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WxUSAF

March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance

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41 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

you guys need to get your heads out of your yards

Easy to say when your yard ended up with 5" in the last event and almost a foot in the mid-January storm. Not everyone is in your boat.

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

If your expectations are zero seems to me you wont be disappointed 

I'm expecting a coating to an inch so not much room for disappointment.

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2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Easy to say when your yard ended up with 5" in the last event and almost a foot in the mid-January storm. Not everyone is in your boat.

You guys act like there haven't been winters or storms where our area gets screwed...its not on purpose...I promise 

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

You guys act like there haven't been winters or storms where our area gets screwed...its not on purpose...I promise 

I know last year was pretty bad for your area, and I was mostly sympathetic.

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21 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Thanks for the advice from an area that has pretty much jacked and maximized every chance this year. There is a HUGE part of the forum where that has not happened. At all. And the last storm DID underperform with regard to the modeled QPF - the spigot turned off at noon when that unmodeled dry slot worked in. 

That's not the point at all. I said storms are wetter. That can be true even if you don't get snow.

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9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It performed fine snow-wise, but the point the poster made about there being no storms drier than anticipated in ages needed to be called out when the last storm was basically half the qpf models showed.

Except the storm was wet as heck so what are you talking about?

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You guys act like there haven't been winters or storms where our area gets screwed...its not on purpose...I promise 

Like last winter, for example.

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Just now, Jandurin said:

Except the storm was wet as heck so what are you talking about?

It wasn't. The point was made that no storms have been drier than expected in ages. When all models give you far more qpf than you receive, that is drier than expected. If models showed you were going to get six inches of rain and you got four, that's a very wet storm but it's still drier than expected. I don't know why this is such a hard concept to understand, but I'm just going to drop it now because it's not really on topic and it's dumb and meaningless.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

It wasn't. The point was made that no storms have been drier than expected in ages. When all models give you far more qpf than you receive, that is drier than expected. If models showed you were going to get six inches of rain and you got four, that's a very wet storm but it's still drier than expected. I don't know why this is such a hard concept to understand, but I'm just going to drop it now because it's not really on topic and it's dumb and meaningless.

lol you really can't think of areas that aren't your backyard can you

they had flood warnings i'm pretty sure in the south

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17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You guys act like there haven't been winters or storms where our area gets screwed...its not on purpose...I promise 

There is no question - but I would hope to god that anyone that jacked in any given year isn't lecturing parts of the area that are getting boned on how "the area" as a whole is doing.

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7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

There is no question - but I would hope to god that anyone that jacked in any given year isn't lecturing parts of the area that are getting boned on how "the area" as a whole is doing.

Agree but that's not what is happening...the negative Nellie's are poo pooing the chances basically because they've been boned so far. My guess is they are just that way in general but especially when they dont jackpot. It's not a new thing on the board though...plus I like picking scabs

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North of EZF into most of Md is a little over .3 qpf.  Temps look fine

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Just now, LP08 said:

North of EZF into most of Md is a little over .3 qpf.  Temps look fine

NAM on an island and Euro/GFS say what snow.  All is right again with the world lol

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Here's a question for you.  Why does the NAM have a separate max over our area.  It's not related to a jet streak.   The low is well to the south as is the precip associated with the low.  The vort is a meager looking thing arguing for a flat look.  An inquiring mind would like to know. 

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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

Here's a question for you.  Why does the NAM have a separate max over our area.  It's not related to a jet streak.   The low is well to the south as is the precip associated with the low.  The vort is a meager looking thing arguing for a flat look.  An inquiring mind would like to know. 

I am certainly not someone in the know but it seems to max some frontogenesis over the area for a few hours.  It’s probably wrong as you stated with the main forcing well south.  

 

Always good to to see you pop in Wes

20BF8728-656C-4CE4-9A23-808522104A48.png

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2 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Here's a question for you.  Why does the NAM have a separate max over our area.  It's not related to a jet streak.   The low is well to the south as is the precip associated with the low.  The vort is a meager looking thing arguing for a flat look.  An inquiring mind would like to know. 

 NAM has some very good 850 mb speed convergence with a modest southerly jet.    The previous wetter runs of the GFS had the similar jet structure, but overnight runs have shown a weaker and more veered low level jet.

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4 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Here's a question for you.  Why does the NAM have a separate max over our area.  It's not related to a jet streak.   The low is well to the south as is the precip associated with the low.  The vort is a meager looking thing arguing for a flat look.  An inquiring mind would like to know. 

Because it cares about us?

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Just now, LP08 said:

I am certainly not someone in the know but it seems to max some frontogenesis over the area for a few hours.  It’s probably wrong as you stated with the main forcing well south.  

 

Always good to to see you pop in Wes

20BF8728-656C-4CE4-9A23-808522104A48.png

Least that explains it. 

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46 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

lol you really can't think of areas that aren't your backyard can you

they had flood warnings i'm pretty sure in the south

Why would we care about flood warnings in the south? We’re talking about the modeled QPF in this forum. Real QPF was less than modeled. That’s the only point. Let’s move on now 

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can someone point me to the thread about the friday snow chances? i seem to have stumbled into banter

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Wow, Euro says what storm?

this is not a wow either way... its a 1-3" MAYBE slightly more if it maxes out kind of thing, very weak wave, not that much amplification, so the difference between the guidance is only between 2" and nothing....  that isn't that big a deal.  It's not like some are showing 6" and some nothing.  It's a very marginal borderline situation and so a slight difference matters between some snow and nada but I don't consider either option a wow.

1 hour ago, Jandurin said:

you guys need to get your heads out of your yards

The people in the northeastern 1/3 of this forum could say the same thing to you.  You are evaluating the "pattern" of this winter based solely on the results at your specific location and then getting pissy with people who point out they have not had those same results.  You are using meso scale results to make broad general statements about the pattern.  

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

This thread is full of the under performer areas and posters who have a history of negativity...uh...I mean keeping it real posts. I'm enjoying my Tuesday already. Topper was right 

There were like 2 posts pointing out the euro was bad at 6z and then the thread went off the rails when people started arguing over whether there has been a wet bias on the guidance this year and the problem is both sides are saying something true OF THEIR REGIONS ONLY!!!!  The DC area has been the epicenter of +snowfall anomalies this winter on the whole east coast.  And in general snowfall events have trended wet there...but for anyone from Baltimore northeast that is NOT TRUE.  There has been a crazy sharp northern cutoff on a lot of these storms and up here we have tended to be dryer then guidance on a lot of them.  Why this turned into some pissy argument is beyond me.  

46 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You guys act like there haven't been winters or storms where our area gets screwed...its not on purpose...I promise 

I am frustrated by my own results but I don't have any issues with the DC area and I am genuinely happy for you and don't want to take away any of your snow...I just wish I was sharing in the "win" this year that is all.  And last winter was the exact opposite with my area reaching median snowfall while places in NW VA were having an absolutely awful winter...and I was very sympathetic and understood why they were so negative and upset with the winter.  I did take issue with people like MDECOY who was having (like me) a pretty good snowfall winter and was still debbing like it was awwful and acting like a bigger baby than the people in VA who had a legit reason to be acting that way.  

I totally understand the view of both sides...  If I had 50" right now (which is about where I would be if I was having the same year you are wrt climo) I would probably be in a pretty good mood about it and hearing all the debbing and whining from people in less fortunate locations would get annoying.  So I get it.  At the same time I am in the area that is not having a very good year...(could change with one big hit) and so I sympathize with the people who are frustrated that just about every storm has jacked just to our south and left us fringed for the most part.  Its frustrating...for both sides.  

41 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Except the storm was wet as heck so what are you talking about?

the storm was not wetter than guidance suggested, it was dryer.  You can keep saying it was wet but that is not backed up by facts.  Just about our entire region ended up below the qpf forecast.  The northern half significantly so but even down by DCA it busted low on qpf.  

 

THIS IS SILLY!!!!!!

The last storm was dryer then projected.  A lot of other ones were wetter...around DC.  Dryer Baltimore north.  It is what it is.  We are in a new pattern, during a time of year when often we get different results than the prominent winter pattern due to changing wavelengths and seasons, and so I am not sure applying seasonal trends really matters as much now anyways.  

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21 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Here's a question for you.  Why does the NAM have a separate max over our area.  It's not related to a jet streak.   The low is well to the south as is the precip associated with the low.  The vort is a meager looking thing arguing for a flat look.  An inquiring mind would like to know. 

Wes, it sounds like you don't believe the NAM.  I could be wrong though.  

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14 minutes ago, high risk said:

 NAM has some very good 850 mb speed convergence with a modest southerly jet.    The previous wetter runs of the GFS had the similar jet structure, but overnight runs have shown a weaker and more veered low level jet.

Good point.  I still have a hard time buying it.  I could see 0.10" liquid but 0.30" is hard to believe. It could be right, but I'd bet against it. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Wes, it sounds like you don't believe the NAM.  I could be wrong though.  

If the Euro comes back wet, then I'd buy give it more credence.  Without the 0.30" liquid, I doubt the temps would be that cold. 

 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The people in the northeastern 1/3 of this forum could say the same thing to you.  You are evaluating the "pattern" of this winter based solely on the results at your specific location and then getting pissy with people who point out they have not had those same results.  You are using meso scale results to make broad general statements about the pattern.  

I wasn't pissy and you couldn't say that about me because that's not at all what I was saying. All I said is I don't remember a single storm getting "drier" as it came in, whether it hit us or not.

Fin. Final. Stop putting words into my mouth.

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12z ICON appears to have shifted the rain/snow line south in line with the NAM for what it is worth.  An inch or two is an inch or two.....take what we can get on the first day of meteorological spring!

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