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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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Big change at h5 on 0z CMC from 12z.  High to the north is now SE of James Bay and stronger at 1042 mb vs 1034 mb over N ME/NH.  That allows the system to come in closer with more qpf.  It is the CMC, but still.

gem_z500_mslp_us_20.pnggem_z500_mslp_us_18.png

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Parts of the Mid-Atlantic could pick up a few inches with the 1st wave as per the GGEM/Nam. 

Crazy to think those places are doing much better than a good chunk of this area. 

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lol.....I love how every GFS model run I've checked the past few days has a screw you feature for every threat....its ridiculous and totality not surprising for this completely awful winter.....omg....JFC

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The run to run continuity on the models is the worst I've ever seen. 

The difference between tonight's Euro and the 12z Euro is staggering. Idk what's going on.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Parts of the Mid-Atlantic could pick up a few inches with the 1st wave as per the GGEM/Nam. 

Crazy to think those places are doing much better than a good chunk of this area. 

We've gotten a lot of 1-2" and then over to rain. As of the 18z gfs I was looking at 3inches and then rain in SEPA Tues night. And 3-5inches for friday/sat.  Now with the 00z gfs I'm looking at 1 inches for both of those and a lot of rain.  I'm also a little too far north for the sunday night system.  The 00z nam has that dropping up to 5 inches on Cape may although that seems a little aggressive. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The run to run continuity on the models is the worst I've ever seen. 

The difference between tonight's Euro and the 12z Euro is staggering. Idk what's going on.

If I had to hazard a guess, it's because models are struggling with how to handle the anticyclonic wave breaking event over western North America, and how the resulting cut off low evolves. 

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

If I had to hazard a guess, it's because models are struggling with how to handle the anticyclonic wave breaking event over western North America, and how the resulting cut off low evolves. 

I actually tweeted about this. I've never seen the EPS have such massive differences starting at day 5. Differences from the previous run that is. Holy cow. But, the end result is a good look so we take?

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually tweeted about this. I've never seen the EPS have such massive differences starting at day 5. Differences from the previous run that is. Holy cow. But, the end result is a good look so we take?

In three weeks the only thing I want to take is a trip to the driving range.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Liking the high position on the guidance right now. #manhigh. Good setup for at least a thump anyways.

Guidance is in good agreement right now. So what could go wrong?

I suspect that will wobble around a bit in guidance as the upper low out west changes subtly run to run. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Guidance is in good agreement right now. So what could go wrong?

I suspect that will wobble around a bit in guidance as the upper low out west changes subtly run to run. 

I'd like to see a quicker coastal develop, but given it appears the main s/w probably won't have a huge influence on coastal development, we'll take what we can get for now.

 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'd like to see a quicker coastal develop, but given it appears the main s/w probably won't have a huge influence on coastal development, we'll take what we can get for now.

 

Day 6 ensemble sensitivity was like a 15 mb variance in SLP with the primary in the Great Lakes (from the 12z runs). So definitely wide goalposts on the surface low right now.

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7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

If you really believe Boston only had 1.1 inches of snow IDK what to say

As John Fogarty once wrote:  I know it's true, oh so true, because I saw it on TV.

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

a9764e91445d4fe9e7c6aed955fb7a41.gif

I can only imagine how long it took you to find that....

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7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

As John Fogarty once wrote:  I know it's true, oh so true, because I saw it on TV.

I can only imagine how long it took you to find that....

The shift is almost over, I'm kind of out of things to do...;)

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