weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Heres the funny part..you thought last night looked good for CT for banding,and the overall set up really didn’t look good at all on modeling besides the banding signal, which never materialized. Tomorrow looks much better and different on modeling, and you think it looks worse? You’re the MET..but this looks way different than today, but you’re the pro, not me. The 500mb pattern is quite similar...very flat and fast (in fact the flow is even faster tonight overall (Tonight: left: last night: right) Here is GFS tonight for Monday morning vs last night 700 looks similar and in fact models had 700 low developing around eastern MA. Doesn't look to happen Monday (obviously not always needed, but helpful). Biggest difference I see is the 850 inflow with a much stronger jet (like Scott mentioned) and closed off low but that looks to be way south to benefit CT. Looks to benefit more of RI/SE MA. All the best fronto/VV's also scrape southern CT and eastern areas. And tomorrow could very well present the same issues with convection negatively influencing things...that I downplayed yesterday, but can't do that tomorrow when it's obvious there will be even more convection at play here. In CT I think we're relying on intense WAA and some piece of vort to move overhead (like the NAM is showing). Otherwise to me it looks like all the best lifting and forcing and heaviest snow hit southern CT, RI, and into SE MA. Unless there is something I'm totally missing here...what would allow for this to definitively track farther north and west than what happened last night? What is the key piece saying that will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Sipping crown watching the euro roll....maybe for the last time this winter given dst coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The 500mb pattern is quite similar...very flat and fast (in fact the flow is even faster tonight overall (Tonight: left: last night: right) Here is GFS tonight for Monday morning vs last night 700 looks similar and in fact models had 700 low developing around eastern MA. Doesn't look to happen Monday (obviously not always needed, but helpful). Biggest difference I see is the 850 inflow with a much stronger jet (like Scott mentioned) and closed off low but that looks to be way south to benefit CT. Looks to benefit more of RI/SE MA. All the best fronto/VV's also scrape southern CT and eastern areas. And tomorrow could very well present the same issues with convection negatively influencing things...that I downplayed yesterday, but can't do that tomorrow when it's obvious there will be even more convection at play here. In CT I think we're relying on intense WAA and some piece of vort to move overhead (like the NAM is showing). Otherwise to me it looks like all the best lifting and forcing and heaviest snow hit southern CT, RI, and into SE MA. Unless there is something I'm totally missing here...what would allow for this to definitively track farther north and west than what happened last night? What is the key piece saying that will happen? Well, I hope you’re right. The amped trend tonight is leaving the coast down here sweating a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Sipping crown watching the euro roll....maybe for the last time this winter given dst coming. I’m just happy i95 finally has a storm to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I definitely was on the low end and pretty bearish for this last storm but this time seem to be on the higher end of things. Everything i've seen tonight including model trends, lift in the DGZ, FGEN, surface track and intensity looks significantly better than last storm. May have to amend this tomorrow for a final call but this is my thoughts for now. Goodnight everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 EC looks a hair slower, otherwise really not much change from 18Z, mostly just noise imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Well, I hope you’re right. The amped trend tonight is leaving the coast down here sweating a little. Unless that shortwave pushing in from Canada has a greater interaction with the s/w driving from the southwest I don’t see how it can really amplify in this flow (this is where I may be wrong perhaps). I switched to mobile now and tougher to analyze, but it seems like the 0z euro has a greater interaction and yields this being more amped...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 0z Euro definitely looks less amped to me... I was expecting it to take this step towards GFS for reasons I listed earlier I'm in agreement with Wiz... the list of red flags I posted earlier is pretty much the same What this system does have going for it (vs. Friday) is more robust shortwave energy and a better shaped trough, so we'll see if that can overcome the negatives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Closes 850 12z Monday... good banding signature roughly northeast MA to Worcester, so the 6-10 area would extend beyond indicated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 hours ago, tiger_deF said: Oh true, guess I'm trying to see who's on late night crew now that the younguns are in bed Ironic because I'm 16 and easily in the bottom 1 percentile of age according to the survey The scales tip older. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Closes 850 12z Monday... good banding signature roughly northeast MA to Worcester, so the 6-10 area would extend beyond indicated Isn't most of the precip over by 12z Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Isn't most of the precip over by 12z Monday? I'd say more mid morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Isn't most of the precip over by 12z Monday? Best rates per Euro for that NEMA-Worcester area would be ~8z-11z as 850 low slides southeast of CC I can only see h850 at 6 hour intervals (6z and 12z), but I suspect it closes and is well located before 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Yeah for eastern SNE, verbatim 0z Euro precipitation timeframe is ~3z-14z, so ending mid-morning as Ray said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yeah for eastern SNE, verbatim 0z Euro precipitation timeframe is ~3z-14z, so ending mid-morning as Ray said Yeah I see that now. Thanks I'm not sure what the 18z Euro did compared to the 12z but comparing this run with the 12z run from earlier, it really cut back on the QPF everywhere. I don't have paid access that has great details so I'm going off of Maue's site. I guess that's going to happen if it's less amped, therefore less precip but it's now drier than the GFS. Go figure lol. Still a solid storm though. I'll gladly take my 0.6-0.8 inches of frozen precip and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 EVERYONE in here loves the 0z’s..... And the FOOKING NWS after being SO bullish the past 4 days on this storm... DOWNGRADES the storm to 5-7, with 8’s on the map. Wow. Just WOW. How has this board been SO Opposite with the NWS this weekend in 2 storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6z GFS coming in with a better precip shield and a tick up in QPF on the NW flank, with the low exiting off AC versus Virginia Beach on the 0z run, nice to see. Hopefully this holds or continues to ramp up throughout today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, WeatherX said: 6z GFS coming in with a better precip shield and a tick up in QPF on the NW flank......nice to see. Hopefully this holds or continues to ramp up throughout today's runs. Pretty close to Hippy's ACK track. Snow map tossed far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Pretty close to Hippy's ACK track. Yeah it goes from just SE of AC to right over ACK, about as good as you can get for the majority of the snow addicts here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: we take. lol where are you now? I feel like a couple weeks ago you'd hate this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Best looking system of the season for the I-95 corridor. Follow the interstate on the EPS, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, WeatherX said: Yeah it goes from just SE of AC to right over ACK, about as good as you can get for the majority of the snow addicts here Several ensemble members at 00z had shown the low over ACK, perhaps even tickling a little closer to the Caee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: lol where are you now? I feel like a couple weeks ago you'd hate this map. Damn straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Damn straight. So where do you live now again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: So where do you live now again? 1 mile east of ORH, but lower (only 650'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Several ensemble members at 00z had shown the low over ACK, perhaps even tickling a little closer to the Caee. Virtually all the EPS members go right over ACK which lends confidence in this almost being a lock at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: 1 mile east of ORH, but lower (only 650'). Ah, the fringes of the forum lose another . You now get to share the hits and misses with the masses. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Over ACK, does that more mixed precip for the coast??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6-10 for 90% of SNE seems like a great call. 3-6 for NW Mass up into C NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.