CAPE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Ends up 4-8” of pure snow though. The timing is pretty perfect this run with the NS vortices. One in the 50-50 position and another one rotating down behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12 hours of virga with snow at our doorstep though lol. Short range north trend = rekt This assumes the gfs has it right 6 days out... LoLz ...nah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Hmmm... this is actually a really good upper level pattern for a big overrunning hit. Euro is pretty similar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: The GFS is weenietastic. And damn close to a major storm. I agree. If the transfer occurs earlier and if the storm tracks more ENE, it’s big....again something to track. Reality is timing is everything. We can track every index, analog, etc....sometimes you just need a little luck. Be at the right place, at the right time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Is it getting ready to reload for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Here's the euro for the same period. Decent but you can see why it cuts on the euro and slids on the gfs. We've had some really good midrange trends this year with the few events that hit us. It's entirely possible that a trend towards a colder solution with strong confluence ends up being how this goes down. I'm certainly not assuming this is an east cut/west track. We've seen confluence trend too strong in Dec and also strenghten when really needed it leading into our Jan storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, Wonderdog said: Is it getting ready to reload for the weekend? Whose take control of the 18z? Weenie scenario. Has to be 10 inches plus on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It won’t make it past extreme southern KY It wouldn’t be the first time that primary held on too long and screws da pooch here. Sure hope your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Looks like a pretty good thump to dry slot on the FV3 using the ncep maps. Coastal just gets going a tad late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Here's the euro for the same period. Decent but you can see why it cuts on the euro and slids on the gfs. We've had some really good midrange trends this year with the few events that hit us. It's entirely possible that a trend towards a colder solution with strong confluence ends up being how this goes down. I'm certainly not assuming this is an east cut/west track. We've seen confluence trend too strong in Dec and also strenghten when really needed it leading into our Jan storm. I was just thinking how nice it is not to see a brick wall over PA. Obviously it is long a ways out there. But the models locked on to the December disaster pretty early. And never really wavered with where the strongest confluence would set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Here's the euro for the same period. Decent but you can see why it cuts on the euro and slids on the gfs. We've had some really good midrange trends this year with the few events that hit us. It's entirely possible that a trend towards a colder solution with strong confluence ends up being how this goes down. I'm certainly not assuming this is an east cut/west track. We've seen confluence trend too strong in Dec and also strenghten when really needed it leading into our Jan storm. This is eerily similar to the early January trash period...then cold came quickly and we got a mecs without much warning during same time range as proposed storm lol.welcome back 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: This is eerily similar to the early January trash period...then cold came quickly and we got a mecs without much warning during same time range as proposed storm lol.welcome back So you're canceling the first week of march? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the euro for the same period. Decent but you can see why it cuts on the euro and slids on the gfs. We've had some really good midrange trends this year with the few events that hit us. It's entirely possible that a trend towards a colder solution with strong confluence ends up being how this goes down. I'm certainly not assuming this is an east cut/west track. We've seen confluence trend too strong in Dec and also strenghten when really needed it leading into our Jan storm. This is eerily similar to the early January trash period...then cold came quickly and we got a mecs without much warning we've been watching this period for winter weather for like a week already.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 So you're canceling the first week of march?Sure. Well be in phase 6 again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 we've been watching this period for winter weather for like a week already....Just work with me here:) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the euro for the same period. Decent but you can see why it cuts on the euro and slids on the gfs. We've had some really good midrange trends this year with the few events that hit us. It's entirely possible that a trend towards a colder solution with strong confluence ends up being how this goes down. I'm certainly not assuming this is an east cut/west track. We've seen confluence trend too strong in Dec and also strenghten when really needed it leading into our Jan storm. This is eerily similar to the early January trash period...then cold came quickly and we got a mecs without much warning That oddball W-E oriented ridge poking in off the pac is creating the confluence stacked up in eastern canada. Technically it's a block but wtf do you call it? I can't recall seeing such a jacked up set of features creating compressed flow. At least we do "weird and jacked up" pretty well around here. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: we've been watching this period for winter weather for like a week already.... Just work with me here:) It's actually interesting if you toggle back to some of the runs from Friday/Saturday. There's some similarities to what the 18z just spit out. HP's to the north give opportunity for long range tracking of threats. Some of our big storms were from a long way out...I could continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 One thing that interests me is the models have picked up on CAD really early with this. They usually trend colder as we approach these type of setups. But the cold being modeled already is legit. Would be so nice to actually have a decent HP in good position for once. It is really pumping in the cold air aloft before we get hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 That oddball W-E oriented ridge poking in off the pac is creating the confluence stacked up in eastern canada. Technically it's a block but wtf do you call it? I can't recall seeing such a jacked up set of features creating compressed flow. At least we do "weird and jacked up" pretty well around here. LolWe dont so complex well but we do convoluted well. This one has simple options lol...I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That oddball W-E oriented ridge poking in off the pac is creating the confluence stacked up in eastern canada. Technically it's a block but wtf do you call it? I can't recall seeing such a jacked up set of features creating compressed flow. At least we do "weird and jacked up" pretty well around here. Lol I thought that too. Very unusual look. I wont question it though because it giveth us a 1042 mb HP, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Looking at the Kuchera (wxbell) and we see some really good ratios. Looking in the ballpark of 15-1 DC and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 We have done a great job timing precip with cold this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, MD Snow said: we've been watching this period for winter weather for like a week already.... True but it's morphing into something that didn't have much warning or ens support. I agree with Ji. If we luck our way into a big event the ensembles will once again have been useless similar to the big Jan storm. Ops are leading the way right now. Eps and gefs have been showing limited potential since this window has popped up. In the 13 years I've been regularly playing this game I've never seen global ensembles and long range forecasters look this terrible. So bad that we'd have been far better off not having access to either. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Looking at the Kuchera (wxbell) and we see some really good ratios. Looking in the ballpark of 15-1 DC and north This helps 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: We have done a great job timing precip with cold this year. Doesn't match the weekend rule, but it fits the week after torch rule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: We have done a great job timing precip with cold this year. Don't get to say that too often, lol But as Bob has mentioned a few times--this year, despite the crappier periods...the few windows we have had we've maximized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: True but it's morphing into something that didn't have much warning or ens support. I agree with Ji. If we luck our way into a big event the ensembles will once again have been useless similar to the big Jan storm. Ops are leading the way right now. Eps and gefs have been showing limited potential since this window has popped up. In the 13 years I've been regularly playing this game I've never seen global ensembles and long range forecasters look terrible. So bad that we'd have been far better off not having access to either. I guess sometimes the higher res ops beat multiple low res ens members smoothed into a mean, even in the longer range. Its been a weird winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 @clskinsfan Man, midlevel flow is perfect on those panels. Euro had a great surface CAD setup but the mids were pumping southerly due to less confluence and primary punching north. 18z gfs is an unconventional big storm setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: no matter what the pattern...the EPS gives us 3-4 inches through 360 in snowfall mean every run That’s not true. 1-2” is the background bogus fake mean in a shutout pattern that happens from the 10% outliers. 3-4” is average in a typical “it might snow but probably not” and when it’s 5-6” it’s usually a good pattern and we have better than climo odds. Keep in mind that still might only be 40-50% so often it fails even then. Snow means are bad ways to judge ensembles. And that’s just a typical quick rule. And obviously since guidance has sucked at range this year and typically by having a good pattern that wasn’t real the fail rate this year is much worse than average but since some people here don’t know when your kidding let’s not pretend the eps always has 3-4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @clskinsfan Man, midlevel flow is perfect on those panels. Euro had a great surface CAD setup but the mids were pumping southerly due to less confluence and primary punching north. 18z gfs is an unconventional big storm setup. Yep. It would be the perfect progression of the HP. Which is why it is probably wrong :). That 162 panel really shows the upper level cold getting shoved up against the mountains and locked in. Lets hope the GFS is right for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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