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WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

For what little it is worth the long range HRRR has the mix line further south than any other guidance. I’m hugging it.

How far south?  To CHO?

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Actually the HRRR shows what psuhoffman really dreads... it's a weak, dry system. For areas west of 95, the 18z HRRR has under 0.4" of QPF through 11pm tomorrow night.

But it's so far out on a questionable model that it doesn't really matter at this point. 

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55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

8” would be my biggest snowfall of the season so I’ll abscond. 

I’m still leaning 4-6” here. 

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Actually the HRRR shows what psuhoffman really dreads... it's a weak, dry system. For areas west of 95, the 18z HRRR has under 0.4" of QPF through 11pm tomorrow night.
But it's so far out on a questionable model that it doesn't really matter at this point. 
The hrrr 18 hours out is like the gfs at 384
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1 hour ago, Fozz said:

I think you're good for 4-8". Probably 3-6" down my way.

Last I heard, the NWS had my area(Southeast Harford) under a Winter Weather Advisory, for 1-3".  Has that been upgraded to a WSW? 

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Just now, Ji said:

The hrrr 18 hours out is like the gfs at 384

Yeah, I'm not worried at all that far out. I'm mainly tracking its rain/snow line since that can give a decent signal on where it sets up. Tomorrow it should have a better idea.

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5 minutes ago, Danajames said:

Last I heard, the NWS had my area(Southeast Harford) under a Winter Weather Advisory, for 1-3".  Has that been upgraded to a WSW? 

Nope. If you're in Harford county then you want to be north and west of 95 for the good stuff.

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I gave up watching the HRRR during snowstorms, it's the best way to drive yourself crazy.

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:
19 minutes ago, Fozz said:
Actually the HRRR shows what psuhoffman really dreads... it's a weak, dry system. For areas west of 95, the 18z HRRR has under 0.4" of QPF through 11pm tomorrow night.
But it's so far out on a questionable model that it doesn't really matter at this point. 

The hrrr 18 hours out is like the gfs at 384

It’s that good?! I was thinking it was more like the CRAS at range lol

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I gave up watching the HRRR during snowstorms, it's the best way to drive yourself crazy.
Only thing worse is looking at radar...which shows the back end coming thru before the front end starts
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Those maps from CWG are my favorite. And I get it. I would do the same thing. It’s just classic. The “boom” if we are wrong and “bust” if we are wrong maps are great. Just symbolizes life in the 95 corridor. 

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25 minutes ago, Ji said:

Let's hope this storm produces and we can move on and pretend this winter never happened

See you Monday at 12z

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9 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Those maps from CWG are my favorite. And I get it. I would do the same thing. It’s just classic. The “boom” if we are wrong and “bust” if we are wrong maps are great. Just symbolizes life in the 95 corridor. 

I just look at their main numbers.

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4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

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Looks like it shifted south 10 miles? I wouldn't care so much normally but being on the razor's edge makes micro-analyzing fun

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5 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Looks like it shifted south 10 miles? I wouldn't care so much normally but being on the razor's edge makes micro-analyzing fun

Yeah it's a slight shift but a welcome one for me since it makes a huge difference up my way. The 12z run made me nervous, but this one looks pretty good for just about everyone north of 70.

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6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yeah it's a slight shift but a welcome one for me since it makes a huge difference up my way. The 12z run made me nervous, but this one looks pretty good for just about everyone north of 70.

This is going to be crazy fun watching. It is going to give us ulcers tomorrow. We are going to be watching the temps like a hawk. We are either going to win/lose big. 

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

This is going to be crazy fun watching. It is going to give us ulcers tomorrow. We are going to be watching the temps like a hawk. We are either going to win/lose big. 

Many are going to win BIG. Bank on it. Parrs Ridge is going to get totally crushed.

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