psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, Ji said: GEFS wants to go to Phase 8 at a pretty high amplitude That’s why the gefs looks good at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I didnt get what he was saying either. What i do like seeing is that animation is a sustained LP in the Aleutian region throughout the run. We may finally get a decent ridge position if it is right. that was partly my take as well. I'd roll w/ split flow and ridge axis like that in feb any time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: GEFS wants to go to Phase 8 at a pretty high amplitude Euro ain’t no slouch either. Love how it’s amolify into 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think he was saying if it trends towards more amplified northern jet. Not that it’s going to or is there. then we would need your elusive NAO. Can you work on that a little more please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: GEFS wants to go to Phase 8 at a pretty high amplitude What I like about that is its "trip" to Phase 6 is much shorter than yesterday's run which almost got it into Phase 5 territory. It trended to the Euro in the short term depiction for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Is the "ECMM" on the MJO page the bias corrected version? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro ain’t no slouch either. Love how it’s amolify into 1. thats yesterdays EURO:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Anyone have the link to h5 composites for the mjo by enso? Lost them when I switched phones. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: thats yesterdays EURO:) Lol today's didn’t update yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Euro monthly updated though for some reason. Looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 this is Phase 1 for Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: this is Phase 1 for Feb Thanks. Do you have the link to that site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro monthly updated though for some reason. Looks ok The CFSv2 does well with the MJO forecasts in genera , so this should inspire some confidence. @psuhoffman what would be very valuable is to see what the NAO has done in Feb months in which the MJO reaches phases 8 and 1 in a high orbit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I'm considering taking my shovel to the shop for a tune up. That covers my analysis in one sentence. 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm considering taking my shovel to the shop for a tune up. That covers my analysis in one sentence. I’m still looking at guidance because habit but I’m simplifying my expectations and optimism to the fact the soi is about to crash and the mjo is going to cold phases at high amplitude. If that doesn’t work out oh well but history says it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm considering taking my shovel to the shop for a tune up. That covers my analysis in one sentence. This is a good week for that! Just get it back by Monday, I’m assuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anyone have the link to h5 composites for the mjo by enso? Lost them when I switched phones. Thanks https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Cold and snowy month is looking likely with the mjo going into phase 8. GfS and gfs para show that also the euro showed some good snows coming up next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm considering taking my shovel to the shop for a tune up. That covers my analysis in one sentence. Nuff said pal. Looking forward to you coming out of your slumber next week. Rest up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Cold and snowy month is looking likely with the mjo going into phase 8. GfS and gfs para show that also the euro showed some good snows coming up next week Colder and POTENTIALLY snowier FYP Yeah, it looks like we may be starting to see our way outta this mess. Climo is still on our side, and it doesnt take too much going right for better opps. Lets get the pac right and see what we can do w/ it as this cutter stuff has been the death of what could have been a great period. I'll take JB's split flow and zonalish look and see what we can gin up from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl Thanks. There used to be a site that had them saved by enso. Can’t find it. Maybe it’s gone. How do you set those plots by mjo? I don’t see it as an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: Colder and POTENTIALLY snowier FYP Yeah, it looks like we may be starting to see our way outta this mess. Climo is still on our side, and it doesnt take too much going right for better opps. Lets get the pac right and see what we can do w/ it as this cutter stuff has been the death of what could have been a great period. I'll take JB's split flow and zonalish look and see what we can gin up from there. I’d watch that wave Sunday night also for a 1-3 incher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 @psuhoffman watch the JB video it has value . LOL I say that about 3 times per year. 80 % value 20 % hype , overall I like the update. Shows the phase 8 in Feb with a high amp. To me those higher orbits look like they have more high impact snowfall potential , where phase 8 closer to a low orbit have very cold but maybe not as stormy ? Make your own assumptions after looking at a few samples i the video. and yes the data set is a few, but overall the message has value. Cold coming. snow yeah, thats coming too as long as we get the looks the models show for the MJO and the decline in the SOI due to the complete reversal of pressure patterns in the far Westerm Pac. And wow, I forgot that in the SOI dive of Jan 2009 it went to minus 50's to -74 . Thats nuts ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m still looking at guidance because habit but I’m simplifying my expectations and optimism to the fact the soi is about to crash and the mjo is going to cold phases at high amplitude. If that doesn’t work out oh well but history says it will. yeah thats pleny enough reason for guarded optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks. There used to be a site that had them saved by enso. Can’t find it. Maybe it’s gone. How do you set those plots by mjo? I don’t see it as an option. I forget if MJO option is there, but I've played around w/ it infrequently as I'm not quite the data collection guru that some of you are. Reanalysis is not my strong suit (if I even have a strong suit). I have anther site at home that you can also plug in diff. variables/years etc. Will see if I can drum it up for you tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I’d watch that wave Sunday night also for a 1-3 incher yeah, its been showing up w/ some consistancy on most majors, so its something to keep an eye on. Looks like both of our regions might be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 59 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Cold and snowy month is looking likely with the mjo going into phase 8. GfS and gfs para show that also the euro showed some good snows coming up next week Didn't you make a pointless post yesterday about no snow for south of NYC rest of winter (in a Mid-Atlantic forum no less)? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts