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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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32 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This winter is garabge. So many events have took turns for the worst.

C'mon man...you just said yesterday it's the best pattern yet...????  You giving up now, on a day 7 OP Run lol.  

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18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Deflated weenies left and right.  Talk to your doctor-there are treatments...

Just tell the doctor you having WD issues, (weenie deflation) He will give you a script for the pkg store, I think you can get him to write it in a handle form.

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42 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Regression.  Our weather "market corrections" have to happen at some point in time. 

You're a Global Warming Weenie aren't you....they all think this last decade and a half is the new norm...so there should be no regression if you believe the climate has changed????  

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8 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

12z EPS look a little more robust for the early week opportunity. 

Not horrendous probs at a week out.

 

eps_snow_3_neng_29.png

No, not terrible for a week out but going by this winters trend, this will end up a NNE and/or Maine special and if we add in our luck, it'll be a Montreal-Quebec City special by the weekend.

This winter sucks!!!

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Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

No, not terrible for a week out but going by this winters trend, this will end up a NNE and/or Maine special and if we add in our luck, it'll be a Montreal-Quebec City special by the weekend.

This winter sucks!!!

Sure, it might. Roll the dice though and detach the emotions if you can (it's hard to do). Go with probabilities until they are zero! There's always the one after this, etc. 

eps_snow_3_neng_33.png

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Man the Snakebitten nature of the winter is really taking it's toll on most......but it's hard to disagree with that trend of thought currently.  But it is 7 days out too, think that needs to be kept in mind at this point.  

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Man the Snakebitten nature of the winter is really taking it's toll on most......but it's hard to disagree with that trend of thought currently.  But it is 7 days out too, think that needs to be kept in mind at this point.  

Also keep in mind that thus far this winter season when a cutter or rainer has shown 7 days out, it has almost always verified.

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EPS actually looks a lot like 12/16/07....maybe a little colder. You have a storm trying to cut into the lakes with a stout high N of Maine

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3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Also keep in mind that thus far this winter season when a cutter or rainer has shown 7 days out, it has almost always verified.

Yup, that's why I said it's hard to disagree with the trend of thought.    But we know why the cutter is always easier to get than a coastal/or a SWFE...that's been talked about tons here over the years, so that too has to be kept in mind.  But it's Still, 7 days out...

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS actually looks a lot like 12/16/07....maybe a little colder. You have a storm trying to cut into the lakes with a stout high N of Maine

Nice little block too building through Quebec into the SE part of Hudson Bay at 150 hours. Something to watch. Stronger this run.

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4 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Nice little block too building through Quebec into the SE part of Hudson Bay at 150 hours. Something to watch. Stronger this run.

About all we could ask for this season... we watch... we wait.... we search out obscure weather models.

But it looks decent this far out

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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

About all we could ask for this season... we watch... we wait.... we search out obscure weather models.

But it looks decent this far out

Surprised the ICON hasn't been mentioned.

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1 hour ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Folks locking in D7 op solutions?

Fools

I enjoyed that Euro run but can't blame the populous here for running for the nearest bridge, even if it's just one 12z suite of op runs.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I enjoyed that Euro run but can't blame the populous here for running for the nearest bridge, even if it's just one 12z suite of op runs.

I was happy with it. I'd sign on the dotted line right now. That was near warning front ender with sleet/ice afterward. No chance of cracking freezing over interior on that. 

But then again, I'm not nearly as triggered by sleet and ice as most on here. 

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13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

About all we could ask for this season... we watch... we wait.... we search out obscure weather models.

But it looks decent this far out

Haven't checked the Korean or Australian models out yet, but I am sure they look pretty good. We make light of the situation, we have fun. 

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25 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Nice little block too building through Quebec into the SE part of Hudson Bay at 150 hours. Something to watch. Stronger this run.

That would help a lot in keeping the high anchored. That's something to look out for on future runs. Sharper ridging over that area will actually help us. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was happy with it. I'd sign on the dotted line right now. That was near warning front ender with sleet/ice afterward. No chance of cracking freezing over interior on that. 

But then again, I'm not nearly as triggered by sleet and ice as most on here. 

I'd sign right now for 4-6" plus some sleet and ice too.  Those are the base building events.  Just a good old QPF dump into a cold surface air mass.

You are right in your previous posts, the set up doesn't look like whatever happens it won't be some big nor'easter with closed mid levels going SE.  With that in mind, a juicy SWFE might be fun.

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58 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You're a Global Warming Weenie aren't you....they all think this last decade and a half is the new norm...so there should be no regression if you believe the climate has changed????  

That's not necessarily true, even evidence of climate change does not mean there will not be corrections and variations. It's more trends and averages over time. The state of the oceans and all of the teleconnections and oscillations and all of the other atmospheric processes we analyze have more effect on snowfall in any given year than climate change.  It's over time that climate change gets factored into the equation.  

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would help a lot in keeping the high anchored. That's something to look out for on future runs. Sharper ridging over that area will actually help us. 

 

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would help a lot in keeping the high anchored. That's something to look out for on future runs. Sharper ridging over that area will actually help us. 

Hope it holds or improves. Pretty complex flow into the CONUS though with all kinds of options. I'd love a nice SWFE with the usual 4-6 over to drizzle at this point. 

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8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Why would it be?  Only if you like cutters.

For one, I don't look at it, #2 you answered why it wasn't which is what i figured............:lol:

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

For one, I don't look at it, #2 you answered why it wasn't which is what i figured............:lol:

Then why were you surprised no one mentioned it?  :lol:

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i stay with my forecast and to many people have given up on the winter well that their problem not me . im staying with my forecast for next week and through march  with snowy times coming . today gef is going colder on today runs towards eps .

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20 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Then why were you surprised no one mentioned it?  :lol:

Did the GFS have a cutter? That got mentioned, Quite often actually earlier, I'll bet you if it shows snow next week it will be brought up......................:lol:

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