As most know I have been Harping on this Coastal for several days now as to it being a short lead surprise. Thoughts haven't changed and am now actually getting somewhat gungho on it especially for N and W of the cities. Also wouldn't rule out a somewhat significant sleet event southeast of the snow line. So I thought it was time we pulled it out of the other threads and devoted a thread to it.

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Let the radar hallucinations begin. :weenie: Radar looks more robust with the precip in the deep south compared to the NAMs. Also seeing a better fetch of moisture pulling up from the gulf then currently projected. So I have to wonder if the models will continue to trend wetter as we near in time. Also seeing what looks to be a squall line pushing through Georgia that neither model is picking up on at this time. Have to wonder if the southern energy pulling through to the south, that will help form our low, is stronger then projected at this time. Needless to say a quicker developing and stronger low will probably increase our chances for wintry/snowier outcome. And with .75" of qpf projected now ( and the trend has been to increase this as we near in time) we are beginning to talk fairly significant amounts not to mention the heavier rates will help to overcome temp issues.

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Should we keep this in the thread for this mornings event? 

 

Edit: never mind, I see it’s been pinned. We good. 

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I had plans for tonight, which are still fine in the rain and all the modeling up until today has been pretty solid showing just rain in Baltimore, but now I see the short term models are getting the frozen stuff back closer. How likely do you guys think it is Baltimore will get in on snow/ice tonight? 

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12 minutes ago, mappy said:

Should we keep this in the thread for this mornings event? 

 

Edit: never mind, I see it’s been pinned. We good. 

Yeah I thought maybe the same thread but oh well, I pinned it anyway.

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Here's something to maybe keep an eye on throughout the day. Below is the 3k surface for 8 am. Notice we have two batches of precip to our south. One (northern) is associated with energy/lower pressures running up to our southwest. The second is what will become part of our developing low. What we are looking for is how these two patches of precip respond over the day. If we see a major blow up on the northern piece and not so much on the southern that will tell us that this feature is fairly strong/dominate compared to the southern/future coastal. This will negatively affect our temp profile leading into the coastal as it will tend to bring warmer air in. Not only that but it will tend to dampen the coastal lows development. Conversely if we see a major blowup on the southern piece vs the northern we are probably looking at a quicker developing and stronger coastal. This is exactly what we would want to see. 

Either way we will see the precip eventually blossom on the northern piece at some point as it focuses the moisture being thrown into it from the coastal. But the longer we see that delay the better. Looking at radar was promising in that regards because the southern piece was looking more robust then the NAMs had projected.

eta: One other thing to note is that we are seeing a pretty good blow up of precip in the northern gulf that neither NAM was really picking up on to this degree. Would have to believe that is a good thing as it should help to bolster the southern energy.

 

3ksurface.gif.55665f0e0e52bd18a2d47cc5e6331f86.gif

 

 

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Have to hand it to ShowMe. This is still very likely just a cold rain for most of us but for the favored areas, this is looking much more interesting. I know if I was in Southern PA or even up in far Northern MD, I'd be really intrigued. Maybe it will surprise us all.

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8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Have to hand it to ShowMe. This is still very likely just a cold rain for most of us but for the favored areas, this is looking much more interesting. I know if I was in Southern PA or even up in far Northern MD, I'd be really intrigued. Maybe it will surprise us all.

If you are in Elkridge MD I probably would be paying attention just by going by the soundings from the 3K. With what looks to be deep enough cold at the lower levels you are probably looking at sleet for most of the event ending as possible snow. Right now we are roughly talking 3/4" of precip. And do the math at 2:1 or 3:1 ratios. And to be honest you are so close in the upper levels from roughly the middle of the storm onward that it could very well end up being snow with just a touch colder solution. I can see where it could possibly play out as sleet initially flipping over to a heavy wet snow.

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6z Euro for tonight.  I hope I get these in order...

6z Euro 17.png

6z Euro 18.png

6z Euro 19.png

6z Euro 20.png

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

6z Euro for tonight.  I hope I get these in order...

 

 

 

 

You don't by chance have snow/sleet totals for this?

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

6z Euro for tonight.  I hope I get these in order...

6z Euro 17.png

6z Euro 18.png

6z Euro 19.png

6z Euro 20.png

Right on the line but Loudoun especially Leesburg west is in pink/blue the entire time.  Interesting 

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

You don't by chance have snow/sleet totals for this?

These are 3 hour totals and they are the best for your area.

 

 

6z Euro 3 HR Snow.png

6z Euro 3HR Snow 21.png

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The rest of us hopefuls need this to over perform so I will be rooting for the northern crew like an underdog sports team that I have wagered the mortgage payment. 

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I was hoping this would drag into Sat morning as I have to be out on a boat for dumb rowing people that need to set up their race course.  I want them to cancel.  As of now, my dumb ass will be out on a boat....in the damp cold.....hoping I don't fall into cold ass water.

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

I was hoping this would drag into Sat morning as I have to be out on a boat for dumb rowing people that need to set up their race course.  I want them to cancel.  As of now, my dumb ass will be out on a boat....in the damp cold.....hoping I don't fall into cold ass water.

Bolsters my faith in humanity when I see individuals such as yourself devote freely of your time for others in a cheerful manner. Or maybe not. 

Guessing the wife signed you up without first consulting you? :D

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12 minutes ago, H2O said:

I was hoping this would drag into Sat morning as I have to be out on a boat for dumb rowing people that need to set up their race course.  I want them to cancel.  As of now, my dumb ass will be out on a boat....in the damp cold.....hoping I don't fall into cold ass water.

Watch list or Reaper call?

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Watch list or Reaper call?

Do we need to schedule that service or can it be no appointment needed?  Asking for a friend

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26 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm going with obs of "ripping" and "getting crushed" from losetoa6, showme, psu, and Sparky while the rest of us ignore the thread.

yet you checked in and commented anyways. :P 

Seriously though, you ok? You seem a little... off.. today

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15 minutes ago, H2O said:

I was hoping this would drag into Sat morning as I have to be out on a boat for dumb rowing people that need to set up their race course.  I want them to cancel.  As of now, my dumb ass will be out on a boat....in the damp cold.....hoping I don't fall into cold ass water.

You’re on a boat, don’t you ever forget 

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Watch list or Reaper call?

This coastal is looking pretty promising for your neck of the woods at this time. Best event of the year maybe?

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52 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If you are in Elkridge MD I probably would be paying attention just by going by the soundings from the 3K. With what looks to be deep enough cold at the lower levels you are probably looking at sleet for most of the event ending as possible snow. Right now we are roughly talking 3/4" of precip. And do the math at 2:1 or 3:1 ratios. And to be honest you are so close in the upper levels from roughly the middle of the storm onward that it could very well end up being snow with just a touch colder solution. I can see where it could possibly play out as sleet initially flipping over to a heavy wet snow.

We won last night. We shall win again. You know atmospheric memory and all. Lol. 

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Watch list or Reaper call?

Bill-Dance-Bloopers-Mix-boat-in-the-wate

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Do we need to schedule that service or can it be no appointment needed?  Asking for a friend

1-800-REAPME2. Always open during busy season.

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

This coastal is looking pretty promising for your neck of the woods at this time. Best event of the year maybe?

Let’s put it this way...if I weren’t already dead, I’d be dead. This winter is irredeemable up here as far as I’m concerned.

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Latest HRRR pushes the snow and sleet right to the cities, especially for Baltimore, but only for a couple of hours. The whole thing seems to move in and out too quickly to have too much of an impact. Looks like maybe 1-3 inches at best at the moment. Hopefully, it keeps trending for us. Looks great for Boston though. Need to book a flight up there for this one.

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14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Latest HRRR pushes the snow and sleet right to the cities, especially for Baltimore, but only for a couple of hours. The whole thing seems to move in and out too quickly to have too much of an impact. Looks like maybe 1-3 inches at best at the moment. Hopefully, it keeps trending for us. Looks great for Boston though. Need to book a flight up there for this one.

Yeah 12z HRRR has me interested. Looks like a few hours of heavy snow possible with this one, around 9-10pm near Baltimore. Better to my north, but I'll take another few inches.

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14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Latest HRRR pushes the snow and sleet right to the cities, especially for Baltimore, but only for a couple of hours. The whole thing seems to move in and out too quickly to have too much of an impact. Looks like maybe 1-3 inches at best at the moment. Hopefully, it keeps trending for us. Looks great for Boston though. Need to book a flight up there for this one.

Agreed. It is showing a really nice thump for a couple of hours. Add another 1-3 on top of the two we already had this morning and it ends up being a decent 24 hour period.

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