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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh 32.1 in 2010 was one never forgotten or even his Euro pay melt was a classic.  This might be the burp runs that Scott Simard loved. Watch for a Messenger correction 

I wish Scott was still around to bang the RUC, Him and I had some great PM's, RIP

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The front end thump really hasn't changed that much on these warmer runs aloft...the impact on them seems to be more after 06z there and 09z up here....how far north in penetrates. But it still keeps going in the 6-8" range here...occasionally a 10 spot from some guidance and seems to be consistently 4-6 down in N CT. The warmer runs seem to erode it more in S CT and then cut it back in N MA to S NH a bit.

 

Yeah that's the thing - the thump hasn't changed much. Cut back a bit but still not anywhere close to a shut out. 

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32 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah that's interesting. So often with ZR we start oozing above 32F and melting stuff before the wind kicks up. 

The wind kinda helps knock the ice off the trees.....like if you took a stick and shook it, the ice fractures and falls off. And then if it's even slightly windy during the storm, ice doesn't accumulate really. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In trying to analyze if this arctic boundary is trying to jilt us ... 

if it's backing off in subtle amounts it might account for this warming profile.  

Is this the problem?
 

Using GFS here, but at 850 winds are already either west or south west, and this is at 18Z Sat.  Wouldn't we need a little more of a more northerly component, at least up in northern New England, to prevent the warmup?

I honestly don't have the skill set to understand if what is depicted (it might not even be the right map to illustrate this) is either a cause or an effect as to why the models keep churning out more warmth than expected.  But it seems that arctic high is more strung out west to east in terms of influence on the models, and that's why that low is allowed to barrel farther north than what we would normally expect.

I'll be honest I agree that things "just don't look right" compared to what we would normally see but I couldn't tell you why, lol.

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_4.png

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8 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

The wind kinda helps knock the ice off the trees.....like if you took a stick and shook it, the ice fractures and falls off. And then if it's even slightly windy during the storm, ice doesn't accumulate really. 

Wind aids in evaporative cooling. Swaying trees and power lines much more tendency to break. It has the opposite effect 

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