• Member Statistics

    16,542
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    nyrangers1022
    Newest Member
    nyrangers1022
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

Recommended Posts

27 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

good. seriously the rain is driving me to drink. My yard is a swamp. 

Heck I have been wanting to do some landscaping work in my yard since last summer. But it never really dried out and my yard is usually not that wet.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

good. seriously the rain is driving me to drink. My yard is a swamp. 

 

8 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Heck I have been wanting to do some landscaping work in my yard since last summer. But it never really dried out and my yard is usually not that wet.

 

Well, snow isn't going to help out the swampy conditions any. Snow melts...lol

What we need is an extended dry pattern for a few weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

good. seriously the rain is driving me to drink. My yard is a swamp. 

The mud here is so deep and out of control the families dog can no longer navigate the yard and wood planks are down to keep the car from sinking under

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Voyager said:

 

Well, snow isn't going to help out the swampy conditions any. Snow melts...lol

What we need is an extended dry pattern for a few weeks.

noted. so i'd like 20 degree temps so the ground freezes and my 90# dog stops destroying my yard. Add to that 5-10" snow weekly until spring. Then bright blue skies to dry things up a tad. Not to much to ask, right?

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

i cant be the only one sick of rain. I WANT F-ING SNOW damnit 

Dats my boy!!!  It’s starting g f

to look better bud. Hang in there. Get sleep now. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Voyager said:

 

Well, snow isn't going to help out the swampy conditions any. Snow melts...lol

What we need is an extended dry pattern for a few weeks.

With all due respect. We get it.

If we get your wish and go snowless, cold and dry for the rest of winter you may be banned from the winter boards. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, pawatch said:

Then we got to start worrying about sun angle.

West and Midwest below average temps and record snowfalls.

We should be ok with the rainfall we have coming. Wmspt suppose to crest @ 14.5.

The problem could be ice jams. 

River wise we are okay but small streams are pretty elevated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

River wise we are okay but small streams are pretty elevated.

Pine Creek has some pretty heavy ice on it right now. Not sure about some of the other cricks, ice wise.

I agree with you the small streams have a lot of effect on the bigger cricks and river.

Dy0HA-rWsAAO9eF.jpg:large.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Boy that looks nice!!

FV3 actually took a huge step back from its apocalypse snowfall I saw when I looked at it yesterday but the Euro and GFS both made encouraging changes in keeping the second wave much less phased and allowing a decent 4-8" snow here.  Euro's snow maps are a bit strange so not going off those vs. assuming their would be a slug of WAA snow at the start.  A better step than the models showing a Midwest blizzard yesterday.  This area is golden for a plowable snow if we simply get a slug of moisture thrown over us and do not face winds from the south too quickly. 

 

FV3 from earlier

image.png.7e63333e84b19ef00e2626e24d6ffdb2.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, canderson said:

The FV3 seems bipolar to me in general. Hope it’s on to something here.

More of an outlier. Of course I’m hugging the sh/t outta it but ain’t happening like that. 

On the other hand...Pappa G coming around should give hope to the snohounds. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

@canderson mentioned it a bit ago but the lack of rain the last couple days, at least for the southern part of the state, has not been modeled well at all. 

Yea every model failed horrribly. 

In other news we all should fly to Seattle. They’re gonna get a blizzard. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yea every model failed horrribly. 

In other news we all should fly to Seattle. They’re gonna get a blizzard. 

at least the models arent biased to rain vs snow.

 

They model both poorly of late :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yea every model failed horrribly. 

In other news we all should fly to Seattle. They’re gonna get a blizzard. 

Seattle's Point and Click is snow almost every day for the next week!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bubbler86 said:

Seattle's Point and Click is snow almost every day for the next week!

They don’t handle snow well, it might get bad. The entire NW is under the gun for the next week- impressive totals coming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More worthless computers every generation and even more worthless collage educated to run them. We could forecast better in the mid and late 90's. Its like every other media based thing the race to be first and right making wiled guess's with a computer has destroyed the integrity and accuracy of everything.       

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, canderson said:

They don’t handle snow well, it might get bad. The entire NW is under the gun for the next week- impressive totals coming.

That's what this kind of a -PNA will get them.

4indices.thumb.png.93cafe4f579656bf78c4c36ad5b5f9e3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

With all due respect. We get it.

If we get your wish and go snowless, cold and dry for the rest of winter you may be banned from the winter boards. 

I know I'm sick of the rain. If cold and dry the rest of the winter meant no more cutting rainstorms or rain in general, I'd almost take it.... almost. Just to think, it was all the way back to last February when this excessive precip train got rolling.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I know I'm sick of the rain. If cold and dry the rest of the winter meant no more cutting rainstorms or rain in general, I'd almost take it.... almost. Just to think, it was all the way back to last February when this excessive precip train got rolling.

Speaking of trains, this type of look is suggesting it rolls right into March.  From Pacific Puke to Pacific Choo-Choo....would just prefer to see them come in a few hundred miles south of Central Oregon. 

 

 

 

image.thumb.png.9530c54f689d3c2ad49c26c55a0d16f6.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I know I'm sick of the rain. If cold and dry the rest of the winter meant no more cutting rainstorms or rain in general, I'd almost take it.... almost. Just to think, it was all the way back to last February when this excessive precip train got rolling.

Agreed on the cutter and rain part but some of us have yet to have a decent snow ir 2. I’ll make my deal with the mud devil in the spring. For me freeze it up tight and we’ll worry about that later. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some thoughts on the overnight runs..

Models are seemingly starting to zero in on a cutting storm Tuesday that will have a high pressure placed to the north sufficient for at least initial wintry precipitation. Interesting thing about this setup is the parent low is being progged to cut up so far west that it may in fact help our cold air damming situation. The parent low moves into the western lakes region, stacks/matures and then we start seeing some secondary development on the coast. With the 0z suite, GFS has a stronger surface high to the north but the European has much colder temps aloft at 850 and esp 925mb, implying an extended snow-mix scenario for a large portion of C-PA. Both models put down a fair amount of frozen up front. 

This potential storm setup reminds me a bit of Dec 2009. Not that Dec 2009 (the 20th Mid-Atlantic bomb) but Dec 9, 2009. Similar setup, low to Wisconsin/western lakes region and weak secondary off the Mid-Atlantic. That one put down 6+ up front in places like UNV. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I think we are about to enter the best part of the winter for all of us.  Anyone out there?

45 and foggy makes for a slow forum I guess!  

I personally was not a big fan of the model trends yesterday afternoon and evening. Almost all guidance is converging on the second wave amping up in the Midwest which to me takes a large snow/MECS out of the equation as we are back down to CAD only. I think anything from a 4-6" event before the temps rise well above freezing to dry-slot and little precip at all is still on the table.  Very similar to a few of our events we had in the last few months.  FV3 and GFS are 2-4" before a deluge and temps rising between 35 and 45 LSV.  There are still hold outs showing a MECS type now situation such as the UKMET shown below.

This same situation is going to play out several times over the next 2 weeks and some models have lots of snow (GFS) while others have lots of rain (EURO and FV3).  Welcome to the gradient wars. 

 

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NECONUS_hr144 (1).png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.