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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love how the euro continues to defecate on pike south snow. 

As at least a couple of people said today it’s fairly rare on this sort of storm to see the NAM and Euro be that different but they definitely are.  Especially in the corridor from BDL-PVD down to the coast and down in parts of my area.  The Euro hasn’t really had any massive busts this winter outside of the northern edge of the December MA snow event so maybe it’s due  

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4 hours ago, MaineJayhawk said:

You'd have to ask him why he is forecasting that much.  It's not a surprise models are ratcheting down the qpf if you pay attention to the knowledgeable folks here.  12" is great, let's enjoy it!

I’ll say just check our first snowfall map we posted. I take great pride in the fact that I actually made a forecast that night and didn’t rip and read modeled QPF.

Blends are great, but you also need to recognize model biases, and high medium range QPF is one.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I’ll say just check our first snowfall map we posted. I take great pride in the fact that I actually made a forecast that night and didn’t rip and read modeled QPF.

Blends are great, but you also need to recognize model biases, and high medium range QPF is one.

That was a good call with that map a day or so ago actually, I think i asked you if you were going with 12-16 or so, And that's what you had, Still looks like that's a safe bet even with some sleet involved along the coast if that does come to fruition.

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I asked Ryan this yesterday but he must have missed it. What is the accretion rate on snow that is clinging to branches power lines. Seems like bare surface would be better. 

Not sure I’ve seen a study on that specifically.

Snow will absorb the rain before it freezes, so it can be equally damaging to the canopies. You probably get less run off with covered covered trees, but more true ice with bare trees.

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I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways.

A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range.

Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo.

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47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good trend if you like ice damage. 

ugghhh, the recent trends have not been good. I think this Euro run gets me up to 35 now, so that might help out a bit. However, when the last second SE tick happens it will park us at 30 with a ton of rain...

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Not sure I’ve seen a study on that specifically.

Snow will absorb the rain before it freezes, so it can be equally damaging to the canopies. You probably get less run off with covered covered trees, but more true ice with bare trees.

Thanks today I was thinking more weight than if bare trees.

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways.

A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range.

Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo.

Wicked upglide

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways.

A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range.

Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo.

Hybrid, Certainly not your typical SWFE, Cross between a Miller B and SWFE would be my label.

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