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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nope. I'm the same way. I never look past any potential. "Punting" the closest storm because you like the next one ends badly like 100% of the time. 

100% of the time? Perhaps 80%...because if the next one DOES work out, then your focus is misplaced! :D Now as far as the Fri-Sat storm...even if it does trend better, the top end of the potential isn't that high, is it? (or is it too early to tell?)

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

100% of the time? Perhaps 80%...because if the next one DOES work out, then your focus is misplaced! :D Now as far as the Fri-Sat storm...even if it does trend better, the top end of the potential isn't that high, is it? (or is it too early to tell?)

No, it's 100% of the time because expectations are too high for the second one. The only reason people punt the first one is because it looks small and they expect a huge hit on the heels. Ok, so maybe not 100% but I'll hold firm at 99%. 

The thing is, our climo generally sucks for big storms but because we get them it skews reality. It's a rare day when expectations are reasonable around here because with any event some random op spits out a big hit and it immediately raises the bar to unrealistic heights that have like a .05% chance of actually happening. If it's not perfect clean cold snow that sticks to every single atom on the ground and doesn't melt for a month it's a terrible event. Amirite?

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No, it's 100% of the time because expectations are too high for the second one. The only reason people punt the first one is because it looks small and they expect a huge hit on the heels. Ok, so maybe not 100% but I'll hold firm at 99%. 

The thing is, our climo generally sucks for big storms but because we get them it skews reality. It's a rare day when expectations are reasonable around here because with any event some random op spits out a big hit and it immediately raises the bar to unrealistic heights that have like a .05% chance of actually happening. If it's not perfect clean cold snow that sticks to every single atom on the ground and doesn't melt for a month it's a terrible event. Amirite?

Preach!

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No, it's 100% of the time because expectations are too high for the second one. The only reason people punt the first one is because it looks small and they expect a huge hit on the heels. Ok, so maybe not 100% but I'll hold firm at 99%. 

The thing is, our climo generally sucks for big storms but because we get them it skews reality. It's a rare day when expectations are reasonable around here because with any event some random op spits out a big hit and it immediately raises the bar to unrealistic heights that have like a .05% chance of actually happening. If it's not perfect clean cold snow that sticks to every single atom on the ground and doesn't melt for a month it's a terrible event. Amirite?

That first part of your comment is the logic I used on my wife.  She bought it.  Who knows who MIGHT have walked into that bar...sucks for him!

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No, it's 100% of the time because expectations are too high for the second one. The only reason people punt the first one is because it looks small and they expect a huge hit on the heels. Ok, so maybe not 100% but I'll hold firm at 99%. 

The thing is, our climo generally sucks for big storms but because we get them it skews reality. It's a rare day when expectations are reasonable around here because with any event some random op spits out a big hit and it immediately raises the bar to unrealistic heights that have like a .05% chance of actually happen. If it's not perfect clean cold snow that sticks to every single atom on the ground and doesn't melt for a month it's a terrible event. Amirite?

As far as that's concerned, for me it's about the overall totals!

And I can understand your overall philosophy of savoring every piece of potential...but I can't get with that if the potential that is closer in time appears not to have much of a top end. (it doesn't, right?) So my reason for punting it isn't just because I have an eye on next week...but because it doesn't look like much (or does it? Could it become something better?) Maybe I am more desperate for the big hit because my totals up here are still below average for the moment. But if the weekend looked more exciting (or if it starts to GET more exciting this week!) I wouldn't punt it.

(Admittedly, I do have a historical bias...because I'm wondering about the repeat of two other winters on our historical records that each had very similar monthly snow totals up to this point...lol)

But I get what you're saying though!

 

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Icon with a 1002 mb lpc at the SC/NC coast/border at hr 120. Temps look iffy but it’s got the coastal idea for weekend deal. 

Indeed verbatim it has nothing for most of us but the idea is living on for anotther day.  Can’t see 850s but temps are near 32 for MYB

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

As far as that's concerned, for me it's about the overall totals!

And I can understand your overall philosophy of savoring every piece of potential...but I can't get with that if the potential that is closer in time appears not to have much of a top end. (it doesn't, right?)

 

We have no idea what the top potential is. It was just "discovered" today. You haven't been tracking like a half insane person for very long but we've had plenty of storms that magically appeared out of nowhere at like d5 and ended up a significant event when there was never even a discussion about before it popped up. My philosophy is that models are incredible tools but there accuracy drops way off with synoptic events from d5+. I try never under or overestimate any potential event because weather is way too complicated and unpredictable. One piece of advice I'll give to anyone who participates in this jacked up and dumb hobby is to never try to look too far down the road whenever possible. We get stuck at d10+ for the sole reason that there is nothing worth discussing before that. We have something worth discussing now and it can have sig impacts on what happens down the line. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

We have no idea what the top potential is. It was just "discovered" today. You haven't been tracking like a half insane person for very long but we've had plenty of storms that magically appeared out of nowhere at like d5 and ended up a significant event when there was never even a discussion about before it popped up. My philosophy is that models are incredible tools but there accuracy drops way off with synoptic events from d5+. I try never under or overestimate any potential event because weather is way too complicated and unpredictable. One piece of advice I'll give to anyone who participates in this jacked up and dumb hobby is to never try to look too far down the road whenever possible. We get stuck at d10+ for the sole reason that there is nothing worth discussing before that. We have something worth discussing now and it can have sig impacts on what happens down the line. 

Good word of advice. This year I literally have only looked at weather models when a threat was 72-96 hours out.

As a result, I haven't been as active here this year, but the hobby became fun again.

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12 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Icon with a 1002 mb lpc at the SC/NC coast/border at hr 120. Temps look iffy but it’s got the coastal idea for weekend deal. 

The ICON's single most valuable addition to the suite is to give the particularly impatient something to look at in between the mesos and the GFS.

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We have no idea what the top potential is. It was just "discovered" today. You haven't been tracking like a half insane person for very long but we've had plenty of storms that magically appeared out of nowhere at like d5 and ended up a significant event when there was never even a discussion about before it popped up. My philosophy is that models are incredible tools but there accuracy drops way off with synoptic events from d5+. I try never under or overestimate any potential event because weather is way too complicated and unpredictable. One piece of advice I'll give to anyone who participates in this jacked up and dumb hobby is to never try to look too far down the road whenever possible. We get stuck at d10+ for the sole reason that there is nothing worth discussing before that. We have something worth discussing now and it can have sig impacts on what happens down the line. 

There were a few odd runs off and on that had a hint of something there. It’s not totally out of nowhere. But it was way down on the radar. 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Whoa my...lots of pieces jumping around here for the weekend! Good luck figuring out the final solution...lol

Don’t like where this run is headed.  Nothing on the weekend.  Follow up looks like dog crap.  Familiar territory but unpleasant.  Will change for sure 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Don’t like where this run is headed.  Nothing on the weekend.  Follow up looks like dog crap.  Familiar territory but unpleasant.  Will change for sure 

Yeah, not a good look but at the same time guidance did a complete 180 for the weekend at a super short lead today. I'm gonna let things evolve for the next couple days. Probably the best thing to do at this point. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Don’t like where this run is headed.  Nothing on the weekend.  Follow up looks like dog crap.  Familiar territory but unpleasant.  Will change for sure 

Doesn't have to be unpleasant if ya scroll through the previous cycles and look at the wild array of solutions! I feel like one of the mental challenges of this is hobby is not letting a bad run in long range get ya down...I think bad runs always fuel worse-case scenario fears, lol

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Doesn't have to be unpleasant if ya scroll through the previous cycles and look at the wild array of solutions! I feel like one of the mental challenges of this is hobby is not letting a bad run in long range get ya down...I think bad runs always fuel worse-case scenario fears, lol

Agree.  But man it’s trying sometimes.  If it was December I wouldn’t shed a tear.  But clock is racing.  

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