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Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

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Figured it's worth starting a thread as we're now within a week. Good support for a storm somewhere in the subforum early next week. Euro/GFS/FV3 all point to a potentially significant winter storm, and the euro ensembles have some strong solutions going from the OK panhandle to as far west as MSP and as far east as BUF. 

 

 

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The huge run to run swings the past few days on the operational models show that we won't know much on this system for a few days.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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The first one has a decent chance at front end snow for some that have seen mostly rain. The storm right after it (14-16) might be a bit better for the southern and eastern sub. Way to far away just keeping my eye on that one. 

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At this point the thing I have relatively high confidence in is starting as snow, as there should be enough cold air left behind after that first system.  Then very well could transition to ice and rain, but we'll see.  

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Surface low goes over Chicago on 12z Euro.

haven't seen a precip plot, but thinking that's still a decent hit for us given the movement of the low pressure E/SE out of the plains into W/C Illinois and than heading NE

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14 minutes ago, Baum said:

haven't seen a precip plot, but thinking that's still a decent hit for us given the movement of the low pressure E/SE out of the plains into W/C Illinois and than heading NE

Verbatim for Chicago it's a couple inches on the front end, then ice with perhaps a bit of plain rain, then ending with a few inches of snow.  Much better just north.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Verbatim for Chicago it's a couple inches on the front end, then ice with perhaps a bit of plain rain, then ending with a few inches of snow.  Much better just north.

The NW burbs fare any better or is just north meaning S.WI?

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6 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

The NW burbs fare any better or is just north meaning S.WI?

I mean just north.  For example, most of Lake county IL would be a solid 8-10"+

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This one has a nice moisture feed from the Gulf.  The Sunday system actually helps to prime things a bit.  Obviously going to get a south to north changeover of precip types with time but it could be a nice burst of snow initially in the areas that do warm up. 

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Looking like we see some fresh powder on sunday here, and then an early guess for Tuesday would be snow to mix to rain ending az snow. I will be in the upper peninsula Tuesday, so have my standby snow measurer to let me know how much we got at home while I will be enjoying a UP snowstorm!

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