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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Dr. No living up to its name. 

6z eps was a bit better. These are one those deals that may come together quick on guidance since it’s all over the place. I’d rather that, then tracking a day 8 bullseye only to watch it go away with each run and hear weenies cry about it. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z eps was a bit better. These are one those deals that may come together quick on guidance since it’s all over the place. I’d rather that, then tracking a day 8 bullseye only to watch it go away with each run and hear weenies cry about it. 

Like Tip? :lol:

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

EPS is utterly devoid of that mid week thingy too - ...at least per 00z.

In fact, I'm rather bemused at everything this morning.  Not that anyone asked - 

But, there's all but one storm, granted a robust one  ... for western Ontario ...Otherwise, with two to perhaps three intensely deepy -EPO cold dump events track-able throughout the Euro run (for example), we are left being sold that nothing necessarily happens of consequence between those oscillations that span some 0C to -30C at 850s, along with concomitant wave roll-outs.  ..... nothing else.  Hmm.  I guess.  Oh, there are other cyclones dappled about the hemispheric space, but they are fractal blips ... gone upon the next run. There's no like clad signal ...anywhere.  It really is rather remarkable. 

The thing is, they are all doing this... Not just the Euro.  The GFS is clearly suffering from velocity induced "ripping" in the W-E coordinate...by the way.  I really suggest people get their heads around this concept limitation... perhaps even start modulating a "butt f*" index into their seasonal outlooks.  Ray's?  shit ... it woulda been spot on... if he had only included this one factor - if he had known about velocity saturation and this secondary interference problem ... this piece of utter shit resultant winter might have naturally fallen out of that arithmetic of factors.

Little tongue in cheek there... ha... but... see, part of the problem really is what I feel is a static problem with subtropical height abundance ( a positive anomaly that may be unnoticed of sorts...) that is girdled the hemisphere from HA all the way around to the N. Atlantic.  As mid ...now late winter height nadir reaching its maximum depth presses down from higher latitudes... it's defaulting the whole scope and scale into a hurried over abundant velocity rich environment. And one that is destructively interfering against more organized systemic events.   Some pricey words there ...but, just think of it this way (for the lay folk) ... it's hard to organize a marching band with hyperactive kids. 

Not sure you would predict a gradient issue heading into an el Nino....that is the issue...it was basically a la nina.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Congrats, All done flipping houses now?

I pray.  Still waiting for the orh record to be filed.  Sitting at a DD parking lot waiting for the word it’s done.  Gotta get this smelly cat out of this car!

  • Haha 1

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sounds like some of these weenies on here are thinking NBD. They’ll find out soon enough 

You've been right side many times before, so who knows.

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925 winds on nam near 50kts while we mix past 850. It will be windy for sure. I also wouldn’t expect forests annihilated either. 

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17 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

NWS has wind gusts up to 40 mph here on Monday, so maybe car's blown off roads?

Take the over 

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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Overnite ....Did EPS mute the EPO ridging at hr 144 or slide the mean position of the western ridge west a bit ?

No. There are three things to watch. The EPS retros the s/w trough i mentioned yesterday to a position that tries to pop ridging out west, after hr 96. We also have some blocking from a piece of -NAO that extends WSW from Greenland into the davis straits. At the same time a piece of energy breaks up and tries to induce cyclogenesis off the East Coast next week. White it could go to crap, that’s an interesting  look. Certainly catches my eye. Mid week probably lgt-mdt event at best. 

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Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said:

The valley here isn't a location that gets really high winds.

Probably won’t matter when you mix to 850. I certainly think you’ll be better than 40mph.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Looks like this GFS run brings the goods for the end of the month threat. If not *really* close...

Verbatim for Green Bay. :lol:

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Verbatim for Green Bay. :lol:

Meh...I'll take that look at HR 186...HP up north, low transferring off the NC coast.  Probably a lot of rain verbatim, but so far out, who cares?

 

 

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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Meh...I'll take that look at HR 186...HP up north, low transferring off the NC coast.  Probably a lot of rain verbatim, but so far out, who cares?

 

 

Right shouldn’t care. Just was commenting. Big low. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Right shouldn’t care. Just was commenting. Big low. 

I'm hoping the EURO picks up on the midweek event.  Looks like a repeat of Presidents' Day here.  Fluffy 2-4, spot 5+

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Ukie ramping it up for next week....too bad we can't see 132h.

 

 

Feb22_12zUkie120.gif

Feb22_12zUkie144.gif

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35 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

The valley here isn't a location that gets really high winds.

Either last year or the year before we had a heck of a windstorm.. trees snapping and power flashes in the distance, it definitely  was wild for a bit

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie ramping it up for next week....too bad we can't see 132h.

 

 

Feb22_12zUkie120.gif

Feb22_12zUkie144.gif

weathermodels will have hrs 126/132/138 when it updates shortly

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure you would predict a gradient issue heading into an el Nino....that is the issue...it was basically a la nina.

Mm... deeper than all that.. 

I don't personally believe that all which has travailed us can be watered down to merely mishandling the el Nino - 

Firstly,  ...this/that was no dig on you further above - like I said...there was a goodly bit of tongue-in-cheekism intended. 

Secondly, while I agree that the el nino appears to have failed, I believe the circulation base-line isn't either la nina.  As I intimated pretty clearly in that, there is a systemic crisis - for lack of better word - where every autumn when "normal" seasonal cooling heights begin to push south during ensuing winters, since roughly 2000 ..they are running into more resistance elevated geopotential medium - perhaps rooted in GW as an aside, but perhaps not.  Either way, there results in the gradient being anomalously sloped from roughly the 35th parallel to the 55th. The "likeness" that creates to to La Nina, is purely coincidental.  

It has to be... because SSTs/thermocline is/are crucial in determining the oceanic-atmospheric "coupled" state, and since the cooler SST part of that is missing... it cannot logically be La Nina.  SO, the only alternative conclusion is that something else is causing these compression preponderances and its concomitant accelerated overall wind speeds.   I think it's just normal seasonality from the N ...butting into pervasive heat saturation.  NCEP also recently published a statement in their ENSO write up ... that it does not appear the Pacific anomaly has ever yet coupled to the circulation system of the atmosphere so... It's just been a non-factor, which leads no where else.

Did you know that some airline reported 730 mph ground relative velocities over the open Atlantic ocean last week.  That's essentially sonic speeds! I mean, it's ground relative velocity, mind you - they weren't actually flying a commercial jetliner at sound relativistic velocities ... not a 747 anyway.  Now I don't know if that's ever happened before... if so, how frequent, but I suspect that sort of effect is increasingly evidenced where flights can either benefit vs delay from the maelstrom.  Recently ... a buddy of mine and his family set out on what turned into a major crusade, connection flight deal to ultimate destination, Fiji.  This was something outta of 1980s comedy about Plains Trains and Automobiles only not so haha. They ultimately ended spending three days of their allotted vacation, replete with squirming unforgiving 5 year old, ... somewhere around L.A. because a critical leg of the flight miss-calculated  (in this day and age of high tech Meteorology, device to wisdom and back) fuel due to higher consumption at slow flight rates in head winds...  The connection missed... it seemed the FAA couldn't rewire the transportation infrastructure if they wanted to...  These sort of occurrences are increasingly more common ... 

But that's a digression... My point is, a normal seasonal arctic/polar domain space resting over top even a subtly ubiquitous warm surplussed middle and upper air medium in the mid latitudes is f'n everything up.  

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... deeper than all that.. 

I don't personally believe that all which has travailed us can be watered down to merely mishandling the el Nino - 

Firstly,  ...this/that was no dig on you further above - like I said...there was a goodly bit of tongue-in-cheekism intended. 

Secondly, while I agree that the el nino appears to have failed, I believe the circulation base-line isn't either la nina.  As I intimated pretty clearly in that, there is a systemic crisis - for lack of better word - where every autumn when "normal" seasonal cooling heights begin to push south during ensuing winters, since roughly 2000 ..they are running into more resistance elevated geopotential medium - perhaps rooted in GW as an aside, but perhaps not.  Either way, there results in the gradient being anomalously sloped from roughly the 35th parallel to the 55th. The "likeness" that creates to to La Nina, is purely coincidental.  

It has to be... because SSTs/thermocline is/are crucial in determining the oceanic-atmospheric "coupled" state, and since the cooler SST part of that is missing... it cannot logically be La Nina.  SO, the only alternative conclusion is that something else is causing these compression preponderances and its concomitant accelerated overall wind speeds.   I think it's just normal seasonality from the N ...butting into pervasive heat saturation

Did you know that some airline report 740 mph ground relative velocities over the open Atlantic ocean last week.  That's essentially sonic speeds! I mean, it's ground relative velocity, mind you - they weren't actually flying a commercial jetliner at sound relativistic velocities ... not a 747 anyway.  Now I don't know if that's ever happened before... if so, how frequent, but I suspect that sort of effect is increasingly evidenced where flights can either benefit vs delay from the maelstrom.  Recently ... a buddy of mine and his family set out on what turned into a major crusade, connection flight deal to ultimate destination, Fiji.  This was something outta out of 1980s comedy about Plains Trains and Automobiles. They ultimately ended spending three days of their allotted vacation, replete with squirming unforgiving 5 year old, ... somewhere around L.A. because a critical leg of the flight miss-calculated  (in this day and age of high tech Meteorology, device to wisdom and back) fuel due to higher consumption at slow flight rates in head winds...  The connection missed... it seemed the FAA couldn't rewire the transportation infrastructure if they wanted to...  These sort of occurrences are increasingly more common ... 

But that's a digression... My point is, a normal seasonal arctic/polar domain space resting over top even a subtly ubiquitous warm surplussed middle and upper air medium in the mid latitudes is f'n everything up.  

 

I was checking space wether earlier today, the radiation load at flight level is ridiculous right now. Airline personel are now limited to 20 hours in the air a week to limit exposure. The Northeast flights are also the most 'radiated' flights in the country.

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Just now, cut said:

I was checking space wether earlier today, the radiation load at flight level is ridiculous right now. Airline personel are now limited to 20 hours in the air a week to limit exposure. The Northeast flights are also the most 'radiated' flights in the country.

 

Screen Shot 2019-02-22 at 12.37.10 PM.png

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