CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Euro into SE MA again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Solution is crap. What do you mean. I keep hearing the thermals are wrong but other than the NAM everything is pretty torchy at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I love how the euro continues to defecate on pike south snow. As at least a couple of people said today it’s fairly rare on this sort of storm to see the NAM and Euro be that different but they definitely are. Especially in the corridor from BDL-PVD down to the coast and down in parts of my area. The Euro hasn’t really had any massive busts this winter outside of the northern edge of the December MA snow event so maybe it’s due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro into SE MA again? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro into SE MA again? Yeah im a bit confused by the map posted above....either i'm reading my 18z euro wrong or.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The push of warm air with those winds is very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: What do you mean. I keep hearing the thermals are wrong but other than the NAM everything is pretty torchy at 850 Def too warm at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Tiktock said: Yeah im a bit confused by the map posted above....either i'm reading my 18z euro wrong or.... What was confusing about the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 42 minutes ago, dryslot said: That is a 10:1 ratio map. Send some of your good ratios to GC. 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Southern stream stronger this run....thats a lot of qpf. Does anyone have a qpf map? I need to make up for my mundane ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 hours ago, MaineJayhawk said: You'd have to ask him why he is forecasting that much. It's not a surprise models are ratcheting down the qpf if you pay attention to the knowledgeable folks here. 12" is great, let's enjoy it! I’ll say just check our first snowfall map we posted. I take great pride in the fact that I actually made a forecast that night and didn’t rip and read modeled QPF. Blends are great, but you also need to recognize model biases, and high medium range QPF is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Did you install the Hyundai genny? I did not . Rip n destroy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Tiktock said: Yeah im a bit confused by the map posted above....either i'm reading my 18z euro wrong or.... Look at surface winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I asked Ryan this yesterday but he must have missed it. What is the accretion rate on snow that is clinging to branches power lines. Seems like bare surface would be better. Chris @OceanStWx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I’ll say just check our first snowfall map we posted. I take great pride in the fact that I actually made a forecast that night and didn’t rip and read modeled QPF. Blends are great, but you also need to recognize model biases, and high medium range QPF is one. That was a good call with that map a day or so ago actually, I think i asked you if you were going with 12-16 or so, And that's what you had, Still looks like that's a safe bet even with some sleet involved along the coast if that does come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I did not . Rip n destroy Sleet bitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looking at NAM soundings unstable layers. Hope I can see thunder sleet again last time was 12/09/05 , very very pink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Send some of your good ratios to GC. Does anyone have a qpf map? I need to make up for my mundane ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Outside of Blue, Green is my next favorite color. Not surprisingly Budman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Good trend if you like ice damage. This looks ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Damn. 2.5” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Damn. 2.5” here. You better hope that's mostly pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Thanks. Thanks. if the snow areas can muster a little better than 10:1 this could be some nice piling in NW Mass. Nice run for Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I asked Ryan this yesterday but he must have missed it. What is the accretion rate on snow that is clinging to branches power lines. Seems like bare surface would be better. Not sure I’ve seen a study on that specifically. Snow will absorb the rain before it freezes, so it can be equally damaging to the canopies. You probably get less run off with covered covered trees, but more true ice with bare trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways. A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range. Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Good trend if you like ice damage. ugghhh, the recent trends have not been good. I think this Euro run gets me up to 35 now, so that might help out a bit. However, when the last second SE tick happens it will park us at 30 with a ton of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Not sure I’ve seen a study on that specifically. Snow will absorb the rain before it freezes, so it can be equally damaging to the canopies. You probably get less run off with covered covered trees, but more true ice with bare trees. Thanks today I was thinking more weight than if bare trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways. A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range. Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo. Wicked upglide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Damn. 2.5” here. SE MA jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sleet bitch Zr Moreso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I’m looking at the storm in a couple ways. A classic SWFE is like a 6-10” storm. This is definitely amped up from typical, but how much higher should we be throwing snow totals? I wouldn’t want to be that far outside a 12-18” range. Also from strong WAA driven snow, it’s really hard to get ratios to deviate that much from climo. Hybrid, Certainly not your typical SWFE, Cross between a Miller B and SWFE would be my label. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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