Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,341
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    snow01
    Newest Member
    snow01
    Joined
AppsRunner

Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

Recommended Posts

We'll see what the Euro does but so far, we are setting up the American vs foreign model battle with the GEM and UKMET taking a farther south track.

This is the same storm that is currently affecting the Pacific northwest, so there is partial RAOB sampling.  Evidently not enough.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

..and the beat goes on for Lwr Lakes (insert face palm)

lol the storm at the end of the week looks to go even further NW. non-stop rain storms for the lower lakes to end out winter....yikes 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Antecedent arctic airmass and fact storm will occlude relatively quickly means even with a GFS track, a decent front-end thump for areas further east. 

That being said, looks like the GFS may be wrapping the sfc low too far NW based on H5 s/w axis. Seems like it would more likely to be over NE IN/NW OH vs MKE at 102.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Between the 72 and 96 hour maps, the surface low goes from southwest Missouri toward St. Louis and then south of Kankakee.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Chinook said:

Latest Euro has lots of snowfall for northern Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota

x5apFrX.png

Latest is about 1.3'' for southern MN (0.2 for Sunday). That'll be around 18''+ of snow. Closing in on records.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020900_111_521_323.thumb.png.b663221368fef2d5ead93ade68a2bc61.png

This month is starting to turn into December 2010 for Minnesota. Minneapolis has received 10.4 so for this month. 26.5'' is the record. There's this system and another one behind it. Some places will have more than 2.5' of snow on the ground. I'm starting to worry about spring flooding.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Going in to this winter I was sweating another congrats, DTX.    El Nino, +PNA   AO favoring the east, SE Trend alive and one could go on with winters prior trends. Nice to get a wrench thrown to humble. 

2 events in 84 hrs. So much uncertainty yet.  This is a new one.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GRR riding the Euro's SE trend pretty hard for those in the the southern lakes area.

As for our storm on Tuesday... this is a system that went over
the top of the large upper ridge over Alaska and dove south to
just off the west coast of the Pacific Northwest. There is yet a
strong system trailing it that will boot this system quickly east.
As that system moves into the front side of the longwave trough,
it will go negative tilt at upper levels and deepen rapidly as it
comes out of the southern Plains toward Michigan. The ECMWF has
trended farther south and east with each model run since the 7th
00z. This would suggest a more southern track for this system and
would favor less freezing rain if this trend continues. It will be
a high QPF event as there is around an inch of precipitable water
feeding it. We will continue to monitor this system. I could see
winter headlines for this system by Monday.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Izzi from LOT says Euro ensembles aren't as south as operational so not sure if the southward trend is believable 

MKE take

The operational 00Z GFS
is furthest north, taking the 850 low across central Wisconsin.
The ECMWF, on the other hand, takes the low across Chicago, which
is an ideal track for a winter storm across southern Wisconsin.
Between these two is the GFS Ensemble mean, which lends some
credence to a more southerly track. Either way, winds will
increase considerably heading into Tuesday morning, as the low
deepens quite rapidly.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^

The trend has been for all of these storms to track over or just north of Chicago. Until you see a marked change in the pattern that's probably the way to go. Hope here is there is enough residual cold air to get some front end WAA snows prior to the change to Ice/Rain.  And than a change that starts to get these storms tracking through the O/V from mid February-Mid March. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Baum said:

^

The trend has been for all of these storms to track over or just north of Chicago. Until you see a marked change in the pattern that's probably the way to go. Hope here is there is enough residual cold air to get some front end WAA snows prior to the change to Ice/Rain.  And than a change that starts to get these storms tracking through the O/V from mid February-Mid March. 

I'm not sold yet on the change to a more southern track. If anything I think were seeing the pattern that winter will end with. Its going to be a roller coaster but definitely not boring. As of right now 1" light snow sunday, 2-4" of snow Tuesday followed by rain, 50s and rain Friday. 

 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Frog Town said:

GRR riding the Euro's SE trend pretty hard for those in the the southern lakes area.

As for our storm on Tuesday... this is a system that went over
the top of the large upper ridge over Alaska and dove south to
just off the west coast of the Pacific Northwest. There is yet a
strong system trailing it that will boot this system quickly east.
As that system moves into the front side of the longwave trough,
it will go negative tilt at upper levels and deepen rapidly as it
comes out of the southern Plains toward Michigan. The ECMWF has
trended farther south and east with each model run since the 7th
00z. This would suggest a more southern track for this system and
would favor less freezing rain if this trend continues. It will be
a high QPF event as there is around an inch of precipitable water
feeding it. We will continue to monitor this system. I could see
winter headlines for this system by Monday.

If you knew that office, you'd read that as "we're increasingly excited for GR proper, certainly not for anyone south of here wrt  possible headlines"..

Not even here, let alone TOLEDO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z models have pretty much held serve with the american models cutting the low farther west  then the foreign models below is the GFS FV3 

 

81

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^

Bizzarre. If I'm seeing things correct comes E/SE into central Il. and than heads due north?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Baum said:

^

Bizzarre. If I'm seeing things correct comes E/SE into central Il. and than heads due north?

 

Thermal profiles too warm anyways compared to 0Z. Trending towards a small event for Chicago

Screenshot_20190209-122016_Samsung Internet.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×